$BTC $ETH

Evening Analysis:

Is the market going to replicate 4000-3000 again? You have definitely experienced this market!

I just did a review of the overall market and found some interesting things! It might be worth considering as a reference! Mainly focusing on Ethereum's trend, it looks exciting!

First, it can be observed that every time it breaks through 4000, there will definitely be a sharp drop; this is the fourth time!

First time: In May 2021, the price of 4100+ dropped to 3100 in 3 days.

Second time: In September 2021, around 4050, it dropped to 2950 in 2 days.

The one in November at 4800 is considered a terminal market, so let's not count that.

Third time: In March 2024, the price of 4098 dropped to 3100 in 3 days.

The ETF in between is not counted, as it was an intermittent rise and did not exceed 4000;

Fourth time: In December 2024, the price of 4100 dropped to 3100 in 3 days.

So the question arises, will the next market arrive as expected?

According to the previous bull market's pattern, BTC's 4000 had 3 movements. Before the bull market ended, it hit 4800! This time it only had 2 movements and hasn't broken the previous high; if it makes one more move to push up to 5000, will there be a chance? If you believe, then go do something related to that belief; if you don't believe, then it will be troublesome 😂

First, let's look at the upcoming trend. Ethereum's 1-2-3-5-7 day lines are all showing death crosses. The 4-6-8-12 hour levels have golden crosses; therefore, there will be a rebound at the segment level, and a downward movement at the large level. For rises, we can only look at 35-36 for now, and for drops, we need to see if it can break 31; I emphasize again, there are no absolutes! The rise and fall range is generally the main focus!

In terms of operations, it is divided into spot and contracts. For spot, split into 2-3 parts, if it breaks 3200, it’s fine to get stuck! If it drops to 3050-2950-2850, then add positions! The rest can continue to be dollar-cost averaged as long as it doesn’t affect your life, and if choosing contracts, aim for breakouts, or bottom fishing while waiting for a divergence signal to appear!

Regarding BTC, this drop has never perfectly broken 94; every time it hits 94, it rebounds, but the rises are relatively weak. Based on Christmas, institutions don’t have much buying interest, and the task of retracement still needs to be completed. Do you think it can go to 88-86? For now, I’m not too sure! Because I'm waiting for the daily line to hit the zero axis; if it breaks the previous high, it must return to the zero axis, which is a mathematical problem! So I will layout long positions at the zero axis! Currently, apart from the support at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands, there is also concentrated support at 94; technically, it exceeds my bullish expectations! So for now, I will give up! I feel safer going short; at least the weekly line is still showing a death cross.