Uncle's retail investment experience:
1. Technical analysis based on K-line has no reference significance for most of the smaller market capitalization or the entire crypto market.
2. Policies and macroeconomic indicators will have a long-term impact on the industry cycle and development or trigger black swan events;
3. The stock and capital volume of the exchange are objective data facts, but the data you see are usually the results, because a large number of pull-ups and smash-ups occur in a short period of time.
4. This market is mainly driven by emotions, and price fluctuations of 20-30% are within the normal range. There are only two types of people who make money in this market. One is the person who is one step ahead of others in the news and can accurately capture market sentiment. The other is the long-term holder of value coins.
5. Is value investment practical in the currency circle? Of course, from a historical perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum belong to value investment because they have practical value in real life. For example, many multinational companies pay wages through cryptocurrency, which is a normal demand today. The essence of blockchain is to optimize production relations, and the more closed the economy, the greater the demand. The actual application value can give the currency price a strong repair power. Even if the price fluctuates greatly, it is growing upward overall.
6. The best way for retail investors to invest is to have a deep understanding of a project, and fundamentally judge the application value of the project, and then hold it for a long time and wait for it to bear fruit. Pay less attention to the gossip and inflammatory analysis in the community.
7. The best way to understand a project is to use it, or even participate in its development. Generally speaking, if you can rely on a project to think of a bunch of scenarios that can make money, and there is no other competitor that can replace this type of scenario, then congratulations, you have found a treasure among thousands of gravels.
8. This is also the reason why I have been brainless and bullish on $AR . Many conclusions are based on deep experience and deep thinking. Maybe my original intention of investment is different from that of many people. I am not concerned about whether the coins issued by a project can make money, but whether this project can help me make money.

$AR Ao real-time online users have been hovering around 10,000 without realizing it. On the other hand, Ethereum GAS has dropped to a historical low of 1gwei. Even in the sluggish market, it is still moving forward against the trend. Value is not a short-term price fluctuation. This is the case in an open market. Investor sentiment has a great impact on prices. However, value and consensus can give better repair power. I continue to repeat my point of view: Bitcoin is the first generation of production relationship optimization, Ethereum is the second generation of production relationship optimization, and AO is on the road to the third generation of production relationship optimization. The pattern of the three kingdoms of web3 infrastructure is becoming clearer.

$AR did not sell any, 22 continued to cover the position! It's time to test your faith!

$AR When it was 1:700 CRED before, my uncle said that CRED was the most certain way to get AO, and the exchange rate would rise to 1:200. Currently, the AR/CRED exchange rate has risen to 1:277.

$AR Even when the price of stETH is falling, the total amount of AO cross-chain pledge exceeded 300 million US dollars on the 7th day, which shows that AO is attractive to external funds, especially large investors. At present, the daily net increase continues to be stable at around 10,000 stETH. Although $AR has experienced a certain degree of decline under the short-term impact of the AO economic model, I think this is only a short-term pain. Under the grand narrative of AO super-parallel computer/AR permanent storage, the market has responded.

Recently, many exchange AR holders generally ask me two questions, and I will reply to them in a concentrated manner:
1. Will the exchange issue AO? I actually don’t have a clear answer to this. From personal experience, large exchanges such as Binance will not embezzle users’ assets when they lose their credit, but users frequently change hands in the exchange. The exchange may need a set of strategies to count the user’s holdings in various time periods. This should require a lot of work, so there is no need to worry about it!
2. Regarding the instability of AR wallet: First of all, the AO ecosystem is indeed a new ecosystem. AR wallet is unstable when accessing the AO interface. This is essentially because the wallet manufacturer has not kept up, and it does not mean that it is a problem with the AO network. In fact, everyone can query data through blockchain browsers such as ao.link.
3. At present, whether the exchange AR is withdrawn to the wallet or left in the exchange depends on the individual. If you want to hold it for a long time, it is recommended to withdraw it to a private wallet for safety, and the AO reward can also be directly issued to the private wallet. If you want to trade in the exchange, there is actually no need to withdraw it to the wallet.
4. How to participate in stETH staking, please go directly to https://ao.arweave.dev/

The total AO pledge volume soared to 270 million USD in just 4 days, causing the AR/CRED price to rise from 1:700 to 1:370, which is still one step away from the 1:200 predicted by the uncle. After the release of the AO token economic model, most of the predictions were relatively accurate.

1. The current total pledged market value of#AOexceeds 185 million US dollars. If it can maintain the current daily increase of about 10,000 pieces, it is estimated that it will exceed the total market value of#ARin the next 1-2 months;

2. After exceeding the market value of AR, the annualized rate of return per $ETH will drop to about 3 $AO. If from the first mining to the unlocking date on February 8 next year, the actual return per $ETH is 5-7 $AO, and the annualized ETH pledge rate is about 3%, which is equivalent to 105 US dollars at the current price. From this, it can be roughly inferred that the unit price of AO issued by the ETH channel is 15-20 US dollars;

3. It is certain that the total pledged market value of ETH will exceed AR. It is just a matter of time. This time actually determines the actual purchase cost of the first mining participants;

4. Will the pledged market value fall after exceeding the total market value of AR? There will definitely be fluctuations, or black swan events will occur. Otherwise, I think the pledged market value and AR market value will stabilize at about 1.5:1, and it is unlikely to exceed 2:1, because AR holding income is more stable and can be freely circulated. If it exceeds, it is obviously more cost-effective to hold AR.

