The market is hyping AI again
When Nvidia launched the DGX H200 supercomputer, one of the features it promoted was the NVLink interconnect technology
"For high-performance computing at the exascale level or AI models at the trillion-parameter level, the transmission speed between chips is almost as important as the computing power of the chips. High-speed, seamless communication is required between each GPU in the server cluster to achieve large-scale acceleration "
Therefore, the technology that realizes efficient AI parallel computing on a decentralized network is worth at least 10 billion
And the AI ​​token that does not solve this problem is like a meme

They sell locked tokens in OTC!
Maybe this is why altcoins fail, those who have made dozens of times the floating profit are not willing to take risks to keep the promise of locking

Action 1
This is a lesson, ETH may make a huge mistake
POS sounds very good
But when someone gives liquidity to POSETH, it is like altcoins sold in OTC
Those POSETH should be locked in the network to protect the security of the network. Now, they can be traded at will, so who protects the security of ETH?

Action 2
ENA changed the crypto market
From 202402 to 202407, ENA added 3.6B arbitrage shorts
1. ENA adds a large number of unsqueezed shorts to the market, the market lacks matching liquidity, and bulls cannot squeeze shorts to make profits. When bulls surrender, cryptocurrency prices lose support
2. ENA is a synthetic dollar
The asset corresponding to the US dollar is the US government credit, and an important part of the US government credit liquidity is US bonds
Those who hold US bonds bear interest rate risk (rises and falls affect prices), while those who hold US dollars pay inflation costs (the US dollar depreciates every year)
3. If the dollar is synthesized based on crypto assets, the inflation fee should be paid by the shorts to the longs, and the longs bear the risk of the rise and fall of crypto assets. This logic is the opposite of ENA. 4. ENA's underlying assets are not crypto assets, but perpetual contracts. Is it possible for ENA to destroy it in this cycle? Aciont3 Binance is selling its users by issuing a large number of altcoin airdrops to BNB holders. Each airdrop is worth tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. I am curious about who is buying the free airdropped altcoins, or the big players are not selling the free altcoins. If you see that the German government sold 50kBTC (US$3 billion) and caused the BTC price to fall by 16%, you should judge what US$100 million means to altcoins. What are they doing? Listing/holding/hyping these altcoins that are almost never successful. Action4 Most people know about the Internet bubble and think that history will repeat itself. What if now is the top of the bubble? Information 20 years ago was not as popular as it is now, so people at that time may not know how to protect themselves.

1. I was washed out. I used to see everyone losing money/losing everything. I don’t want to be like them.
2. I may not buy Bitcoin/cryptocurrency again. I am scared. When you hold, the price is falling every day. One morning, you may wake up and the price may be cut in half. When you sell, the price will suddenly rise.
3. Only rich people who make hundreds of times in the market can live well.
4. This market is a casino. Retail investors are just chips. The real gamblers are the dealers. When the dealers think that they can sell to retail investors by pulling the market, they will bet. When retail investors hold, the dealers may smash the market. The dealers may win, and retail investors are statistically a negative-sum game.
5. Although there is still some alpha here, I feel that I have no advantage. I should think about it.
6. In summary, 45% of BTC is held, the March contract lost 11%, and the July altcoin lost 11%, barely maintaining living expenses and the other 33% has not decreased. The altcoin (contract) can only make money in a bear market, and only BTC contracts can continue to make money.

BTC is like a toy, it is becoming less cool (look at ETH)
It is expected that when BTC reaches $150,000-300,000, more and more people will hold this view
Then, the diamond hand will be shattered
In order to avoid this possible doomsday, your HOLD BTC cost cannot exceed 70k, otherwise, you will experience the same pain as altcoins on BTC
There may not be a bull market after a bear market, and the end of falling to the bottom may be delisting

The whale smiled and said the difficulty of hell, while raising the sickle of leeks
People who enter the market after 2020 are either leeks or spectators in the crypto market
Therefore, BTC will eventually fail and become an ordinary currency like other altcoins, no longer scarce and circulated at will

The bull market may be back
The plunge on August 5 did not make the market surrender, which means it is difficult to see a new low
Spots below 60k are all low-priced chips
The market may be trading interest rate cuts
The trend has now gone out of a good market for buying on dips. I don’t know why it has started to have a serious negative premium, which means that as prices rise and time goes by, shorts will be forced to surrender. I think the normal rate can be used as an observation indicator of this trend

