菊子姐
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The Cost of Cognitive Deficiencies:
Time is a wonderful thing; when you look back over a long enough period, Bitcoin's meteoric rise is intoxicating. But how many people can hold on from the beginning to the end? I can find relatively complete records of Bitcoin exchanges, with the historical lowest price at $2 in late 2011 and the highest record at $108,000 by the end of 2024! A 50,000-fold increase over 13 years!
Personal Cognitive Deficiencies: I entered the crypto space in November 2019, and at that time, I had the opportunity to meet a top Chinese IT expert in the crypto world who had his own team in Silicon Valley developing a public blockchain. I remember he impressed me deeply when he said, "If you have money, just hold onto some Bitcoin! In the future, Bitcoin will rise to $1 million," even though it was only around $6,000 at that time. He also mentioned that aside from money for food, all their surplus was used to buy and hold Bitcoin, whether it was during the peak at over $10,000 or the trough at over $3,000; he only bought more. He was very firm that Bitcoin would reach $1 million each! But for a newcomer like me, it felt like a far-fetched fantasy, and of course, I didn't act on it. I also knew that today, the amount of Bitcoin in his account is considerable. Over the years, I treated it like a story and never seriously planned it, instead continuously trading the Bitcoin and Ethereum I had for altcoins, which ultimately turned into air. Today, it's like one in the sky and one underground; this is the cost of the deficiencies in cognition.
I often wonder, if time could rewind to 2019, and I had seriously listened to his words and acted on them, what would the result have been?
Time is a wonderful thing; when you look back over a long enough period, Bitcoin's meteoric rise is intoxicating. But how many people can hold on from the beginning to the end? I can find relatively complete records of Bitcoin exchanges, with the historical lowest price at $2 in late 2011 and the highest record at $108,000 by the end of 2024! A 50,000-fold increase over 13 years!
Personal Cognitive Deficiencies: I entered the crypto space in November 2019, and at that time, I had the opportunity to meet a top Chinese IT expert in the crypto world who had his own team in Silicon Valley developing a public blockchain. I remember he impressed me deeply when he said, "If you have money, just hold onto some Bitcoin! In the future, Bitcoin will rise to $1 million," even though it was only around $6,000 at that time. He also mentioned that aside from money for food, all their surplus was used to buy and hold Bitcoin, whether it was during the peak at over $10,000 or the trough at over $3,000; he only bought more. He was very firm that Bitcoin would reach $1 million each! But for a newcomer like me, it felt like a far-fetched fantasy, and of course, I didn't act on it. I also knew that today, the amount of Bitcoin in his account is considerable. Over the years, I treated it like a story and never seriously planned it, instead continuously trading the Bitcoin and Ethereum I had for altcoins, which ultimately turned into air. Today, it's like one in the sky and one underground; this is the cost of the deficiencies in cognition.
I often wonder, if time could rewind to 2019, and I had seriously listened to his words and acted on them, what would the result have been?
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Survival Rules:
Carved in my mind: How do I survive in this market?
Such a drop is really child's play for the seasoned investors who have experienced the famous "3.12" and "9.14" market events. Many new investors are lamenting, saying it's too brutal, NO!
The daily drop in Bitcoin did not reach over 20%, and the average drop in altcoins did not exceed 35%, so it cannot be called brutal; it's just a small scratch.
In a bull market, 70% of funds should be used to reserve spot assets, and 30% can be used for the contract market. It's best to manage them in two separate wallets.
The biggest enemy in contracts is not the market maker, but yourself. You need to establish a trading system that constrains yourself and then strictly adhere to it. Without this, everything else is just empty talk.
First, determine the leverage and position size, and prepare fire-fighting measures (stop-loss or averaging down strategies).
From the moment you open a position, set a stop-loss level. If the direction is correct, use a trailing stop; if the direction is wrong, do not easily change the stop-loss level. If you happen to get stopped out, do not rush back in immediately. If you lose three trades in a row, stop trading for the day; it indicates that your state of mind is not right and you may be a bit too excited.
