In terms of the chart, $BTC stays in the bull flag if it holds this 55/56K area. And if that gets broken then next support is 50K area, but as we can see on the weekly chart, this is still a rising trend, the large rising trend line which started from 15K is still not even touched yet. Similarly for $ETH , the rising trend line which supported this entire bull run from the 800s has not been touched yet. ETH has pireced the 3180 support, so next support is at 3000 area, and in extreme case in can get to low 2800s like the lows from April. But overall, I still think the market is being too pessimistic on the ETH ETF situation, and when the market is being so pessimistic on ETH, then any good news can make ETH do a sudden bounce. Any upside surprise with the ETH ETFs can make it bounce, and the bad news and disappointments have been mostly priced in, so the risk-reward is in ETH’s favour the more it approaches 3000. The ETH ecosystem such as ENS is still quite good risk-reward IMO, so ENS at 21.5 or below is still a nice entry into the ETH Ecosystem. UNI is also a narrative leader in the ETH ecosystem, although not as strong as ENS, but a dip to mid-6s on $UNI is probably good DCA point. NFA, DYOR.

Another reason for the sell off of Spot BTCs is due to the miners in big trouble. The miners are now producing only half as much BTC as before (due to the halving) but still using the same amount of electricity, so a lot of them are shutting down, because they are no longer profitable to operate. And this is why we see a big drop in Hash Rate, down 7.6%, it means that 7.6% of those unprofitable miners have turned off their mining machines. Since they are closing down, they are leaving the $BTC business so they would sell their inventory, which is the BTCs they mined the last 2 or 3 months. The bankrupt miners would sell these (before the Mt Gox guys) and get some cash to pay back their debt. But like in any mining business, whether it be gold or copper, when the miners are going bankrupt, then it is usually a sign that Bottom is coming. Because if some Miners stop mining, then there is less supply coming to the market. (For BTC, the supply does not change, it’s the mining difficulty that gets adjusted to be easier). But the phenomenon still applies to BTC, we saw last time Hash Rate was down 7.6% when BTC bottomed at 15K. That was Nov 2022. So just based on the Hashrate going down this much, I do think BTC is near levels that would find major support, historically speaking.

In terms of the chart, BTC stays in the bull flag if it holds this 55/56K area. And if that gets broken then next support is 50K area, but as we can see on the weekly chart, this is still a rising trend, the large rising trend line which started from 15K is still not even touched yet. Similarly for $ETH , the rising trend line which supported this entire bull run from the 800s has not been touched yet. ETH has pireced the 3180 support, so next support is at 3000 area, and in extreme case in can get to low 2800s like the lows from April. But overall, I still think the market is being too pessimistic on the ETH ETF situation, and when the market is being so pessimistic on ETH, then any good news can make ETH do a sudden bounce. Any upside surprise with the ETH ETFs can make it bounce, and the bad news and disappointments have been mostly priced in, so the risk-reward is in ETH’s favour the more it approaches 3000. The ETH ecosystem such as $ENS S is still quite good risk-reward IMO, so ENS at 21.5 or below is still a nice entry into the ETH Ecosystem. UNI is also a narrative leader in the ETH ecosystem, although not as strong as ENS, but a dip to mid-6s on UNI is probably good DCA point. NFA, DYOR.

Someone is buying big chunks of these options betting on rate cuts. They are kind of noteworthy considering that Fed is 91% chance expected to hold in July. So this guy is betting sizeable sums on econmic data to weaken, maybe this guy has some inside info.#stock

$QNT is again one of those high quality cryptos that have not participated in this small bull run so far. It is legit in so many ways, I've written quite a number of messages on QNT's fundamentals in the past. The market is ignoring it for now, but that could easily change in the 2nd half of the year. We can see the number of QNT coins on exchanges have fallen off to a new low. So there are not much QNT to sell on those exchanges. And as I explained the market is anti-VC coins for now, but QNT is 80% unlocked already, so there is only 20% coins to unlock from here. Overall I think QNT can do well, at just $1.2 Bn FDV, it can still do 5-10X if we suddenly get the right kind of news. EU could suddenly release news of adoption and catch the market by surprise. The upside resistance is at 88-90 area, then 107. And if $BTC decides to retest the 50s again, we could see QNT at 64/65 support level. A lot of this depends on BTC once again.

