Original author: Wenser, Odaily
Reposted: Lawrence, Mars Finance
Latest data shows that XRP's market capitalization briefly surpassed $136.2 billion, surpassing USDT to return to 'the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization', returning to levels prior to the 2020 SEC/Ripple lawsuit. Over the past month, XRP's price has exceeded $2.3, nearly quadrupling, with the market optimistic about XRP's future performance.
Macroeconomic and microeconomic factors overlap, leading to a surge in XRP's market capitalization.
According to Infinite Market Cap data, based on a market capitalization of $136.2 billion, XRP's market capitalization had briefly surpassed China Life, ranking 139th among global assets; currently, its market capitalization has fallen back to around $132.8 billion. Overall, the surge in XRP's market capitalization is mainly due to a series of macro and micro favorable factors.
Macroeconomic perspective: Trump's presidency is expected to help resolve the 'XRP vs SEC dispute'.
With Trump's successful election as the new President of the United States, the six-year debate between Ripple and the SEC over 'whether XRP is a security' may soon reach a final ruling, after all, as a 'crypto-friendly president', Trump is expected to play a positive role in the future development of the cryptocurrency industry.
Meanwhile, as an active participant in the US presidential campaign, Ripple previously donated $45 million to PAC ahead of the 2024 election, making it one of the largest donors alongside cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz to Fairshake. Recently, it donated another $25 million to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence cryptocurrency political tendencies.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm are competing for relevant positions, seeking to have a voice in the US policy reforms he plans, which also lays the groundwork for XRP's recent good market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also frequently spoken out, emphasizing the potential changes in cryptocurrency regulation under President Trump's leadership, mentioning: 'Ripple and XRP may face a turning point, as new pro-cryptocurrency regulatory shifts are expected to bring new hope and potentially resolve years-long legal disputes.'
Subsequently, he pointed out: 'The SEC has been intervening in the cryptocurrency market, picking winners and losers for six years... and it has been four years since the SEC sued Ripple... Now, as these external (frankly unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually dissipate, we finally see light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, and the headwind is becoming a tailwind. For those of us who believe in the future of XRP, the opportunities are enormous.' Not only that, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman also indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump and discussed cryptocurrency-related topics.
In November, the progress of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple was that 'the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's litigation brief to be submitted by January 15, 2025.' Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved a final ruling on the resolved Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered the remaining unresolved lawsuits to be suspended, shortening the time frame for the class action and paving the way for a trial starting on January 21, 2025. In addition, current SEC chair Gary Gensler previously stated that he may resign around the time Trump takes office, which also contributed to the previous price increase of XRP.
Coincidentally, one day before January 21, was exactly the first day Trump took office. Therefore, it can be said that Trump will play a 'key role' in this 'struggle between cryptocurrency institutions and regulatory bodies'.
Micro perspective: 1 billion XRP custody lock, stablecoin release imminent.
From the perspective of the project's own development, XRP may also 'bloom anew'.
One of the important reasons that directly drive the rise in XRP prices may be the '1 billion XRP tokens custody lock' that took place early this morning. According to Whale Alert monitoring, at 2:21 AM today, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP in a custody wallet, worth approximately $1.546 billion. Previous reports indicated that Ripple stated it uses a custody account system to provide transparency and certainty to the XRP market. The company locks most of its XRP holdings to ensure it does not supply excess to the market and manipulate prices. However, the company also uses XRP in the custody accounts to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. The monthly release of 1 billion XRP tokens from the custody account does not mean all will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutional or retail investors, use some for its own purposes, or return some to new trusts.
Additionally, as a cryptocurrency payment company, Ripple plans to expand its territory into the stablecoin sector. In mid-November, according to official news, Ripple announced that it will soon launch the USD stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), which is designed for enterprise use cases (such as payments) and focuses on stability, efficiency, and transparency, aimed at enhancing Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meeting the growing demand for USD-denominated transactions. It is reported that this stablecoin may be launched on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has also made significant moves in promoting industry collaboration. In October, the digital asset infrastructure provider Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, supported by market B2C 2 and Keyrock for liquidity. Additionally, according to official news, the cryptocurrency payment infrastructure company MoonPay had previously announced a partnership with Ripple to support users in purchasing, storing, and managing XRP using MoonPay accounts. In late November, Ripple also announced a collaboration with Archax and UK asset management company ABRDN PLC, with plans to launch the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger.
Under a series of positive news, Ripple and XRP are迎来 'the second spring of cryptocurrency'.
