After the panic selling the day before, some investors began to buy at low prices. With the Fed officials and Wall Street speaking out to appease investors, the market's concerns about the economic recession seemed to have eased. The four major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher at the end of the day, ending three consecutive declines. TSMC ADR rose 2.6% and Nvidia rose 3%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66 points

The S&P 500 rose 53.70 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03 points

The Nasdaq rose 166.78 points, or 1.03%, to 16,366.86 points

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 48.12 points, or 1.06%, to 4,567.57 points

In general, the market currently has both long and short voices on whether this wave of correction has ended. Everyone should still pay attention to the risks! Yesterday, Chong mentioned several times that if there was no volume during the day, we could wait until the evening to follow the trend of the US stock market. The US stock market rose yesterday, which also led to a rise in BTC and ETH! Some fans followed up and sent a message to Chong!

The general trend is unclear now, so it is better to do more intraday short-term trading. It is the safest thing to put U in the account before going to bed! The current situation is that we have no volume during the day, and only when the institutions rise at night will there be a wave of volume and market! Sometimes Chong is wondering if we have played too many contracts and all of them have been blown up! #BTC☀ #BTC走势分析 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

Since the fall of ETH, the turnover frequency of Grayscale ETF has decreased. Now only 30 to 40 million Ethereum are converted every day. CME and several other institutions receive the goods every day. The selling pressure is not great now. This shows that the institutions are not stupid. They will not convert without thinking. They will wait until the market is good to make a turnover! #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

Whether it is BTC or ETH, if there is no volume during the day, everything is just nonsense! ! Pay attention to the opening of the US stock market in the evening! Make orders that follow the trend! ​​​ #加密市场反弹

Why has the Fed been slow to cut interest rates?

The debt has reached 35 trillion US dollars, and the annual interest expenditure alone is an astronomical figure! The Fed does not want to repeat the mistakes of the stagflation in the 1970s, or the Fed has not thought about it: once the interest rate is cut, the huge amount of excess US dollars will be released from the banking system, where should they be arranged?

If it were in the past, this matter would be easy to handle. Because after the interest rate cut, the excess US dollars can enter the trading of global commodities such as oil and natural gas, taking the opportunity to push up international energy prices and profit from it.

But now, due to the fact that major global energy countries such as Russia and Iran have almost 100% separated from the US dollar trading system; and the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative led by China have begun to use a large number of bilateral local currencies for settlement; the proportion of the US dollar in global energy transactions and major commodity settlements is getting lower and lower. As of the end of April, more than 30% of international oil transactions no longer use US dollars. In 2021, this figure is less than 8%.

Therefore, after the Fed cuts interest rates, the huge amount of excess US dollars will no longer be able to flow into international energy transactions and global trade settlements as recklessly as before; the excess US dollars will be held back in the United States, pushing up the inflation that has finally come down, and repeating the tragedy of the great stagflation in the United States in the 1970s.

Of course, the Fed and the US elite have also planned for the future of excess US dollars. In the past two years, the AI ​​revolution and new energy development that the United States has hyped up are the ways out planned by the US elite for excess US dollars.

Unfortunately, these ways out are far from quenching thirst. Since American AI cannot be combined with physical manufacturing (to improve productivity), the scale of funds that can be accommodated is still too limited.

Maybe the Fed is also thinking about where those dollars will go after the interest rate cut! #加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息？

What is the Fed's interest rate hike?

The US interest rate hike means that the Fed raises the federal funds rate or other interest rates. This means that the cost of loans will rise and will have an impact on consumer spending and investment. The US interest rate hike is usually seen as a signal of US policy tightening. The interest rate hike generally means raising deposit rates and loan funds. After the interest rate is raised, funds will flow back to banks, and the cash in circulation will decrease.

How does the Fed implement the interest rate hike?

How does the Fed implement the interest rate hike? Every 6 weeks, the FOMC will hold a meeting in Washington. This meeting is generally called the interest rate meeting. Generally, it is held on Tuesday and Wednesday for two days. There are 8 times a year.

If the Fed raises interest rates, the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB will increase. The Fed's interest rate hike will increase the deposit interest of US depositors. Therefore, international investors will be more willing to hold US dollars, and international hot money will gradually flow into the United States. The US dollar is strong and appreciates relative to other currencies, so other currencies are relatively depreciating relative to the US dollar.

This wave of interest rate hikes in the United States began in March 2022. At this stage, the Fed is hanging on and delaying interest rate cuts! ! ! #美联储何时降息？

Yesterday, the bulls exploded, today, the bears exploded!!! Billions of dollars were lost in a few days!! Listen to Chong Ge’s advice, don’t play with BTC and ETH contracts, try to operate a simulation disk or become a 100U god of war! ​​​

Ethereum's volume at this point is still very small. Today, it's only over 400 million US dollars, so you need to pay attention.
🌹#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

Good news, Grayscale's ETF outflowed about 300 million yesterday! ! ! Net outflow of more than 60 million, and 5.97 billion is almost completed. ​​​#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易

Today's data is bullish. The unemployment rate has risen. The U.S. unemployment rate in July was 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, triggering Sam's Law, which predicts an economic recession. It is reported that Sam's Law is an indicator that predicts an economic recession. It believes that once the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the low point of the past year, it means that the economic recession has begun. This is conducive to interest rate cuts. For the currency circle, the Grayscale ETF's turnover is now here, so ETH has performed poorly recently!

What do rich people do every day? ?