5. If the holding cost of AR in your hand is less than 15 US dollars, or the price of AR drops to 15 US dollars, I recommend that you can directly exchange AR for Claim AO through CRED before the 27th. This is a more certain way.

6. In general, the value anchoring of AO is not driven by the mining game of AR and ETH, but its own application scenarios. If you believe in the future of AO, the difference is the purchase cost. Based on AO’s current narrative and actual developer experience, AO’s early market value can be anchored to 5-10 billion US dollars in the bull market.

$AR Uncle Ye’s superficial opinion, not investment advice.

$AR On AO, each NFT can become an independent intelligent entity, such as a game character with unique attack behavior, an investment robot with its own investment preferences, or a robot that can talk to people about art history like Mona Lisa. This simply opens the door to imagination.

$AR The AI-driven large-scale on-chain multiplayer game LLAMA LAND is already running on AO. Of course, the combination of AI and blockchain is far more than that. Many blockchain + AI projects are still at the white paper stage.

$AR I can understand the emotions of many AR investors. The price of the currency has fallen instead of rising amid waves of favorable news. The expectation of short-term speculation and cashing out has been dashed. It's like you are dating a girlfriend. At first, you think she is good and invest a lot of time and money to pursue her, but after you get her, you find that her bed skills are very average. The market is an invisible hand. It will not give you the expected return at the expected time. Some women are superficial. They may cheat you of your money and people after a moment of pleasure, but some women need you to take time to taste them. The more you taste, the more delicious they are. Of course, it is your own choice which one you like, but it is wrong to slander her or even teach her a lesson when breaking up.

As the amount of stETH staked increases, the FUD crisis faced by $AR is being resolved, which also means that AO's grand vision is on the right track. There are two types of value anchoring, one is arbitrage value, and the second is application value. It is obvious that Arweave chose the latter, sacrificing short-term market effects for long-term ecological prosperity. The negative example of this is $ICP in the past, where the market effect overshadowed the application value itself, and both individuals and the ecosystem were lost.

This person is asking for trouble every day. If I don't scold him, he will feel itchy all over! This person pretends to be a contributor of the permadao community and is cheating in the $AR square. I don't know what he is trying to do.

$AR AO’s stETH cross-chain pledge exceeded 100 million US dollars.

Uncle Ye provides two evaluation methods for the long-term value of AR/AO:
1. The value of AO is anchored to CU node pledge and GAS consumption. In fact, you can just look at the size of the ecological fund, because the more money, the more motivated the developers are, and at the same time, more CU support is needed. Coming back in a circle, the reference of AO value is actually the total amount of cross-chain interest-bearing funds.
2. The value evaluation of AR is very simple, look at the storage consumption, and the total number of AO messages is a very good reference indicator.
$AR

$AR AO cross-chain staking volume exceeded 15192stETH, and the annualized 3% staking interest is equivalent to 455 ETH, which will enter the AO ecological fund to reward developers and ecological builders. Arweave's goal is to expand the user scale and consensus through developers, and they have chosen a difficult path.

$AR AO’s stETH cross-chain staking has exceeded five digits, with a rapid growth rate.

Basically agree

I agree with some of the pseudo-marshal's views, but I am a die-hard fan of AR. I have been through it all the way and don't care about short-term ups and downs. In fact, I have never made short-term ups and downs predictions, but I have always been committed to the value discovery of AR. The economic model of AO is objectively painful for AR, but it is bound to be beneficial in the long run. In fact, the marketing strategy or speaking ability of the AR team is average. If I were the uncle, I would definitely say this:

1. The value of $AO is anchored to the pledge demand of the CU node in the AO computing framework;

2. AO needs to use cross-chain stETH pledge mining, and mining new coins requires a 30% tax

3. 30% mining tax rewards AR holders;

From the perspective of personal investment, the uncle recommends the following:

1. If you have ETH and AR, keep it still and use some idle ETH to pledge to earn AO;

2. If you only have ETH, it is recommended to configure some AR when staking, so that you can use AR to offset the pledge mining tax (this ranking is original by the uncle)

3. If you only have AR, then exchange part of the ETH cross-chain pledge

Ps: It is a smarter approach to exchange some CRED with AR and then directly exchange it for AO. $ETH $AR

The unit mining volume of stETH is falling rapidly. It was more than 600 annualized in the morning, and now it has become 485. However, it seems that the profit of stETH mining is still very high, and a large amount of funds are expected to flow in on the day of mining.