What to Expect From Bitcoin in 2024

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Expectations that U.S. regulators will approve spot bitcoin ETFs next year are driving prices higher. History suggests we might see a slowdown as we approach the halving in April 2024, says Path Crypto's David Liang.

Optimism regarding a spot bitcoin ETF application approval ignited an almost 49% gain in BTC's price since October. It is likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission approves or denies multiple applications simultaneously for logistical and consistency reasons. (Figures cited are as of Dec. 18 unless noted otherwise.)

Spot BTC trading is concentrated on several exchanges: Coinbase, Binance, Bybit and OKX. They account for about 65% of spot BTC trading. Binance accounts for 35.5%, while Bybit, OKX and Coinbase account for 11.3%, 9.2%, and 8.9%, respectively.

The average BTC order size has been decreasing since early 2021 and is about $1,652. While smaller order sizes are associated with retail customers, many, if not most, institutions divide trade orders into smaller orders to minimize slippage. It would be imprudent to suggest retail customers were primarily responsible for recent trading patterns in BTC based on order size analysis alone.

Coinbase's third-quarter 2023 trading summary suggests declining volume in three of the past four quarter-over-quarter measures. Volume among retail and institutional traders has fallen at a similar pace over the course of the past year, with retail and institutional customers trading about $4.2 billion and $24.7 billion in the third quarter, respectively.

Source: CoinBase, Path Digital Advisors