1: Assets greater than 10 billion, want to live forever

2: Assets greater than 100 million-10 billion, thinking about financial planning all day long, sowing seeds everywhere, horse racing mechanism

3: Assets 10 million-100 million, busy with socializing all day long, Huashan sword, girls' game, time management master, successful person

4: 2 million-10 million, senior users of school district housing, wandering between high-end dinners and luxury goods

5: Assets 500,000-2 million, thinking about seeing the world all day long, Maldives today, Xishuangbanna tomorrow, the most beautiful scenery in the circle of friends

6: Assets less than 500,000, thinking about making money all day long, senior house slaves, thousand fans, involution experts

7: Assets less than 100,000, Russia-Ukraine war, Asia-Pacific strategy, world situation-view, global warming, refugee issues, talking about international affairs, a plate of peanuts and a bottle of wine, read the warmth and coldness of the world! !

So what do you focus on every day? The Fed meeting? Grayscale ETH? Or the selling pressure of Mt. Gox?

Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech on August 1, 2024! Summary of important contents:

1. Fed Chairman Powell focuses on the dual mission and strives to restore the inflation rate to the 2% target

2. The labor market has become more balanced, and the consumption rate has slowed but is still stable

3. Data shows that the labor market has returned to pre-epidemic levels, and the inflation level is slightly above the 2% target

4. As the labor market cools, inflation has declined, and risks are developing towards a better balance!

5. Interest rates may be expressed in September, depending on the consistent decline in inflation and expectations, and the stability of the labor market!

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has reached 100%: the probability of a one-code rate cut is 86.5%, and the probability of a two-code rate cut is 13.5%.

However, Powell seems to have ruled out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at a time. He said: "I don't want to specify what actions we are going to take, but this is not something we are considering right now."

In July, non-farm payrolls increased by 122,000, a six-month low. Inspired by Powell's dovish remarks and continued slowing employment data, the four major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher #美联储何时降息？

Good news, Grayscale's ETH still has more than 6 billion to sell out!!! Brothers, hold on a little longer! ​​​ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

In the last 24 hours, BTC, Ethereum, and other altcoins such as XRP, MATIC, pepe, BOME, etc. have exploded by more than 200 million US dollars! ! ! ! The open positions of BTC futures contracts on the entire network are 545,200 BTC, equivalent to about 35.152 billion US dollars! ! ! #美联储何时降息？ ​​​

Except for a few sectors such as meme and AI, and a few projects such as SOL that are expected to take over ETFs, the performance of most altcoins in this round of market cycle can be described as "disaster". There are three main reasons why altcoins perform so poorly:

The approval of ETFs has led to changes in the market's liquidity transmission mode. In the past, the path for incremental funds to enter the market was generally "stable coins - BTC, ETH - altcoins", but now incremental funds from traditional markets are more inclined to invest directly in BTC through ETFs, which also leads to the inability of funds to continue to transmit, resulting in a lack of liquidity in the altcoin market.

The continuous unlocking of "VC tokens" has brought continuous selling pressure, resulting in a market pattern of "supply exceeding demand" - Looking closely at the circulation changes of some altcoins, you will find that although the prices of some tokens continue to fall, the circulating market value continues to hit new highs.

New projects that opened at sky-high prices are constantly sucking the remaining liquidity in the market. io.net, ZKsync, LayerZero, Blast... A large number of popular projects that have been hyped for a long time have been launched one after another, and the FDV is generally at the level of billions of dollars, which has further aggravated the lack of liquidity in the altcoin market.

Considering that the convention of "altcoins do not move when BTC rises, and altcoins collapse when BTC falls" has been broken, the situation of altcoins in the circle will be better in the future!

July is coming to an end soon. Let's talk about your regrets in July. You can also talk about your goals and views for August! BTC🌹ETH ​​​

Exchanges and dealers like two types of people the most. One is the person who plays contracts and earns his funding rate, and the other is the person who trades frequently and earns his handling fee. The most feared is only one type of person, the person who holds on to his position, who will not trade regardless of whether the price goes up or down, and will not make a move until the target is reached. From beginning to end, you can only earn his handling fee twice.

It seems to be true🌹btc ​​​ #美国政府转移BTC #超级央行周

Since the beginning of July, Mt.Gox has transferred out about 95,500 BTC. Currently, there are about 46,000 BTC left in the wallet, and there are 30% left. The impact on the price of Bitcoin is gradually weakening.

After the news of Mt.Gox transferring $2.25 billion in Bitcoin came out, the price did not fluctuate much.

Not sure whether it is because these BTC have not yet been transferred to the creditors, or because the market has slowly adapted to the impact of Mt.Gox's selling pressure and is continuing to bottom out? The latest interest rate decision will be announced at the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve tomorrow morning. Contract players should pay attention to the possibility of pinning! #MtGox钱包动态 #BTC☀

ckb will have a wave recently, you can follow [cute]#CKBUSDT

After the listing of Ethereum spot ETF, how much is the real market demand for ETH?

Since the U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF was launched on July 23, there has been a massive outflow of funds, causing the price of Ethereum to fall by 9%. The main reason is that Grayscale’s spot Ethereum ETF experienced a large outflow of funds! ! The overall performance of the ETF is poor, with cumulative net outflows currently reaching $439.64 million.

Most of the selling pressure came from Grayscale. As of July 29, other major spot ETH ETFs including BlackRock, Bitwise, and Fidelity have recorded positive daily inflows.

Grayscale’s ETHE is outflowing faster than GBTC after a sharp drop in the Bitcoin spot market. Grayscale's ETHE massive outflows "could" reduce during the week.

Ethereum’s exchange withdrawal volume has decreased significantly since March. The estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has driven ETH price action during this volatile period. This indicator reflects the ratio of open interest in futures contracts to exchange balances. A higher ELR indicates that futures/perps are dominating price movements, which are typically short-lived or volatile. After the ETH ETF was approved, the price of ETH fluctuated in a range.

If you want to change this situation, you have to wait until Grayscale's ETH is outflowed! #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易