Basically, I have a point of view now, the bull market is over
I don’t have much experience
1. When I heard them say gamblers, I started to panic. I didn’t want to go to the casino for entertainment. I just wanted to make money
2. Winners have to eat, losers have to eat, and losers have to work to make money. The money people can invest in entertainment and gambling is limited
3. All these voices are the focus of the market, go to the central casino, pull the plate to ship, high FDV, the market does not seem to have any solution ideas, people pretend not to know and start talking about other topics
4. SOL has basically completed the path of ETH in the last round of bull market. MEME is the altcoin 2.0. The latest MEME Neiro shows a weak signal. The market can only run to about 130M
5. You can’t find liquidity. Cryptocurrency survives by fraud and squeezing. In the current market, there are not enough fools who are deceived into entering the market to provide liquidity
Those who enter the market will be ruthlessly squeezed by early investors (nearly 0 cost) and long-term investors (38k cost)
I adjusted my plan
1. Cleared all altcoins and may not buy them again in the future, realizing a loss of -33%
2. In order to reduce the squeeze, it should only accumulate below 40k. I am not sure whether the price will fall here. The cycle experience has changed. 3. The 40k target price comes from that if the initial investors are unwilling to release chips to balance the market risk, then the smart gambler should not enter the market. 4. I still hold BTC and XMR. In fact, I can't find other banks or other investment products. 5. Don't believe in good news and bad news. The market changes in June and July have nothing to do with good news and bad news. 6. Coinage rights and price manipulation are the core of making money here. If you don't have these two aspects, don't enter the market. The third method is to wait for the bear market.

Trump's approval rating rose after he was assassinated. We should hear this voice. Trump is not a strong president. He can't make America great again, but Americans voted for him. Americans want a dramatic president. They don't want political elites. They only choose between Trump and Biden. BTC rose because of drama. This is a dramatic bull market. Don't expect a violent bull market. No one can provide this liquidity, whether it is altcoins or BTC. The trend has just begun. Go long as much as you can and reverse short positions. But don't run too slowly like in the past and become the exit liquidity of others. May everyone run a little faster than others, Amen.

The market has made the loudest voice
You can't ignore it, it's MEME
Since ICO, the main route of altcoins is:
1. Founders try to make money by building public blockchain projects
2. Investors participate in investment to try to make money
3. Gamblers try to make money in the market
4. The altcoin returns to zero or the blockchain no longer has value/investment value/growth value
Buying cryptocurrencies from the market is defined by most people as gambler behavior, and they refuse gamblers to participate in investment, so MEME comes
Gamblers want to get the right to mint coins and want to get the value space. They don't enter cryptocurrencies for entertainment
MEME fair launch returns the right to mint coins to gamblers and skips all middlemen to go directly to step 4, which is no longer valuable
The market is warning cryptocurrencies that if this dilemma is not resolved, they will not get enough exit liquidity
This brings the next huge innovation to the place where, who will win the next blockchain
At least people can learn some simple insights from past successes:
1. Halving is a great design
2. Crowdfunding/fair launch is not bad, private placement/airdrop is a scam
3. AMM is a great design
4. Locking is a scam
5. Transparency is the foundation of trust, and trust and decentralization are the main themes of blockchain
6. Fraud often occurs in opaque places, and staying away from shady dealings can protect yourself

In fact, the price may not fall so low. Look at BTC. After the limit down, k can be pulled closer by 1% in 1 minute. This means that there are not enough shorts at the current price. This is due to the liquidation of a large number of high-leverage longs and the decline caused by selling. Shorts mainly use large stop-loss and small take-profit strategies to win continuously. Maybe perpetual contracts need to be changed. Longs need to pay 12% annual interest by default, which forces longs to adopt high-leverage strategies. When the market could soar dozens of times a few years ago, this interest rate might be reasonable. But now the market is obviously not rising. There is a ceiling for the rise and no bottom for the fall (it can be delisted at any time)

Cryptocurrency is a big scam. You need to rely on trickery to make money in the scam. There are not enough gamblers now, but more and more scammers. Scammers have a 75% chance of winning, while gamblers only have a 25% chance of winning. The goal of scams and gambling is liquidity. All winners understand one thing: take the money away before the scam ends.

Investors enter the market, speculators?
There will be no more bull market as before. This cycle is not the innovation of blockchain technology, but the innovation of blockchain capital
1. BTC may become a mainstream asset, and it will last for a long time as it continues to accumulate and rise
2. Blockchain technology will become popular, but it may have nothing to do with ETH, which depends on market competition
3. There is no need to pull the price of altcoins anymore. They are unlocked and smashed when they are online. It is simple and direct. Whether the altcoin rises depends on the number of investors, and whether it dies depends on the strength of the team
4. The exchange is cashing out its users, just like an e-commerce platform. Its products are its users. Whether it can succeed depends on whether it can convert existing users into speculative traders and attract more investors to enter the market
Investors do not need to pull the price. They take the risk of project death and patiently wait for the return after many years
Speculators often lose money, and freedom comes at a price
People should think clearly about their positioning. If you don’t want to die with a certain cryptocurrency, throw it to speculators when it rises
Think carefully about what to do in the future
ETH in July ETF passed, MtGox sold off in September-November, these two are negative, the market may still have a short time window to rise, and follow the inertia to test the rules of the past bull market again
Once MtGox meets the market demand, the market may fall into a long-term trough
Currently, the only coins I consider holding for a long time are
BTC
USDT
XMR
ETH
UNI (I haven't bought it yet, I will consider buying some after I sell the shitty cottage)

