On Friday, the disappointing non-agricultural data did not extinguish investors' panic about raising interest rates. The higher-than-expected wage increase made many investors price the Fed to raise interest rates in July. U.S. Treasuries fell quickly after the release of the data, with 10-year and 30-year U.S. bond yields rising to their highest levels this year.

Meanwhile, yields on inflation-protected bonds, which represent real interest rates, are soaring. The nominal yield on the inflation-adjusted 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury note (TIPS) rose to 1.82% on Friday, the highest level since 2009.

The real interest rate usually represents the real investment income of the real economy and the real financing cost of enterprises. It has an important impact on the behavior of micro entities, financial resource allocation and asset pricing, and has received widespread attention from policymakers and market participants.

The latest Federal Reserve document shows that an interest rate cut may not come until 2026.

Last week, two economists at the Kansas City Fed, Johannes Matschke and Sai Sattiraju, said in their latest paper that to bring inflation down to 2%, the Fed would have to keep interest rates higher (above 5%) than The market expects a longer period, perhaps until 2026.

Economists point out that although the Federal Reserve tightened policy last year at the fastest pace since the 1980s, soaring inflation pushed the equilibrium level of interest rates in the U.S. economy to rise even faster. Because of this, the policy rate level will not enter a restrictive range until the first quarter of 2023.

Now the whole macro is that inflation, deflation and recession are intertwined, so now it seems that inflation has come down, the economy is going to recession, U.S. stocks are going to collapse, the U.S. dollar is going to collapse, and U.S. bonds are going to collapse, but it can't collapse because Real-time core inflation cannot come down, only the overall one can come down, because oil cannot come down in a short time, commodities will not come down, core inflation will not come down, and once wages go up, it will be difficult to come down, and interest rate cuts will only It has always been expected, just like the return of mining investment, it has always been to cut interest rates after half a year. The current inflation and U.S. debt are near high and far low, and they have been shifting. On the road of inflation and recession, gold will be affected by the United States. Suppress, the big pie is the prettiest boy, and it will be the first time to realize a little bit of Satoshi Nakamoto's wishes. When the recession has not really come, the general trend does not support the big pie to go bearish again, so hold on to the big pie!