Not only that, the XRP ETF will also serve as the highlight of the cryptocurrency market, continuously attracting market attention.
Industry insiders actively express their stance: Is the XRP ETF going to be launched first?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the XRP ETF is 'inevitable'. The main basis comes from the increasing growth share of Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to the latest data, the total on-chain holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US have surpassed 1.12 million BTC (about 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holdings are valued at $108.9 billion.
Dune data panel
Meanwhile, XRP has also received strong support from cryptocurrency industry insiders from various fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF registration has started: WisdomTree takes the 'first shot', followed closely by Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares.
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered the XRP ETF in Delaware, USA, and the company has confirmed it as a legal filing. It is reported that WisdomTree manages assets exceeding $100 billion.
Meanwhile, according to a post by Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, 'Currently, there are 3 ETF applications holding the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value, XRP.'
Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares have all submitted spot XRP ETF applications. It is speculated that other issuers will join as well.
'Grayscale Select': XRP has now joined the cryptocurrency investment portfolio.
At the beginning of November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP Trust Fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, providing investment opportunities to access XRP. XRP is the core token of the distributed network XRP Ledger that supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale again stated that it is now open for private placement subscriptions for 17 token trust funds, including XRP, for qualifying accredited investors.
And the result proves that Grayscale's choice was very wise: according to statistics, Grayscale's cryptocurrency holdings value significantly increased in November. According to Cryptorank data, its cryptocurrency holdings market capitalization grew by over 85% in the past month, mainly driven by tokens including XRP (which rose over 262% during the same period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a partner of Ripple.
In November, Ripple announced that it will invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, with specific investment amounts not disclosed. It is understood that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP was previously known as 'European XRP ETP' and is part of Bitwise's suite of cryptocurrency asset funds.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the decision to invest in Bitwise funds aligns very well with the trend of increased interest in cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded products. Subsequently, Bitwise officially announced that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) has an asset management scale exceeding $80 million, and Ripple is one of the investors. This product is listed on Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry insiders express their stance: Solana, BNB, ADA, and others have all come out in support.
Just today, Solana co-founder Toly expressed: 'We need a national XRP reserve.' This statement is also seen as a response to Trump's earlier emphasis on 'establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin.'
At the end of November, CZ retweeted news stating that because XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the SEC may abandon the Ripple case. This news came from an interview with former CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse as a 'great CEO' and described their interaction as 'highly collaborative', sparking speculation that Cardano and Ripple may explore establishing a strategic partnership.
Data perspective: Market trading is active, with multiple data points reaching historical highs.
From the perspective of market data, XRP is also one of the leaders.
In the Korean market, Upbit's trading volume increased by more than 100% within seven days, with the biggest contributors being cryptocurrencies including XRP. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far exceeding Bitcoin's $30.1 billion trading volume.
In terms of price, XRP briefly broke through 2.29 USDT today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
In addition, in terms of contract data, Coinglass data shows that the total open positions of XRP futures contracts across the network are 1.739 billion ETH, approximately $4.051 billion, setting a new historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, Bybit's XRP contract open positions are 548 million XRP (approximately $1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP broke through $2, its 24-hour trading volume also exceeded $25 billion, currently reaching $25,338,798,676, with a trading volume to market cap ratio of 18.4%, indicating high trading activity relative to its market capitalization.
It is worth mentioning that, influenced by various positive news, the number of posts related to XRP on the X platform has reached 480,000, even surpassing the content related to the meme-like DOGE.
One of the content indicators on the X platform
If all goes well, the XRP ETF may become the 'third cryptocurrency ETF' in the US market following the BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: What is the future direction of Ripple and XRP?
As XRP's market capitalization temporarily returned to levels before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, the six-year-long 'first case of cryptocurrency regulation' that originated in 2018 is about to reach its conclusion, and there are differing views in the market regarding the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, the CEO of Japan's major financial services firm SBI Holdings, Yoshitaka Kitao, expressed in a post that once the SEC issue is resolved, Ripple should prepare for an IPO as soon as possible. (Odaily Planet Daily note: It is understood that SBI Holdings has been collaborating with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovation. Kitao is a key figure in the Ripple-SBI partnership and joined Ripple's board in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017, when he predicted XRP as the global standard for digital currency, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs, and scalability.) Although similar proposals had previously been shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, they can also be seen as one of the possibilities for Ripple's future direction.
After all, with the further improvement of the cryptocurrency regulatory environment, more 'cryptocurrency concept stocks' may land in the US.
