#比特币市场波动观
This round of Bitcoin bull market originates from Trump's election, especially the previous peak of $70,000, which occurred when Trump's election prospects became clear, and Bitcoin began to surge, ultimately breaking through $100,000. The crash on December 20 was due to two reasons: first, throughout Trump's entire election campaign, especially in the month following his successful election, rumors about Bitcoin being included in the U.S. strategic management assets, and even on the balance sheet, were rampant: In July 2024, Trump explicitly promised in a speech to "never sell" the Bitcoins held by the government and those to be acquired in the future, insisting on the concept of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve"; Currently, the most specific Bitcoin reserve proposal circulating in the U.S. comes from pro-crypto Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis. The bill proposes the creation of a reserve fund managed by the Treasury that would purchase 200,000 Bitcoins annually for five years until the reserve reaches 1 million, which would account for about 5% of the total global supply of approximately 21 million Bitcoins. Particularly, Trump changed his previously hostile attitude towards Powell, which was interpreted by the market as a gesture of goodwill, and the market expected Powell to support Trump's economic proposals. However, unexpectedly, Powell came out swinging: On December 19, Beijing time, at the press conference following the monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated emphatically: "We are not allowed to hold Bitcoin." This statement struck like a heavy hammer, instantly shattering the dreams of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Powell further explained that the Federal Reserve Act clearly stipulates the types of assets that the Federal Reserve can hold, and Bitcoin is not included. Coupled with the fact that "the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and may only cut rates twice next year," this means that market liquidity in dollars will be lower than expected. Whether for Bitcoin or gold, the support for price increases must come from currency, which undoubtedly caused the cryptocurrency market to plummet. This round of Bitcoin may very likely correct to $80,000; after all, whether it is Trump's presidency or Musk's antics, there is still room for speculation in the future of cryptocurrencies.