This year, Christmas did not turn into a Christmas disaster; the market welcomed a slight warming sentiment, which is actually thanks to last night's U.S. stock market closing up. The previous drop in Bitcoin was also influenced by the U.S. stock market. If the U.S. stock market drops, BTC will also fluctuate in the next morning or midnight. However, if it closes up before the 25th, it means this Christmas will likely be safely passed. The subsequent market conditions will gradually show the expectations of the market before Trump takes office.

Looking at Ethereum, its trend is also relatively stable. Today it once broke through the first resistance level of 3500. The rebound of Ethereum's price is not surprising because the ETF inflow data for Ethereum is positive. Therefore, with the support of funds, there won't be panic. If you have been following Crab Boss for a while, you should understand this logic, so we won’t emphasize it here.

In the upcoming January market, the narrative can be said to be biased towards the bulls. First, around the 6th of the month, the first batch of FTX compensations is expected, with an amount of about 16 billion dollars. Objectively, most of this capital will flow back to Ethereum, including altcoins. After all, this compensation is aimed at retail investors. The cost-performance ratio of Bitcoin at this position is not high, so in the eyes of those victims, acquiring this compensation capital, Ethereum and leading altcoins are likely to be their selected targets.

Next is the well-known Trump taking office on January 20. With a series of economic stimulus measures, including whether Trump can fulfill the cryptocurrency policy easing and Bitcoin becoming America's strategic reserve, this is our expectation. Therefore, from the perspective of early layout, if there are opportunities in the near future, besides the FTX concept, the Trump concept and the Musk concept will become the main themes in January next year.

When will the altcoin season actually come?

Speaking of boat and sword, when a big market goes to the first wave, it will first welcome a small altcoin market, and then after a slight adjustment, it will usher in the second wave of a big altcoin market!

And now this round of market has lasted for three months, and BTC has adjusted at the critical position of 100,000. At the same time, the Bitcoin dominance has also decreased, oscillating for about 4 weeks. The adjustment time is already in place, which provides a foundation for the altcoin explosion. Don't worry too much about the full position in altcoins; the arrival of the altcoin season not only requires Bitcoin but also sufficient emotion and capital overflow.

For a true altcoin season to come, Bitcoin needs to rise slowly, and Ethereum must maintain a strong upward trend. The combination of these two is the best driving force for emotion and capital. Everyone can recall that in November, the slight strength of altcoins experienced the Bitcoin draining phase, combined with Ethereum frequently breaking pressure levels and standing above 4000. Looking back during the Bitcoin draining, and then to Ethereum's surge, many altcoins have completed more than 2-3 times their movements in this stage, while the weaker ones have done over 50%. Therefore, without meeting these conditions, it is difficult for altcoins to have a comprehensive explosive day.

Back to the topic, saying these things is not to stifle everyone's confidence and expectations but to make everyone understand that while we are looking forward to the altcoin season, we must also be wary of the risks of decline. Once Bitcoin and Ethereum start to adjust, altcoins will also face adjustments, so we just need to do well in the market conditions of each stage.

The altcoin season will not happen directly here, and the real expectations will change the pattern of altcoins through the statements released after Trump takes office and the inflow of funds. Relying solely on the current capital situation, it is difficult for altcoins to meet everyone's expectations.

Since Trump's election, why has there been a bull market? Why has Ethereum risen? Why have altcoins risen? I have analyzed everything that should be analyzed from various dimensions, and you can flip back to the previous articles by Crab Boss.

ETH cannot yet be considered a true rally. It must wait until it continuously increases in volume to be considered in the rally phase. A true rally is characterized by continuous volume increase, and when the price and volume rise together, it will happen quickly.

In this round, the game between retail investors and institutional investors is very fierce. The vast majority of people will not wait for that 1% rally time, and among those who do wait, most do not know when to run.

Once ETH starts to rally, the whole rhythm will be very fast. At the bottom, we need to overcome fear, and at the top, we need to overcome greed. When it's time to run, I will notify everyone immediately, and when running, don't drag your feet.

Where there is volatility, there are great opportunities. Next year's bull market will be much better than today, and the fluctuations will be more intense. A washout is a necessary part of the process. In this market environment, without some patience and faith, it is very difficult to truly make money.

Additionally, recently Zen has been pumped by Grayscale. Let's take a look at what altcoins are related to the Grayscale concept.

American concepts: XRP, SOL, SUI, LINK, LTC, UNI

Grayscale holdings: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, (ENA, DOGE)