This round of the Bitcoin bull market originates from Trump's election, especially at the previous high point of $70,000, which was also when Trump's election situation became clear, and Bitcoin began to soar all the way, eventually breaking through $100,000. First, during the entire Trump campaign process, especially in the month following his successful election, there were continuous rumors about Bitcoin being included in the U.S. strategic management assets and even the balance sheet: At the Bitcoin2024 conference held in July 2024, Trump clearly promised in his speech to 'never sell' the Bitcoin held by the government and future acquisitions, insisting on the concept of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve'; on December 16, Bitcoin set a new historical high record of over $107,000. Amidst the continual rise in Bitcoin prices, Trump reiterated the plan to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the U.S.
Currently, the most specific Bitcoin reserve proposal circulating in the U.S. suggests creating a reserve fund managed by the Treasury, purchasing 200,000 Bitcoins annually for five years until the reserve reaches 1 million, which would account for about 5% of the global total supply of approximately 21 million Bitcoins. Especially as Trump changed his previously hostile attitude towards Powell, interpreted by the market as a sign of goodwill, the market anticipated Powell's support for Trump's economic proposals. However, unexpectedly, Powell came out swinging with a strong statement: On December 19, during the press conference following the monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphatically stated: 'We are not allowed to hold Bitcoin.' This statement was like a heavy blow, instantly shattering the dreams of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Powell further explained that the Federal Reserve Act clearly specifies the types of assets the Fed is allowed to hold, and Bitcoin is not included. Additionally, with the Fed's interest rate cut of +25 basis points and only two possible cuts next year, this means the market's dollar liquidity will be lower than expected. Whether it's Bitcoin or gold, the support for price increases must come from currency, which undoubtedly caused a significant drop in the cryptocurrency market. This round of Bitcoin is likely to pull back to $80,000. I still adhere to my investment philosophy, continuing to purchase USDT on a regular basis, and at the appropriate time, buying the spot of new coins. After all, whether it is Trump's presidency or Musk's actions, there is still speculation space for cryptocurrencies in the future.