For $INJ , it's stuck in this range of 18-25. When it's low in the range near 18 area, that's a nice place to DCA in. Again, depending on if BTC retests the 50s again or not, INJ can go to 14.5 if BTC does a lower retest of high 50s. That 14.5 is a must-hold area and a Bull/Bear divide line. If it got there, then that's a solid place to DCA into. Overall I am bullish on INJ at these levels after a big pull back, but there are so many Layer 1s and layer 2s now... so how do we know if the market will like INJ over some other blockchain or not?.... For example, Vitalik Buterin just helped launch a new blockchain called MegaETH, which is like $ETH but has 100K Transactions Per Second (TPS). So we can research and talk about how great the tech of INJ is and how much more superior it is... but the market just don't seem to care that much for the fundamentals and the tech, for now. The INJ founder was helping promote a meme coin on INJ named after his dog... so this is like that AVAX - COQ situation again. I think INJ is probably more bullish than AVAX though, and it is at levels where some good DCA can be done. NFA, DYOR.

The SEC could delay their decision and wait until AFTER the elections to decide whether they approve of a SOL ETF or not…. And if Blackrock decide to apply then we can be sure SOL ETF will also get approved. SO for SOL itself, I think it’s nice place to DCA in below 128, the support is at 120. But if $BTC breaks down from 55K, then $ETH can break that key support of 120, and next support is not until 86. Again, that would only happen if BTC broke down from 55K, IMO. Both ETH and $SOL ecosystems I am bullish on, and you may think but nothing is happening even with the ETF news! But keep in mind when Blackrock announced the BTC ETF news, BTC was still at $24K area, it took 7 months since Blackrock ETF announcement for BTC to hit the high at 73K. So these things take time. SOL I think should break into a new ATH and make another big leg up from here when BTC breaks 73K and head higher…. That could be a few weeks or a few months from now, not sure about the timing. The SOL ecosystem would obviously benefit, but so far all the action are concentrated in the SOL memecoins, and a number of them are already in the above $1 Bn market cap category. For coins with real utility, Raydium is the largest exchange, it is still 10X from the ATH. If SOL ETF gets approved, then I do think RAY should do really well. Its support is at 1.35, that’s a decent place to start DCA, and if 1.35 breaks, then next level of support is 0.93-1.00 area. Again it depends on the action from BTC. ETH Ecosystem is more about Staking and Restaking, whilst SOL is known for all the new coins being launched (pump.fun) and getting traded on super low gas fees. So the top DEXs on SOL should do well. But of course, for the 100X and 1000X runs, it will be the crazy Solana memes.

We have news here of Cathy Wood’s Ark Funds passing on an $ETH ETF, and then going straight to a SOL ETF… So now this SOL ETF is heating up with 3 applicants: Van Eck, ARK, and 21Shares. No Blackrock application so far… but if Trump wins, then SOL won’t need a Blackrock application, Solana can get its own ETF regardless of SEC. Because SOL was issued the same way as ETH, so if ETH is not a security then $SOL is not a security either. However, there is that possible investigation into the SOL founders (rumoured by SEC), and that could DELAY the launch of a SOL ETF. I said a few months ago that I don’t think they stop at an ETH ETF, next should be either a SOL ETF or a “Crypto ETF” where 7 or 8 coins are represented such as BTC ETH SOL DOGE $BCH ETC etc… The major challenge is that SOL does not have a CME Futures listing, so the ETF applicants cannot “prove” that SOL Futures price is very closely correlated to SOL Spot price, so there is no market manipulation and if a SOL Futures ETF can be approved, then a SOL Spot ETF should be approved… That was the logic that got the ETH and BTC ETFs approved. I think that is not much of an obstacle anymore. I think SOL ETF is likely to happen sooner or later, if Trump wins the odds are very high SOL gets an ETF. Even right now, I think Democrats will be under tons of pressure to be more pro-crypto.

A few days ago I saw that RATS futures was trading with 3rd highest volume on Binance only behind $BTC and $ETH . So I bought some. Today it is again trading at very high volume, like $600M so far, when you realise that FDV of RATS is only $100M, then that is huge. It could get to 10X the FDV in trading volume on Binance alone and 20X on all platforms. what has been happening os that Binance is being heavily criticised for listing all these VC coins with lots of unlocks to come. And the community is asking for a coin that has no VCs and is fully unlocked already, and usually that would mean a memecoin. And I think the market is trying to prove to Binance that RATS has a huge community behind it, so Binance can make a lot of money by listing it…. Anyways, CZ is in jail, and his wife He Yi is running the show so there are lots of uncertainties. I DCAed in some more, NFA DYOR. The goal here is to get OKX to list RATS or eventually get a Binance spot listing. That would be huge. RATS in volume is already larger than SATS, it is already 2nd largest Ordinal. Anyways, it’s a gamble, let’s see what happens, if Binance management gets the idea or not?
Yes I saw the rally in USD, and it’s pushing Japanese Yen to 38 year low!! And Chinese Yuan also pushed to 7.305 now….. The Wall Street Big Bosses told Fed to keep rates high to crush EU Japan and especially China. And if US economy is tanking, then just borrow $2Trillion USD to pump it into the economy via the US Treasury Department—- which is exactly what is happening in the market right now.

