According to a report on December 30 by Finance Association (Editor Liu Rui), cryptocurrency has undoubtedly been one of the most 'bullish' investment varieties this year: CoinMarketCap data shows that the total market value of cryptocurrencies surged from $1.65 trillion at the beginning of the year to $3.7 trillion, with Bitcoin's price rising from $37,700 last December to a historical high of $106,000.
However, if history is any guide, Bitcoin may peak in the next two to three weeks, meaning that Bitcoin bulls may need to act quickly to lock in profits.
Could Bitcoin peak in two weeks?
According to research firm K33, Bitcoin will reach a historical high in mid-January, just before the inauguration of the incoming U.S. president, Trump.
K33's statistical analysis shows that, on average, there are 318 days between the first peak and the last peak of a cryptocurrency cycle. The initial peak of the current cycle occurred on March 5 this year, indicating that the last peak of the current cycle may occur on January 17 next year. This date coincides closely with Trump's inauguration on January 20.
In fact, Trump's victory in the election coincidentally served as a catalyst for Bitcoin's significant rise at the end of this year. Trump, dubbed 'the most pro-cryptocurrency president in history,' has made several favorable commitments for Bitcoin—such as incorporating Bitcoin into national reserves, which have helped Bitcoin's price first break through the six-figure milestone.
However, K33 points out that as Trump's actual time in office approaches, cryptocurrency investors may find their hopes dashed:
"The market is likely to have unrealistic expectations about the speed of policy changes and overestimate the impact of the inauguration... We expect the current (Bitcoin) rally to peak before Trump's inauguration in mid-January and believe this area is a natural zone for risk reduction and short-term profit realization," wrote K33 research director Vetle Lunde in a December report.
Other analyses show similar results.
Another technical analyst familiar with Bitcoin's historical cycles, Adrian Zduńczyk, shares a similar view. He previously warned to prepare for Bitcoin's upcoming correction. He expects the price adjustment of Bitcoin to begin between the end of January and February, with a magnitude between 15% and 30%, before potentially recovering for another bullish market.
Meanwhile, another study by data analytics firm CCData this month also indicates that Bitcoin's price will peak next year, although they predict differing timing for the correction. According to the company, Bitcoin typically peaks 371 to 546 days after the last 'halving' event, the last of which occurred in April this year.
The company wrote: "This estimate provides two scenarios: one is the basic scenario, predicting that Bitcoin will peak in early Q2 next year, and the other is the bullish scenario, predicting that the highest price of the asset will peak in November next year."
The market still has no shortage of bulls.
Regardless of the outcome in January next year, a large number of people in the market remain optimistic about cryptocurrency's performance next year, with predictions for Bitcoin's year-end price ranging from $200,000 to $500,000, thanks to ongoing institutional adoption, loose regulation, and macroeconomic context, along with a broad rebound across the entire cryptocurrency sector.
Even CCData, which warns of a possible Bitcoin correction, indicates that under basic scenarios, they predict Bitcoin could reach $155,000. In a bullish market, Bitcoin could touch $195,000.
K33 also acknowledges that as Bitcoin's market cap grows larger, the so-called 'four-year price cycle' may gradually lose relevance.
"The relative impact of the halving is becoming less significant; Bitcoin is being adopted at the institutional level. Although the bubbles and downturns of Bitcoin will still be common characteristics, they arise from new developments," K33 said. #本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？