Witch censorship is bad, and witch hunting is evil
The crypto industry has been calling on the SEC to be transparent, but they should reflect on themselves. If they want to censor witches, please use transparent rules to maintain order
A community seduces a large number of witches to come to the party, and then slaughters witches. This behavior will lead people to the abyss
They let people confess and atone for their sins. I think this brings hope to people. They start to let people report each other. I think this will destroy everything
I didn't buy witch coins, but this kind of thing scares me. We should find a way to escape

After the BTCUSDC plug attack at 2:44 on June 18, 2024, I used the API to capture the transaction records at that time. The screenshot is the order history of the attack BTC
Let me describe what happened:
1. From 35529ms to 35555ms, 26ms, the attacker sold a large number of orders, lowering the price from 66895 to 63689, 200 orders per ms, a total transaction volume of 778btc, and a total average transaction price of 65700
2. The price was quickly manipulated to -5%. This is because Binance has spread protection, and the goal is to trigger stop-loss orders. Then the price fluctuated widely around 66k for tens of seconds and gradually returned to normal. There are usually only a few orders per ms
3. The market recovery process is accompanied by the triggering of a large number of stop-loss orders. Because the mark price has basically not changed, there should be no forced liquidation orders. It is mainly triggered by market stop-loss orders. The market sells 380btc, the average transaction price is 66400, and the market buys 509btc, the average transaction price is 66340
4. The attack may be a loss. Calculated at the market price of 66800, the attacker's selling loss is -824k, the market stop loss selling loss is -152k, the market buy profit is 234k, and the total profit and loss is -742k
5. The whole process is mainly for liquidity providers to make profits, because the price recovers after the flash crash. Whether the attacker makes a profit depends on how much liquidity he occupies in this process
This matter is similar to the on-chain oracle attack, which manipulates prices by making a large number of transactions in ms
It's ridiculous that on the decentralized chain, people try to find the hacker and convict him, while in centralized exchanges, this behavior is tacitly condoned and protected
I don't know if what I see is correct, but if you can't be protected here, the best choice is to leave

Can Binance still be trusted?
BTC BTCUSDC contract unfairly liquidates users
The screenshot is the btcusdc pin record at 2:44 on June 18, 2024
The price dropped from 66934 to 63553 and was instantly recovered. Because of this pin, my floating profit of 7000u triggered the market stop loss and turned into a loss of 7000u
1. I consulted the customer service, and he said it was normal. I was surprised. If such things do not require investigation/protection of users, how can users trust Binance
2. There is no pin at the btcusdc mark price. If I use the mark price to set the stop loss, it may not be liquidated
3. The btcusdc spot liquidity can be broken through by a few coins, and it can be manipulated even if the mark price is used. The btcusdc contract has 800 liquidity at 63500, which has better liquidity, but someone can manipulate the pin. After the liquidation, the position is closed for profit. As long as you set a stop loss/liquidation, you are giving money to the manipulator
4. I suspect that it is the market maker who does this, otherwise the manipulator is giving money to the market maker. I suspect that the market maker gets the backstage customer stop loss/liquidation data, and the market is smashed to trade 1.7k coins. If there is no accurate data, he may lose money.
5. I heard about the contract explosion before, but I didn’t expect to see it in 2024. The BTCUSDC chicken market, I guess the BTCUSDT contract can also do this. The BTCUSDT contract smashed 3500 points and only 7k liquidity. If BTCUSDC can, BTCUSDT may also have the same thing.
6. I guess it’s not just my position that was liquidated. If you are unfortunate, publish it together. We hope to have an investigation result. We want to know whether the trader who smashed the market during the pin is a market maker? The detailed transaction details of the pin trader, how did he smash the market and make a profit, and whether there is a problem with market liquidity?
Let’s see if this is fair, how Binance protects traders from this kind of price manipulation, 1.7k BTC positions were traded here, and the market manipulation worth $100 million