In the NASDAQ, I spoke about an NVDA pull back last week. My target for major resistance was 142, and NVDA came very close to that, and I thought then it should pull back, to likely the 110 area, since that is the top of the rising channel. So the top of the rising channel would act as support and I think NVDA would bounce off that 110 area. So far this is playing out with the price action. Again, I don’t think the AI craze tops out here, I think the final Blow Off top in “AI” is still yet to come and NVDA will recover after this pull back, and so will the NASDAQ after this pull back.#stock

So overall, looking at $BTC and $ETH charts, I still remain bullish. BTC can break this level here and go to 55/56K support, and still remain inside the bull flag. If it remains inside the Bull flag then it can still rally after all this pull back. ETH is bouncing off the 3230 area which is a major rising trend line (in red) on my chart. So I think both BTC and ETH are still in Bullish territory, both are still only down 20% from the top. The situation for crypto in the last 2 months have surprised me and many in the markets, who would’ve thought Trump switched to be a big crypto supporter now, and Biden is also forced to pivot; so that ETH ETF is approved and SEC attack on ETH is now finished as well and ETH is officially NOT a security anymore. All of these were huge surprises and quite positive for the markets. The sentiment and market can turn quite quickly and squeeze the shorts, and there are a lot of shorts as we see in the chart below. As price was falling earlier today, Open Interest was increasing, meaning shorts are being built up as prices were falling. So exchanges would want to short squeeze with a sharp bounce I would think.Also bear in mind on Thursday, there is the debate between Trump and Biden, and it is possible one or both of them can have a debate about their crypto policies. And if they say something positive that we have not heard before, then prices can bounce hard to squeeze the shorts. Overall, I understand the Fed is still holding rates high, trying to crash China/Japan/EU, I’m the only one who was calling for this. But I also understand that the Fed might be running out of time as well if it keeps holding like this, and weakness are starting to show up in some areas in US economy. So in a month or two we could have the market pricing in firm rate cuts… I don’t think this is a bearish situation for BTC or ETH, especially since sentiment is bearish then I think we could at least get a big bounce.

There are news driving this dump, or we can try to ignore the news and just look at the technical charts. This pull back to support at 59K is something we have spoken about a number of times, and $ETH at 3300 now was also spoken about as support as well. So the main news scaring the market is the Mt Gox BTC dump that is supposedly coming in early July, about $9Bn…. There are some opposing reports saying those guys will not get their BTCs at today’s price but at 2014 price which is $483 per $BTC ….. Either way, this Mt Gox news of a BTC dump has been used to tank BTC and crypto markets a number of times in the last 12 months, and we can see below on the charts the red lines are the times when this news came out. Every time it came out market panicked, and soon afterwards market recovered and bounced up…. Even if it is true, $9bn for a $1 Trillion asset (BTC) is less than 1% of market cap. And we have known the Mt Gox sale was coming next few months for quite a while now. So I don’t really consider this news, and especially a lot of high leverage longs were liquidated today, so I’d consider this just more market action to liquidate high leverage longs. It’s like back in 2020/21 Bull run when China was the top player in crypto, the big FUD news was “China Bans Crypto”, that news came out every time when exchanges needed to liquidate longs, and this time around it’s “Mt Gox coins are about to sell”.

Thru the $BTC pull back of the last 2 weeks or so, ETH has actually stayed strong. We see this on the $ETH BTC chart. I see the sentiment on ETH ETF launch is quite bearish, nobody seems to believe in it anymore. I thin the pessimism has been priced in, and any little bit of positive surprise could send ETH bouncing up high.So I remain upbeat about the ETH Ecosystem and think this is a nice opportunity to DCA into the ETH Ecosystem coins as I wrote about the past few weeks. A lot of this price action feels like 2019 or early 2020 when crypto/Altcoins were making big volatile swings before the mad retail-driven Bull run started. BTC is up this last 12 months due to the Wall St ETFs, but Alts have not had major news narratives since liquidity is not here yet from the Fed. So for most of the Alts, this does seem similar in price action to 2019 and early 2020 where there are big swings up and down, but later on the retail-driven bull market did come for Altcoins and folks who positioned early in 2019 were rewarded. This what crypto/ Altcoins investing has always been like, it’s quite risky of course, but it’s also the most highly profitable when things are going in the right direction.

