Last night, Bitcoin tested the high point again, nearing 99,500, but there are still significant internal differences in the market. Bears are worried about market sluggishness, while bulls remain steadfast in their beliefs, even to the point of 'carving a boat to seek a sword.' Given the current height, time node, and cycle process, such differences are normal.
In my view, if Bitcoin can stabilize and not drop within the range of 90,000-92,000, then after a period of adjustment, the secondary market is expected to see a turnaround. However, if it falls below this range, the adjustment period may be extended accordingly. Given the current situation, there is little likelihood of falling below this range in the short term, so investors can start to pay attention and seek trading opportunities in the secondary market.
In the short term, Bitcoin faces a resistance level at 99,500 and a support level at 96,500. Our target price is 102-104k, and investors can develop trading strategies accordingly.
Last night, the market was bustling. Whether the altcoins led Bitcoin's rise or Bitcoin drove the leap of altcoins, this detail is no longer important. The key is that market sentiment and confidence have significantly recovered. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 100,000, while the altcoin market has long been in an upward mode.
Recently, the focus of the altcoin market has mainly been on the Grayscale-selected altcoins, such as ZEN, LPT, BAT, etc. Among them, ZEN has performed particularly well, with an astonishing increase, which has also driven other low-market-cap altcoins held by Grayscale, such as LPT and BAT, to rise accordingly.
Another trend worth noting is the rebound around Binance's new coins. Projects like MOVE and ME have performed well in this wave of rebound, attracting the attention of many investors.
The logic for playing altcoins now:
Follow the big money; find an angle and funds will flock in. So I give small capital players an idea: under the current market conditions, the probability of losing money is relatively small. Find a target with institutional backing, go all in, and take profits of 20-30 points before withdrawing. This is more effective than diversifying funds to buy other targets.
Trump is about to take office, and the related concept coins should soon be speculated on. In the upcoming altcoin market, everyone can participate according to the logic of presidential coin selection and Grayscale's strict selection.
Trump's strict selection includes: AAVE, ENA, LINK, ETH, ONDO
Trump-related concept coins: RSR, ZRX, COW
Grayscale-selected coins: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, FIL, BAT
In a bull market, market fluctuations are quite intense. Bitcoin's pullback typically does not exceed 20%, Ethereum rarely exceeds 40%, while a pullback of around 30% for other altcoins is a relatively common phenomenon. Importantly, during a bull market, we should maintain a certain position, accept and adapt to small pullbacks, and avoid losing big due to minor setbacks, thus not missing out on the overall upward trend.
Current market trading tactics tend to actively intervene during significant drops by buying low. In the face of a downtrend, we should build positions in batches to avoid going all in at once. Here’s a practical operational mantra: 'Buy small on small dips, buy big on big dips, don’t buy when it’s not dipping; sell small on small rises, sell big on big rises, don’t sell when it’s not rising.' Following this strategy, we can effectively avoid chasing highs and achieve a role transition from 'leeks' to 'scythes.'
Looking ahead, the starting point of the new market trend is expected to manifest in early January 2025. As institutions and listed companies complete their annual investment return settlements, Wall Street institutions will reallocate in the new year, and January is expected to be a period of frequent significant movements. Meanwhile, retail investors in North America will also return to the cryptocurrency market after the holidays, injecting new vitality into the market. Therefore, we need to be patient and wait until the market officially starts.
During this period, our core strategy is to hold onto our chips and wait for the concentrated introduction of cryptocurrency policies after Trump takes office at the beginning of the year, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025. Furthermore, as more countries incorporate Bitcoin into their asset reserves and the long-pending altcoin market is about to explode, we are likely to welcome broader investment opportunities.