Approfondimenti di Alesta Aka Mertcan(@mertcansenturk)

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Alesta Aka Mertcan

@mertcansenturk

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$BTC Fed çok derin bir paradoks ile karşı karşıya. Bugün 2024'ün son Fed toplantısı var ve piyasalar %96 ihtimalle 25 baz puanlık faiz indirimi bekliyor. Ancak çok derin bir ikilem var karşısında. Bir yanda piyasalar rekor üstüne rekor kırıyor. Hisse senetleri tarihi zirvede, ev fiyatları tepe noktasında, Bitcoin rekor tazeliyor, hatta "Fartcoin" gibi meme coinler bile 500 milyon dolar değerlemeye ulaşıyor. Diğer yanda ise yükselen enflasyon riski var. CPI, PPI ve PCE - üç önemli enflasyon göstergesi de yeniden tırmanışta. Cleveland Fed'in Aralık tahmini %2.86. Core PCE ise %3'e yaklaşıyor. İşin ilginç yanı, Fed pivot sinyalleri vermeye başladığından beri uzun vadeli faizler yükseliyor. 10 yıllık tahvil getirisi 85 baz puan arttı. Popüler tahvil ETF'i TLT üç ayda %11 düştü. 30 yıllık mortgage oranları %6'dan %7'ye çıktı. Bu tablo bize ne söylüyor? Piyasa Fed'le adeta satranç oynuyor. Fed faiz indirimi sinyali verdikçe, uzun vadeli faizler yükseliyor. Çünkü piyasa, enflasyonun geri dönüşünden ve Fed'in erken gevşemeye gittiğinden endişeli. Bu endişe yersiz değil. 1970'lerde Fed aynı hatayı yapmıştı - enflasyonla savaşı çok erken bitirdiğini ilan edip faizleri indirmişti. Sonuç? Enflasyon geri geldi ve daha da güçlendi. Üstelik bugün 1970'lerden farklı olarak devasa bir ulusal borç var. Faiz ödemeleri yıllık 1 trilyon doları aştı. Bu da Fed'in elini zorlaştırıyor. Bugünkü toplantıda büyük ihtimalle 25 baz puan indirim göreceğiz. Ancak asıl soru sonrasında ne olacağı. Ocak'ta Fed yoluna devam edecek mi yoksa piyasanın mesajını alıp duraksamaya mı gidecek? Ben ikinci senaryoya daha yakın duruyorum. Çünkü: 1. Enflasyon henüz tam kontrol altında değil 2. Finansal koşullar son 24 yılın en gevşek seviyesinde 3. Spekülatif davranışlar yeniden artıyor 4. İşgücü piyasası zayıflama sinyalleri veriyor Yani önümüzdeki dönem muhtemelen "daha yüksek, daha uzun" faiz dönemine dönüş olacak.

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-MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy: Navigating Profits and Market Impact- MicroStrategy has emerged as a significant player in the cryptocurrency world, frequently making headlines with its Bitcoin (BTC) purchases. The company's treasury now holds 252,220 BTC, representing 1.20% of the total Bitcoin supply, positioning MicroStrategy as one of the largest BTC holders in the industry. The current market value of these holdings is around $17.5 billion, underscoring the importance of Bitcoin investments in the company's strategy. With an average purchase price of $39,000, MicroStrategy has achieved approximately 80% profit as Bitcoin's price has surged. However, this situation also carries inherent risks. The decision on at what price to sell these Bitcoins could significantly impact the market. If MicroStrategy opts for a large-scale sale, it could lead to price volatility and fluctuations. Given the cryptocurrency market's inherently volatile nature, a substantial sell-off could trigger price declines. This potential for a market reaction, including panic selling from other investors, might further exacerbate the situation. On the other hand, MicroStrategy's strategy of holding onto its Bitcoins reflects a long-term investment perspective. The company views Bitcoin as a store of value, which may lead it to prioritize retention over immediate sales. Such an approach could foster a more stable market environment. In conclusion, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases and potential sales are critical to both the company's future and the broader cryptocurrency market. The price level at which the company chooses to sell and the subsequent market effects will be key factors for investors to monitor closely. #BTC☀ #MicroStrategу $BTC $BTC

