The performance of Bitcoin during the Christmas and New Year holidays in the past five years shows that the volatility from December 20 to January 6 is quite significant. However, except for 2020, the actual rise and fall have been within 10% in the other years.
In 80% of the years, the price performance of coins in the following two months is quite good. If you narrow the bottom-fishing time to one week after New Year’s, the chance of making a profit is still 60%.
Observing the Nasdaq index performance over the past five years, there was significant fluctuation during Christmas, yet the overall rise and fall were not large. Therefore, it can be inferred that the US stock market will not have a significant negative impact on Bitcoin after the holiday.
Although this round of the bull market is significantly affected by the inflow and outflow of BTC ETF, the Nasdaq index did not show a noticeable decline during and after Christmas, having little impact on crypto.
Bitwise Europe Research Director Andre Dragosch stated that he has accurately predicted BTC for months, but after Bitcoin's 8% drop last week, he warned that Bitcoin might further decline in the coming weeks.
Andre stated: 'The macro situation is that the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma. Despite cutting interest rates three times since September, the financial environment continues to tighten.'
Meanwhile, according to the Truflation US inflation indicator, the real-time consumer price inflation indicator has accelerated to a new high in recent months. Therefore, we may see more pain in the coming weeks, but considering the continued tailwind from BTC supply shortages, this could be a buying opportunity.
About ETH
The market lacks obvious positive news to support Ethereum's sustained rebound. Investor sentiment has become conservative, and Ethereum's dominance has declined again.
Since the launch of the Ethereum ETF in early summer 2024, this downward trend has gradually become apparent. Even though these funds have attracted billions of dollars in inflows, they have not managed to change the trend.
For Ethereum investors, a full position may still require patience.
It is expected that Ethereum may welcome new upward opportunities in the first quarter of 2025, injecting confidence into the market and reversing the current sluggish state. Especially in March, Ethereum's upgrade will occur, meaning now until January could be a good opportunity to accumulate ETH.
When others panic, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I panic. You know it when I say it, but if you can't do it, if you always follow the crowd and sway with the wind, how can you make money?
When trading, do not pursue perfection; the pursuit of perfection is a greedy and even extreme mentality.
Because of the pursuit of perfection, it is difficult to accept flaws and cannot bear even very small drawdowns. Attempting to capture all fluctuations and missing no market movements can lead to obsession, even with altcoins. Everyone truly has no time to understand your altcoins.
You say 100,000 for Bitcoin is too expensive, but I think it’s very normal. Good things are always expensive. The woman you like must be beautiful. If you have a bit of courage to be a goddess's admirer and hold on to Bitcoin for a few years without selling, you wouldn’t be so anxious.
Give up the idea of getting rich quickly with contract altcoins. Getting rich is gambling, and excessive gambling leads to high-frequency monitoring, which ultimately causes emotional fluctuations that make it impossible to patiently wait for returns.
To invest, you must have a high-level perspective to steadily walk each step in the cycle and have more opportunities to gain. You must not lose sight of the goal, resort to tricks, and end up losing yourself.