Learn to take profits in a timely manner: for example, when profits reach 100%, you can withdraw the margin and let the profits run. When it reaches 200%, reduce most of your position, leaving a small amount until the end. This part will either get stopped out or yield significant gains. Because you have withdrawn your principal, your mindset will be much more relaxed, allowing you to have the patience to hold onto the position.
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have touched previous lows again and rebounded, while the market remains high and volatile. Ether returning to 3500-3700 is still bearish.
$BTC $ETH
#加密市场回调 #市场调整策略
Carved in my mind: How do I survive in this market?
Such a drop is really child's play for the seasoned investors who have experienced the famous "3.12" and "9.14" market events. Many new investors are lamenting, saying it's too brutal, NO!
The daily drop in Bitcoin did not reach over 20%, and the average drop in altcoins did not exceed 35%, so it cannot be called brutal; it's just a small scratch.
In a bull market, 70% of funds should be used to reserve spot assets, and 30% can be used for the contract market. It's best to manage them in two separate wallets.
The biggest enemy in contracts is not the market maker, but yourself. You need to establish a trading system that constrains yourself and then strictly adhere to it. Without this, everything else is just empty talk.
First, determine the leverage and position size, and prepare fire-fighting measures (stop-loss or averaging down strategies).
From the moment you open a position, set a stop-loss level. If the direction is correct, use a trailing stop; if the direction is wrong, do not easily change the stop-loss level. If you happen to get stopped out, do not rush back in immediately. If you lose three trades in a row, stop trading for the day; it indicates that your state of mind is not right and you may be a bit too excited.
Learn to take profits in a timely manner: for example, when profits reach 100%, you can withdraw the margin and let the profits run. When it reaches 200%, reduce most of your position, leaving a small amount until the end. This part will either get stopped out or yield significant gains. Because you have withdrawn your principal, your mindset will be much more relaxed, allowing you to have the patience to hold onto the position.
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have touched previous lows again and rebounded, while the market remains high and volatile. Ether returning to 3500-3700 is still bearish.
$BTC $ETH
#加密市场回调 #市场调整策略
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It's like being a parent for the first time; a child will make you flustered, and then you have a few more little ones 😅
Hello everyone, after waking up from sleep, the sky has fallen. No one is to blame but myself for being greedy. The principal is 100 yuan, at the peak it was 2000 yuan. In fact, at this amount, as long as no multiple contracts are held together, the situation of being liquidated is basically nonexistent. My position was not high; I thought it had hit the bottom, but that was wishful thinking. Suddenly woke up in the early morning, opened my phone, and it was all liquidation messages. Originally, with one position, I could handle a single order at most, and I was used to it. However, I got greedy and thought the market would recover, but it did not come! Thinking that this morning, I would open my phone and see my funds doubled, I did not expect this outcome. While I was sleeping, I didn't even have time to hedge. This is a lesson, and I hope everyone must manage their positions well. Unless the principal is large, never exceed the position you can manage. Do not blame the market, stay calm, and keep going!
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Wall Street is robbing again, always causing trouble in the middle of the night, leaving many heavily invested contract partners waking up confused, rubbing their eyes, thinking they are dreaming, probably their accounts have been completely emptied, and it's not even done falling.
This is the bloody reality of the financial market. I am waiting with a light position for it to come down. Seeing so many people crazily shouting long positions is nerve-wracking; it's a 7-second memory, and one must always remain vigilant, with stop-loss orders. In a bull market, one must focus on spot trading, and even light contracts must have stop-losses. Surviving is the way to go.