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How has VCs’ interest in crypto evolved? In the early days of crypto venture capital, around 2012 to 2017, the landscape was defined by a sense of both wild optimism and uncertainty. VC firms were drawn to the untapped potential of blockchain technology, often investing in networks that promised transformative solutions but lacked substantial frameworks to bring these visions to life. At this stage, investors frequently prioritized projects based on their potential for explosive growth, overlooking business metrics or the viability of the technology they were producing. The due diligence process was relatively minimal, leading to heightened volatility and, in some cases, project downfalls, even those that garnered substantial funding. Market excitement led to a culture of speculation, where investments were sometimes made on a gut feeling rather than a thorough analysis of the technology stack or market fit. This environment attracted not just seasoned VC funds and investors but newcomers eager to participate in what seemed like a gold rush. As a result, projects and networks emerged with ambitious whitepapers and unrealistic promises. Yet few had the expertise and guidance to deliver on their claims. As the markets matured, the shortcomings of early VC strategies became clear. To save face, many marquee VC firms that had only dipped their toes into blockchain quickly pulled out of the industry altogether. However, this paved the way for a more cautious and strategic approach focusing on real-world applications, infrastructure, and emerging technologies that provided a sense of stability and sustainability to the crypto market. This shift reflects a broader trend in VC funding where investors increasingly evaluate what a project and network can provide beyond a concrete product or solution. Societal and environmental impact are becoming more important to VCs as they aim to support blockchain projects that bring communities together. #venturecapital #CryptoNewss

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-Trump Makes Big Promises About Crypto in US - Former president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has delivered many broken promises in his political career. This year, Trump has taken up crypto in an attempt to lure in crypto voters. On July 7, the Republican Party unveiled a draft of its political program, and crypto was specifically mentioned under its innovation program, next to the development programs for artificial intelligence and space expansion. The document summarized the main crypto objective of a Trump administration: “Republicans will end Democrats’ unlawful and unAmerican Crypto crackdown and oppose the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency. We will defend the right to mine Bitcoin, and ensure every American has the right to self-custody of their Digital Assets, and transact free from Government Surveillance and Control.” The political program was codified following Trump’s comments at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, where he said, “I pledge to the Bitcoin community that the day I take the oath of office, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ anti-crypto crusade will be over,” stating firmly that “it will end. It will be done.” But will Trump really follow through on these bold promises? Bitcoin “made in the USA” On June 12, Trump posted on Truth Social that he wanted “all the remaining Bitcoin to be made in the USA,” claiming it would help the US become “energy dominant.” Currently, 90% of the 21-million-capped Bitcoin supply has been mined. Trump’s aims to bolster the US mining industry and keep Bitcoin production onshore could face significant logistical and regulatory challenges due to the decentralized nature of Bitcoin mining. Ben Gagnon, CEO of crypto mining firm Bitfarms, told Cointelegraph it’s “absolutely possible and desirable to make America the number one country for Bitcoin mining.” #BTC☀ #CryptoDecision #CryptoNewss

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Central Banks Are Secretly Buying Bitcoin It might sound like a conspiracy, but central banks are almost certainly already buying Bitcoin. Here’s why: Hedging Against Their Own Policies Nearly all countries are up to their ears in debt. Since austerity measures are not politically acceptable, they must find other ways to manage that debt – and the easiest path is just to inflate it away! If you make the value of each dollar of debt worth less and less each year, it naturally becomes easier to find the money to pay it off. Here’s where central banks come in, and the game plan is simple: flood the economy with money to purposely cause inflation. In the United States, the Fed supposedly targets a 2% inflation rate, but in reality, they want the inflation rate to be as high as possible without causing political turmoil. Of course, central banks know all about inflation, which is why they try to minimize the amount of currency they hold in reserve. Instead, they opt for hard assets – ie. assets that don’t get devalued year after year. Gold is one such asset, and so are stocks, and even some kinds of bonds. Bitcoin is also an inflation-resistant asset, which is why central banks are probably scooping it up right now. Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Uncertainty The global economy is shaky, and as many investors turn to Bitcoin to hedge against financial instability, central banks are likely doing the same. Publicly, bankers may criticize Bitcoin, but privately they could be buying it to protect their reserves, particularly in countries seeking sanction-resistant assets. Bitcoin’s decentralized nature provides an escape from financial sanctions and offers a hedge against rising debts and inflation as trust in fiat currencies erodes. For central banks in geopolitically sensitive regions, accumulating Bitcoin could serve both as a safeguard against weakening traditional monetary systems and as a means to sidestep external pressures. #Bitcoin❗ #bitcoin☀️ #BTC☀ #CentralBanking

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