I warned folks here before that I think there is a good chance we are alrady inside World War 3.... Now, this week Egypt and Iran both shipped their ancient artefacts to China, even national treasures that have never been on display to their own citizens before.... WHY would they do that? Well, you know Syria, Afghanistan also did the same thing, right before they went to war. Because they don't want their national treasures to be bombed, it's not like a building you can't just rebuild that stuff.... So the speculation is that Iran and Egypt are getting ready for war, so they want their treasures being kept safe in a place that won't be bombed. Last few days we saw Hezbollah breaking thru Israel's Iron Dome and drop bombs inside Israel. At least that is the intel I am getting. So now if Egypt and Iran join in as well, then it's a much bigger war in Mid East. And Israel as I said from the start of this conflict aims to drag USA in to fight as well, that is the only way Israel will survive. If Biden is losing in the polls, then declaring war on "terrorists" might be a good enough excuse to save his election in the next few months. So MId East looks to be shaping up to be a much bigger fight, and likely more US involvement with the fighting.Each camp plays to their own strength. US is strong with its financial war, so it wields the US Dollar like a weapon used to crush other currencies and their banks and economies. China and Russian currencies are very small compared to US Dollar, so they can't fight back in this Financial War. But there are other areas China and Russia can fight back on... and they understand the US Dollar is ANCHORED in the Mid East thru Israel (and Saudi Arabia). So that is why the more pressure we see being placed on the Chinese Yuan, then the more pressure we will likely see in the Middle East.... I exlpained this concept a long time ago in here, I called it, the Hybrid War, meaning a war that uses a lot of different tactics. And financial war and currency wars are just two of tools, so only by understanding the whole picture do we understan.

Why is crypto tanking? One obvious reason is the US dollar is rallying last few weeks, it’s now near 106. Older members should know by now that when USD is rallying hard, then Crypto goes into a big pull back or even bear market. And USD is rallying not because US yields are rallying, in fact US yields are down a lot. US dollar is rallying because Euro is dumping. Euro the currency is dumping for 2 reasons, one because of the French elections shocked the market, a Far-right takeover is scaring a lot of big money, some of them are preparing to leave the EU. We can see on the Euro chart, it really dumped hard last week when the election shock was reported. And also, Euro is down due to ECB has started cutting rates, so market expects ECB to cut more whilst Fed is DELAYING rate cut, so lower yields in Europe means a stronger dollar. The Euro is like 60% of the USD Index (DXY) so Euro goes down, and USD is thus up. When USA is rallying like this, it’s very difficult for $BTC or crypto to make a big rally as we’ve seen from the past. Also, the crypto market has been disappointed by the Fed delaying rate cuts again and again…. Not only the crypto market, it seems NASDAQ has finally realised this as well, for the weekly chart, we just saw a big topping tail on NASDAQ chart, so it looks like we are likely to get 2-4 weeks of pull back or at least sideways chop on NASDAQ here.For NASDAQ some of this is caused by NVDA pull back, if folks search my message I had 142 as target for NVDA it came pretty close to the target, in fact I think 142 was actually hit during Pre-market trading on Thursday. Now it looks like NVDA is on a pull back, if so, then major support is at 112.5 area, since that is top of the rising channel. #stock

The crypto market is pessimistic now, we are seeing mostly shorts in futures trading. I remain optimistic on $ETH and the ETH ecosystem. I think, likely an ETH Season is about to happen soon. The reason is because market is selling ETH now because it expects ETF listing on July 2/3rd, and lots of Grayscale ETH will be dumped on the market. I explained last week that the price gap between the ETHE Trust from Grayscale and ETH is only like 1-3%, so the motivation to dump ETH when the ETF is listed in 2 weeks is not as strong as when $BTC ETF listed. Also, this fear has been mostly priced in, so any bit of good news can make ETH pump up. For now ETH is stuck between 3600 and 3300 area as I named a few days ago. But after ETH ETF listings in early July, I am expecting ETH to break above 3600, with 3820 being 1st objective. Getting into ETH ecosystem here is not a bad idea IMO. NFA DYOR.