The bull market has not had any significant corrections; Bitcoin needs to fall more than 20% to be considered reasonable, and others over 50%. A good wash is healthy.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
This is the bloody reality of the financial market. I am waiting with a light position for it to come down. Seeing so many people crazily shouting long positions is nerve-wracking; it's a 7-second memory, and one must always remain vigilant, with stop-loss orders. In a bull market, one must focus on spot trading, and even light contracts must have stop-losses. Surviving is the way to go.
The bull market has not had any significant corrections; Bitcoin needs to fall more than 20% to be considered reasonable, and others over 50%. A good wash is healthy.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
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Every time I see Vitalik Buterin, I think of Marco, and when I see Marco, I think of Hawking, who studied sunspots and went to Peach Blossom Island. These three extremely smart minds all have alien characteristics. Haha
#ETH
#ETH
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Ethereum had a net inflow of 204 million in the past 7 days, ranking first across the entire network. The Trump family is also continuously buying in; it has become a hot asset. After the holiday, it is expected to take the lead.
If there is a chance to return to around 3140, it would be a good opportunity to get in.
If there is a chance to return to around 3140, it would be a good opportunity to get in.
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Historic large-scale options expiration:
· On Friday (December 27, 2024), $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, which will have an impact on the market. Market sentiment has been very cautious from yesterday to today, just waiting for the hammer to drop. Overseas it's Christmas, and funds are also in hibernation, with the whales watching the stakes for long and short bets before deciding to act. Technically, Bitcoin's downward move on the daily level is still incomplete.
The most ideal scenario is to break below the previous low before moving upward. 92000/88000
· On Friday (December 27, 2024), $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, which will have an impact on the market. Market sentiment has been very cautious from yesterday to today, just waiting for the hammer to drop. Overseas it's Christmas, and funds are also in hibernation, with the whales watching the stakes for long and short bets before deciding to act. Technically, Bitcoin's downward move on the daily level is still incomplete.
The most ideal scenario is to break below the previous low before moving upward. 92000/88000
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The Fed's monetary policy easing space is shrinking, suppressing speculative enthusiasm. Bitcoin has fallen more than 10% for four consecutive days and then rebounded. This pullback is not too significant in a bull market, but many altcoins have been cut in half, and this wave has wiped out a large number of long positions in altcoins. Many people are likely resting in bed this weekend, not wanting to move. Those directly investing in Bitcoin funds (ETFs) have also ended a 15-day streak of inflows, highlighting the shift in market sentiment. They also need to celebrate the New Year, so they are tightening their pockets.
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The weekend is relatively calm, and the market is also recovering. Ethereum's recent adjustment has just hit the monthly line at 1/2 and the daily strong support EMA144 before pulling back. The top divergence has completed the downward leg, which can be considered a standard retracement posture. However, Bitcoin, from a technical perspective, has not adjusted properly. Next week is expected to be a volatile market.
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The ETH I mentioned this morning has really reached around 3100, and the market is wailing again. The market is like this, there is no lowest, only lower.
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In the past, the cryptocurrency world was played by grassroots individuals, and no one was professional! However, in the last two years, the wolves of Wall Street have arrived, which means we are competing on the same track as professional players, and we are the most succulent lambs in their eyes.
There are some top experts on Wall Street who have become knights of the round table, working in collaboration. Some select targets, some raise funds, some buy and spread false information, and some are responsible for trading. It's like a movie script, with everyone playing different roles, so if you don't maintain a certain level of vigilance, you can't compete with them.
In the past, Bitcoin was the ideal sanctuary for crypto punks, but now it has been discovered by Trump and others as the best tool for harvesting the world; it is no longer pure, like a yellow flower girl sold into the red chamber. Once you redefine its identity, you must block out your sentimental feelings.
Staring at the market can lead to a loss of focus.
Every morning, I check Jinshi data, browse some important news, and look at the major event calendar! I check the greed index! I see whether the overall news is bullish or bearish; all news that comes out is purposeful. Just like these past days, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he is not considering Bitcoin for the time being, and there are reports of Musk being investigated, while technical indicators show a top formation on the daily chart. Isn't that just waiting for him to crash down below?