BTC Holy Grail
Recently, after continuous learning, I found that the Holy Grail really exists
This is a magical market
Eternal Earning
The method is very simple, as long as you earn enough, you can get the Holy Grail
1. You earn 400k wealth on BTC, you have earned enough
2. When BTC rises to the end, such as the recent high of 70k, sell 2/4BTC
3. 1/4U as bear market bottom-fishing funds, 1/4U as bear market living expenses
4. The remaining 2/4BTC, take 1/4BTC as spot hedging to short BTC at highs
5. If you are shorted and trapped, you don’t need to stop loss, just keep holding it to earn the interest of the short order
6. When the short position is deeply trapped, you can also do short-term long when you are sure, with a slightly higher risk. The winning rate of short-term shorting is very high. Even if you are trapped, you can earn 1% interest every month. If you have a slightly better short-selling technique, you can be a perpetual motion machine. The key is to make enough money. For example, a 100k short position contributes 1kusd interest every month, which is enough to support your life. You can sell a small amount of BTC when it goes up, and buy more BTC when it goes down. In a bear market, you have money to guarantee your life. Shorting perpetual motion may also cause miracles (earn several times a month). We can also calculate the upper limit of this holy grail. If you earn 20M, the interest of 1/4 short position is 50k per month. If it exceeds this number, you should not have the desire to perpetually short.
The Holy Grail of 400k-20M
If you want to get the American middle-class life, that is, the short position interest is 5ku per month, you need to earn 2M wealth on BTC.
Take the 200kBTC target price as the end point, then you need 2M/200k=10BTC
That is, if you invest 660k to buy 10 BTC now, then when BTC reaches 200k, you will have the American middle-class holy grail
😍

The bull market is gone, the scam is over
The high FDV label is not just for altcoins, BTC is the same
How much room for growth can BTC at 70k leave for those who come later?
I saw traders who helped whales suppress prices, shorted and made profits, then bought the bottom and went long and successfully lost their principal
People should leave this market, because some people really make money forever
It is expected that cryptocurrencies will be in a lost decade similar to Japan, and the price of BTC will not exceed 100k
This era has started since the top of the last bull market, and the bubble may burst in 3 years
I have liquidated multiple altcoins
I think liquidity will continue to be lost in the future
Don't spend money on other people's cryptocurrencies, the game is over

The dog dealer is backing up to pick up people
The market has been very strange in the past few days, and the copycats have taken turns to smash the market and suppress the price
BTC smashed the market at 10 o'clock. If it is shorting, it is more reasonable to directly smash through 67k and the first target of 65k
Now it is more like backing up to pick up people, so that the leeks who have the courage to go long can make money
Because the market was too bad in the past, it soared and then cut in half, many people can't make money and may be more pessimistic. The dog dealer is now giving money, hoping that these people can promote and attract new people to enter the market after the market is pulled up
The verification logic is very simple: go long on any coin you like, and stop loss when it breaks the previous low
If the dog dealer wants to pull the market, it will start before CPI to raise the price, and then you can set a loss to protect the principal
The premise of pulling the market is that CPI and the Fed news are good, but if the previous low is broken before CPI, I think I should leave this market
Even if this idea is wrong, two red 4hbars, the fall to 65k will definitely not stop, and the bottom-fishing must at least return to 59k

What is cryptocurrency?
We can learn from $ORDI
A year ago, you heard about ORDI and spent a few dollars to play 1k. Now ORDI has risen to 50u, and you have earned 50k
Then there is a rune airdrop to ORDI holders, and the rune can be sold for 5ku
Then the dog rune is airdropped to the rune holders, and the dog rune can be sold for 2ku
The one who buys ORDI, rune, and DOG is the buyer, only the ORDI you play yourself is called cryptocurrency

Oh my god, are there really fools who buy $BNB to mine after mining?
The mining income in the first few periods was less than 0.3%, and the transaction fee for buying and selling was 0.15%
The most important thing is that if you buy this thing, it will fall. It is easy to fall and difficult to rise.

There may not be a bull market, nor a cottage season
If there is no bull market, the bear market will not come again. The simple operation of buying low and selling high in the big cycle that people expect may not appear again, because everyone knows and plans to do so
BTC is moving towards the story of digital gold
If BTC succeeds, those who can buy low-priced chips may be either black swans or take over after success
If BTC fails, it may never set a new high again
Whether it is ETH, L2, or MEME, the cottage coins may need to find the real story
Even a small cottage with a valuation of 100 million requires people to sell 2,000 BTC, 0.01% of the total amount is enough to support its price
Who will buy it?
VC says they value the tokens held by VC at a discount. When people buy VC tokens, they own their wealth at a discount, and the money disappears
The gold rush era of cryptocurrency is over. People can make money in the market now because they take huge risks
The market will not have sufficient liquidity under this risk
I would remind people not to buy "witch hunting" coins. This is similar to JUNO confiscating whale tokens
There is also PEPE, which uses a blacklist to ban an early buyer
We learn to be with cryptocurrency, just buy the coins you like