According to ChainCatcher, the probability of President-elect Trump approving the strategic Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office has fallen to 27% on Polymarket, down from a high of 60% after Trump's election. Currently, the betting amount for this event has exceeded $1.5 million.
Meanwhile, other prediction markets expect that Trump will ultimately accept Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, joining the ranks of crude oil and gold. For example, the probability of Bitcoin reserves occurring by January 2026 on Kalshi once reached 61%, the highest since December 21, but has currently fallen to 57%.
Additionally, users on Polymarket and Kalshi expect that Texas will take time to pass the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill. The probability of Texas passing this bill before March next year on Polymarket is 10%, while the probability on Kalshi is 24%.