I am waiting for Ethereum at 3100 and Bitcoin at 92000!
There are some top experts on Wall Street who have become knights of the round table, working in collaboration. Some select targets, some raise funds, some buy and spread false information, and some are responsible for trading. It's like a movie script, with everyone playing different roles, so if you don't maintain a certain level of vigilance, you can't compete with them.
In the past, Bitcoin was the ideal sanctuary for crypto punks, but now it has been discovered by Trump and others as the best tool for harvesting the world; it is no longer pure, like a yellow flower girl sold into the red chamber. Once you redefine its identity, you must block out your sentimental feelings.
Staring at the market can lead to a loss of focus.
Every morning, I check Jinshi data, browse some important news, and look at the major event calendar! I check the greed index! I see whether the overall news is bullish or bearish; all news that comes out is purposeful. Just like these past days, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he is not considering Bitcoin for the time being, and there are reports of Musk being investigated, while technical indicators show a top formation on the daily chart. Isn't that just waiting for him to crash down below?
I am waiting for Ethereum at 3100 and Bitcoin at 92000!
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Open your eyes, yesterday's story is playing out again, and many people are likely sleepless.
The first order of Ether has been received, but the second and third orders have not arrived!
Except for Bitcoin being a bit stable, many altcoins have dropped over 10%.
As mentioned yesterday, technical indicators can be referenced 90% of the time, but the other 10% is when the big players come to harvest you; there are no technicals to speak of! The only way to survive is to set a stop-loss properly. Surviving in this market is the key!
Yesterday, I mentioned that newcomers need some basic knowledge to arm themselves; all other analyses can only be references and should not be followed blindly. If someone else's analysis aligns with your own, you can buy in; even if you incur a loss, you must accept it.
The first order of Ether has been received, but the second and third orders have not arrived!
Except for Bitcoin being a bit stable, many altcoins have dropped over 10%.
As mentioned yesterday, technical indicators can be referenced 90% of the time, but the other 10% is when the big players come to harvest you; there are no technicals to speak of! The only way to survive is to set a stop-loss properly. Surviving in this market is the key!
Yesterday, I mentioned that newcomers need some basic knowledge to arm themselves; all other analyses can only be references and should not be followed blindly. If someone else's analysis aligns with your own, you can buy in; even if you incur a loss, you must accept it.
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The correct way for beginners to enter the circle
Yesterday's forecast for today's content. Early in the morning, when I opened my eyes, the market plunged. It is estimated that some beginners with high leverage contracts may have missed the chance to read this article and died in the first episode.
This is the cryptocurrency market; every chip is stained with blood, and all the revelry is built on countless bones.
The correct way for beginners to enter the circle:
First: You cannot work full-time and trade cryptocurrencies at the same time. Bull markets are peak resignation periods for beginners, while bear markets see them obediently returning to deliver takeout or drive for ride-sharing services!
For someone who knows nothing about technology, cannot read news, and has no understanding of the cryptocurrency market, coming full-time to trade cryptocurrencies is like sneaking onto the highway on the first day of learning to drive; if you can survive, it's a blessing.
This is the cryptocurrency market; every chip is stained with blood, and all the revelry is built on countless bones.
The correct way for beginners to enter the circle:
First: You cannot work full-time and trade cryptocurrencies at the same time. Bull markets are peak resignation periods for beginners, while bear markets see them obediently returning to deliver takeout or drive for ride-sharing services!
For someone who knows nothing about technology, cannot read news, and has no understanding of the cryptocurrency market, coming full-time to trade cryptocurrencies is like sneaking onto the highway on the first day of learning to drive; if you can survive, it's a blessing.
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Not bad
Crypto Circle Scholar: Is the Ethereum market going to experience drastic fluctuations on December 19? How should you respond in a sharp decline?