Why is crypto tanking? Other than the Strength of the US dollar against the Euro (due to French elections, Euro is tanking), the other big reason is due to Fed just DELAYS rate cuts! Why does Fed keep delaying rate cuts? I told folks that the MOST important chart in the world right now is the USD-China Yuan chart. Why? Because US Fed is pretty much only looking at this chart to decide when to cut rates. You see how the Fed keeps the US dollar strong with high rates and NO CUTS, and thus pushing USD toward new ATHs against the China Yuan (at 7.37). The Fed thinks that if it can push the Yuan to be higher than 7.37, then China currency and real estate and stocks can crash. The Whole World is waiting for the Fed to cut rates, the Whole World’s been held hostage to the US Federal Reserve, as it goes on its own personal vendetta agains the Chinese currency. The big bank bosses of Wall St are really enjoying this, Why? Because as I said, along the way, Fed (controlled by Big Wall St banks) will get to CRUSH a few very juicy and fat 2nd prizes and 3rd prizes….. 2nd prize is the Euro, which had made a historical rate cut last week, and now Euro is tanking and could go down more in the next few months. 3rd prize is Japan… did you see the 5th Largest bank of Japan is now in danger? Norinchukin Bank now needs to sell $60 Bn of US Treasury Bonds to save itself??…. So the Fed knows by trying to crash China, it will also crash Euro and Japan a long the way.

So here is an MVRV based indicator which is showing that $ETH season is starting. And that is not hard to understand since the ETFs are coming on July 2nd most likely. But the market is very bearish on alts and ETH ecosystem now... My thoughts are that it's likely good odds to bet on ETH and ETH ecosystem performing well in next few weeks or even months. I've spoken a lot about the ETH ecosystem, and here is an update on some of them. ENS is a fvorite of Vitalik Buterin, and also larry Fink spoke on TV about Digital IDs on chain, and I think it should be obvious by now that Fink/Blackrock wants to build "tokenisation" and RWAs on ETH chain. My entry for$ENS was around $20, and it spiked down there yesterday, but already bounced up 30% now. Congrats to the folks who had orders down there. I continue to think ENS should do well and break up in 2nd half of year.

And then there's the two main DEX on ETH, the $UNI and $SUSHI . We all remember that back in April, both crashed because UNI got served with a letter from SEC, and that is when both went down 50% in 3 days. NOW, we know for a fact that SEC will NOT investigate ETH 2.0 and accuse ETH as a "security". So the reason for attacking UNI and SUSHI in the first place are now removed in my opinion. Becuse most other coins are launched in the same way as ETH, and if ETH is not a security, then it's hard to argue the others are security. So if ETH ecosystem heats up, I can see market sentiment changing on UNI and SUSHI. UNI is already kind of large, so picking up UNI below 9.00 could be a good play, and SUSHI at 0.75-80 area is good support. Of course, the alts are in a bearish mood, so prices can go lower. But I am upbeat on the ETH ecosystem, and these are the plays I thin could work.

If we have to pick a L2 on ETH, then I can't look past Base for obvious reasons I explained a number of times before. AERO is the dominant DEX on Base, at 0.62 area is good support, it can probably get there for a decent entry. NFA DYOR.

$BNB is pulling back, but I think it should be a giant Cup and Handle that is forming. And this handle could meander down to low 500s.... but that would be an opportunity to load up on BSC chain coins. If $ETH season runs well, it might spill over into other chains, and CZ is out in Early October, so prices in the BSC ecosystem could pump by Sept, or as early as August. CAKE is the leading DEX, I still like it a lot. Spot accumulation below 2.25 makes sense to me. But for folks who like to use leverage, the support is at 2.08 area, an entry at 2.15 or lower, with a tight stop at 2.05 or even below 2.00 could make a good play. Keep in mind that if BNB itself went to low 500s, then CAKE can easily go below 2.00, so there is still lots of risks to this futures set up.For memecoin on BSC, I still quite like WHY. They burnt like 40% of their supply when the coin was at 11M FDV, I think WHY has a real shot at becoming the leader of the BSC memes for this season. Price is coming down into the accumulation zone again, near the bottom of the bull flag. Overall, memes might turn out to be the best performing narrative of this cycle, I don't make the rules, I just say what I am observing. The best memes on SOL Base chain and MAYBE BSC (if CZ decides to give it a push) can make life changing gains this bull run.