The DeFi project WLFI, supported by the Trump family, increased its position in Ethereum by 2.5 million USD after a sharp drop yesterday, with an average price of 3461 points. After the increase, the maximum unrealized loss was about 10% yesterday, but it has already started to turn profitable. The Grayscale Foundation has also bottom-fished XLM, LINK, BAT, and ZEN, among others, in the short term, with ZEN leading the market. Most retail investors are panicking and completely confused.
In terms of positions, the third uncle's personal account retracement was still within 10% the day before yesterday, and yesterday it soared to over 20%. Some tokens in the liquidity account nearly halved, but fortunately, many have come back. When the market bubble bursts, everyone is the same. The opportunistic harvesting by the altcoin whales means only they have made a fortune, and those with weak willpower cannot hold on until the tide recedes.
In the past 60 hours, the number of liquidated positions in the crypto market exceeded 850,000, with cumulative leveraged liquidation funds exceeding 2.9 billion USD. We are experiencing a market liquidation action very similar to 312, and the long-lost panic deep in our souls has once again surged after many years. At that time, Bitcoin was just emerging, and now Bitcoin is about to become a towering tree.
Regarding the market impact of Powell's hawkish remarks and the actual effects brought by the Fed's 2025 interest rate forecast dot plot, a previous article analyzed this in relative depth. Yesterday, the collective violent drop of altcoins linked to Bitcoin suggests that it should be possible to clarify its relationship with earlier macro events surrounding interest rate cuts, as the market wouldn't have developed such a poor shape due to uncertain future data, and the day's market also corroborated this.
So ultimately, it is highly probable that this major drop is a result of manipulation by the whales, combined with Powell's hawkish remarks targeting the leveraged market. With the Trump family's increase in Ethereum as a turning point, market trends are warming up, and panic sentiment is easing temporarily. A market supported by the world's largest leader and global hegemon won't be that fragile.
So has the short-term market stopped falling? From the violent rebound after the market's sharp drop, it does seem to have halted, but from the adjustment structure of the trend, it can only be regarded as a technical repair following a sharp decline. Other than Bitcoin and a few strong sectors, the market's gloom still persists; it's entirely possible for this round of correction to form a daily-level bottom.
As for the concept of altcoin season that everyone is concerned about, the third uncle roughly confirms that the current round of altcoin explosions will occur in stages, sectors, and narratives. Only in this way, when the windfall and narrative arrive, can the explosive power of the entire sector be forged. A traditional comprehensive bull market, especially in cases where even trash can rise, if it were to happen in the short term, would actually be a huge bearish signal; at that time, FOMO entry could be a lifetime high.
For layout or reallocation, everyone has also seen the strong narratives. The first gradient of rebounds after each market crash is something that can be focused on and firmly held for the long term. L1 and meme concepts (mainly focusing on DOGE and PEPE) and AI, etc., while the second gradient relates to Trump and Wall Street. The former has strong speculative space; regardless of the market trends, they can often develop their own logic and trends, while the latter has large institutions continuously supporting it, and once the chips are cleaned up, the pump is just a matter of opening the mouth.
Mentally, this round of sharp decline has indeed caused some fluctuations, but that's all. Objectively speaking, the performance of the crypto market this year is much more mature than four years ago. The same scenarios in the past would have resulted in much harsher declines. The biggest role of the ETF is to attract strong attention from external macro capital, which in turn creates qualitative changes through quantitative changes, significantly improving market stability.
The Bitcoin spot ETF has accumulated a net inflow of 949 million USD over the last two trading days this week, with Thursday recording the largest single-day net outflow since the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved; the next day's data rebounded significantly. The Ethereum spot ETF has seen a net outflow of 136 million USD over two consecutive trading days, which is much lower than the average figures for the previous 20 trading days. Overall, the funding situation for Ethereum will gradually strengthen.
Once again, I slightly increased my position in Ethereum, marking the second time this year. The logic is consistent with before; as the bull market progresses, Ethereum has become a must-move sector. Its early ecology and short-term controversies have already consolidated to a critical point. Unless the bull market ends, the subsequent independent market will erupt in some way. I've held on for almost two years now, so I don't care about the short-term two months.
BTC: Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 8000 points from a low of 92200 to a high of 99500, currently showing no issues in reaching 100,000. The future of Bitcoin depends on whether it can stabilize at this height for range-bound oscillation. After coming up from the low point, the market's consensus has recognized that Bitcoin is nearing the peak of this bull market, and especially with no effective explosions in other sectors, the high-level consolidation of Bitcoin is particularly important. In terms of trends, focus on the support situation at the 90000 level in the future; another test above this level would indicate a short-term end to the bearish phase.
ETH: The current wave of bullish leverage cleansing in Ethereum is more comprehensive than Bitcoin. From the data perspective, there is currently no pressure from capital selling, consistent with the prelude to an independent market. As for when the market will start, whether it will continue to dip in the short term still depends on the bottom retracement of Bitcoin. Technically, the current 3300 points will be a new bullish starting point for Ethereum; retracing still can be seen as a short-term trend participation point.
The first gradient of the altcoin rebound comes from the Grayscale series, with ZEN directly topping the charts. Another child of Grayscale, LPT, can also be monitored. Next is the meme series; DOGE has pulled back 30% after being cut in half at a high point. The wave of leverage cleansing was also quite decisive. The newly listed VC coin is still viable, and both move and me have returned to the high point of this round of sharp decline. L1, needless to say, the SUI series remains strong. If it goes down, it truly offers opportunities. Of course, when bottom-fishing, do not be blind; market adjustments do not conclude in one day. Since last year, the adjustments after the overall market crash have all been measured in months. In a bull market, it’s all about anticipation, buying long-term expectations.
Other altcoins, discussion in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is 73 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!#加密市场反弹 $BTC #PCE通胀降温