The current price of Ethereum is 3700. It is now 4:35 AM Beijing time. Before yesterday's report, the Ethereum price was 3940 and has now dropped more than 200 points. I have said that the market is never short of opportunities. As long as we protect the chips in our hands, the bus we are waiting for will naturally come. The major support point is approaching quickly, whether it can reach it is still unknown; just wait. Do not chase after the market during sharp rises and falls; wait for the stop loss to be confirmed.
The daily K-line had a highest point of 3910 and a lowest point of 3630, temporarily breaking the EMA30 support at the critical point of 3645. The bearish trend is very strong in the short term, with MACD decreasing in volume, DIF and DEA still spreading at high levels. The Bollinger Bands are showing a contraction, and the K-line has dropped below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 3815. Pay attention to the lower support point at 3540 as a trial point for long positions. After the KDJ crosses downward, it starts to spread. In the overall trend of a sharp decline, wait for the stop loss; do not engage in chasing high and selling low to prevent both sides of the main force from clearing.
The four-hour K-line has already broken the EMA120 trend indicator support at 3770, and now support has turned into resistance. MACD is decreasing in volume, and both DIF and DEA have fallen below the 0 axis. The lower line of the Bollinger Bands at 3750 has been broken. The K-line has entered the oversold phase, and it is not far from extreme overbought. Prepare to get in decisively at the position; do not hesitate. Those looking to short can pay attention to the support zone in the range of 3550 to 3500. If it does not break, profits can be taken again. Conservative traders should enter in this range and manage their positions well.
Short-term reference: Safety first. Remember, the market is never a hundred percent certain, so always set stop-losses. Safety first; small losses and big profits are the goal.
Shorting trial point: 3750 to 3800, stop-loss at 50 points, target looking at 3700 to 3650, breaking position looking at 3600 to 3550.
Going long trial point: 3550 to 3600, defense at 3500, stop-loss at 50 points, target looking at 3650 to 3700, breaking position looking at 3750 to 3800.
Don’t forget, the darkest moment is often just before dawn. On the road to pursuing dreams, you are never alone; you still have me.
I am a scholar in the crypto circle, a warrior who has always been protecting the retail investors. I wish my fans to achieve financial freedom in 2024. Let's keep going together!
The first place in the prize guessing game has already been announced, and the prize has been distributed. Follow me to check the winners.
$ETH #以太坊行情分析 #ETH合约波段
The current price of Ethereum is 3700. It is now 4:35 AM Beijing time. Before yesterday's report, the Ethereum price was 3940 and has now dropped more than 200 points. I have said that the market is never short of opportunities. As long as we protect the chips in our hands, the bus we are waiting for will naturally come. The major support point is approaching quickly, whether it can reach it is still unknown; just wait. Do not chase after the market during sharp rises and falls; wait for the stop loss to be confirmed.
The daily K-line had a highest point of 3910 and a lowest point of 3630, temporarily breaking the EMA30 support at the critical point of 3645. The bearish trend is very strong in the short term, with MACD decreasing in volume, DIF and DEA still spreading at high levels. The Bollinger Bands are showing a contraction, and the K-line has dropped below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 3815. Pay attention to the lower support point at 3540 as a trial point for long positions. After the KDJ crosses downward, it starts to spread. In the overall trend of a sharp decline, wait for the stop loss; do not engage in chasing high and selling low to prevent both sides of the main force from clearing.
The four-hour K-line has already broken the EMA120 trend indicator support at 3770, and now support has turned into resistance. MACD is decreasing in volume, and both DIF and DEA have fallen below the 0 axis. The lower line of the Bollinger Bands at 3750 has been broken. The K-line has entered the oversold phase, and it is not far from extreme overbought. Prepare to get in decisively at the position; do not hesitate. Those looking to short can pay attention to the support zone in the range of 3550 to 3500. If it does not break, profits can be taken again. Conservative traders should enter in this range and manage their positions well.
