This morning, Bitcoin's attack refreshed the historical high again, reaching around 106,600 points. Market sentiment and Bitcoin's new high are completely different, and there is not a trace of celebratory atmosphere. Moreover, as altcoins fall comprehensively, pessimistic sentiment in the market is gradually intensifying, resembling a storm approaching.
Bitcoin's recent new highs, as seen from the outcome of the price being flattened directly from Coinbase's premium, do not belong to the effect of liquidity intervention but are instead the result of a sharp increase in short contracts and the dual momentum accumulation of long positions, which led to the market's response. The subsequent market pullback also indirectly indicates a conservative attitude from short-term funds.
Therefore, when Bitcoin rises without the accumulation of outside funds, other sectors of the market cannot enjoy the premium dividends brought by Bitcoin's new highs, and the wealth effect cannot be transmitted to the market, making the downward momentum unavoidable. Uncle San tends to think that the market has formed a relatively high position for Bitcoin in the short term, and subsequent leading funds will shift to the surrounding Ethereum to trigger a secondary-level crypto ecosystem explosion.
In terms of data, Bitcoin's spot ETF had a net inflow of $2.17 billion last week, while Ethereum's spot ETF had a weekly net inflow of $855 million. The net inflow of Ethereum's spot ETF reached a historical high, and the trend shows signs of continuation. On-chain data shows that Ethereum's ecosystem had a new high in activity over the weekend, objectively supporting Uncle San's judgment from last week that Ethereum may take over Bitcoin in leading the subsequent surge. This trend may arrive earlier than expected.
The fundamentals of the market in the past six months, especially since Ethereum has struggled, have led Uncle San to emphasize a relatively optimistic view on Ethereum's long-term future. The continuous fluctuations in indicator data have altered Uncle San's short-term judgment logic, and in recent articles, he has maintained that the Ethereum market may be coming. If a time must be given, it will be after the adjustment period of the downturn before the December interest rate decision at 3 AM on Thursday, when the market will start again.
The Trump family has recently invested in non-stablecoin DeFi top applications and RWA concept crypto assets. The RWA community has previously emphasized that heads like ONDO still have huge potential even under our current conditions. Additionally, the third state in the US will officially launch legislation for 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserves' this week. Over time, Bitcoin may gain greater momentum after a brief rest and continue to explode, reaching a new bull market height beyond all our understanding.
The macro news this week focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 3 AM on Thursday. Currently, the market generally expects a continued rate cut of 25 basis points, and based on known polls, there are basically no surprises. In other words, whether it is the intraday market's broad decline or the slight panic caused by Bitcoin's rise and fall, these are all part of the market's low tide adjustment period before the data is released. Under the premise of not considering the potential war risks in the past two days, the intraday pullback or mid-term oscillation will last at most 48 hours before stopping.
So, in a bull market cycle, all unnecessary panic-induced downturns are psychological warfare induced by the market makers to make you give up your chips. It is crucial to do necessary stop-losses while respecting the market and to ignore the disturbances of short-term market emotions. The reason we are still holding on in this market is to believe in the power of cycles.
BTC: In terms of Bitcoin operations, let's continue to maintain silence for the time being. The current trend continues to surge explosively, and the difficulty of cross-gradient breakthroughs is very high, which is meaningless for retail investors. The market's fundamentals lean towards capital overflow after a high-level adjustment. From a macro perspective of the bull market cycle, the current market high for Bitcoin and its present price are certainly not far apart. The essence of the market still lies in the fluctuations of altcoins led by Ethereum during Bitcoin's adjustment period.
ETH: Ethereum has achieved a technical breakthrough on the daily chart, and there is an opportunity for a golden cross to form soon. If the spot ETF funds for Ethereum continue to be strong, establishing a short-term upward trend and reaching new highs will be without suspense. Currently, the trend for Ethereum is bullish!
Altcoins indeed suffered a severe drop today, with AI leading the decline after a brief period of strength. The Solana series memes have also continued to weaken recently. Technically, I do not believe that the altcoin market has already come to an end; Uncle San is inclined to think that the market will experience a stronger rebound after a short-term adjustment. For example, Dogecoin currently has large positions around 0.4 points, and the accumulation of long positions is still ongoing. Without a significant leveraged liquidation-style downturn like today, it will be difficult for the market to achieve a new high with explosive potential.
Other altcoins, communicate in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is at 83 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!