Short-term reference: Safety first. Remember, the market is never a hundred percent certain, so always set stop-losses. Safety first; small losses and big profits are the goal.
Shorting trial point: 3750 to 3800, stop-loss at 50 points, target looking at 3700 to 3650, breaking position looking at 3600 to 3550.
Going long trial point: 3550 to 3600, defense at 3500, stop-loss at 50 points, target looking at 3650 to 3700, breaking position looking at 3750 to 3800.
Don’t forget, the darkest moment is often just before dawn. On the road to pursuing dreams, you are never alone; you still have me.
I am a scholar in the crypto circle, a warrior who has always been protecting the retail investors. I wish my fans to achieve financial freedom in 2024. Let's keep going together!
The first place in the prize guessing game has already been announced, and the prize has been distributed. Follow me to check the winners.
$ETH #以太坊行情分析 #ETH合约波段
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Surviving is the way to go
Those who have never been on the rooftop are not qualified to gaze upon death.
Since entering the circle in 2018, I have witnessed the familiar young lives in the cryptocurrency world fade away. Having once lingered on the rooftop myself, I can be considered reborn. Therefore, I view the market with a calmness greater than most, seeing today’s crazed newbies as reflections of my past self.
Seeing others make hundreds of thousands to millions as if it’s a game, doesn’t it make your blood boil when you see others flaunting their long strings of profit numbers? Are you digging out your hidden cash? Are you checking your credit card limit, looking into online loans? Are you inquiring about mortgage or car loans? Are you telling your family that you have a good business opportunity that needs some circulating funds? Do you feel that if others can do it, you can too? Are you fantasizing about living in a townhouse or a detached villa soon?
There are countless paths to wealth, but without risk control, it’s a dead end!
Understand a fundamental logic: finance does not create wealth; it simply redistributes it. To put it bluntly, it’s about how to turn the money in your pocket into money in my pocket. Those wolves on Wall Street are just experts at transferring money from the pockets of the poor to the pockets of the rich. They are merely high-level pickpockets.
Everyone is making money like crazy. Whose money are they making?
So, clarify your logic before taking action. It's like learning to swim; if you don’t have a swimming ring, you better figure out where the deep end is and where the shallow end is. Is it just a matter of swallowing a few mouthfuls of water or are you preparing to enjoy a lifespan of XX...
Think it through before acting!
In the next episode, the correct way for newbies to enter the circle!
Those who have never been on the rooftop are not qualified to gaze upon death.
Since entering the circle in 2018, I have witnessed the familiar young lives in the cryptocurrency world fade away. Having once lingered on the rooftop myself, I can be considered reborn. Therefore, I view the market with a calmness greater than most, seeing today’s crazed newbies as reflections of my past self.
Seeing others make hundreds of thousands to millions as if it’s a game, doesn’t it make your blood boil when you see others flaunting their long strings of profit numbers? Are you digging out your hidden cash? Are you checking your credit card limit, looking into online loans? Are you inquiring about mortgage or car loans? Are you telling your family that you have a good business opportunity that needs some circulating funds? Do you feel that if others can do it, you can too? Are you fantasizing about living in a townhouse or a detached villa soon?
There are countless paths to wealth, but without risk control, it’s a dead end!
Understand a fundamental logic: finance does not create wealth; it simply redistributes it. To put it bluntly, it’s about how to turn the money in your pocket into money in my pocket. Those wolves on Wall Street are just experts at transferring money from the pockets of the poor to the pockets of the rich. They are merely high-level pickpockets.
Everyone is making money like crazy. Whose money are they making?
So, clarify your logic before taking action. It's like learning to swim; if you don’t have a swimming ring, you better figure out where the deep end is and where the shallow end is. Is it just a matter of swallowing a few mouthfuls of water or are you preparing to enjoy a lifespan of XX...
Think it through before acting!
In the next episode, the correct way for newbies to enter the circle!