操舟若神
@Square-Creator-48b648228
山高万仞，只登一步；此心光明，未来可期！
Following
Followers
Liked
Shared
See original
PINNED
After experiencing 2 rounds of bull and bear cycles, an 8-year veteran analyzes the layout strategy for altcoin season.
The altcoin season has officially begun. BTC's market cap percentage is declining; institutions are buying BTC while retail investors are entering altcoins.
The layout strategy for altcoin season is as follows:
Diversify layout across sectors and spread investments; if one side is dim, the other side may shine.
Six major popular sectors
1. Meme sector (In the last bull market, I invested in Doge, made ten times profit, then bought Shib. After earning from Shib, I diversified into animal coins, buying Big Pig and RACA. The asset peak for the meme sector reached over 5 million. Small investments can yield high returns. The layout strategy for the meme sector is strong narratives, strong players, and a thick pool.)
2. DeFi sector (The leader is UNI; other DEXs on different chains are also good. This time, the SOL chain's RAY, which I invested in, has significantly outperformed UNI. A sector can be paired with one leader + 2 dark horse coins to increase overall return rates. The subdomain RWA is also good.)
The layout strategy for altcoin season is as follows:
Diversify layout across sectors and spread investments; if one side is dim, the other side may shine.
Six major popular sectors
1. Meme sector (In the last bull market, I invested in Doge, made ten times profit, then bought Shib. After earning from Shib, I diversified into animal coins, buying Big Pig and RACA. The asset peak for the meme sector reached over 5 million. Small investments can yield high returns. The layout strategy for the meme sector is strong narratives, strong players, and a thick pool.)
2. DeFi sector (The leader is UNI; other DEXs on different chains are also good. This time, the SOL chain's RAY, which I invested in, has significantly outperformed UNI. A sector can be paired with one leader + 2 dark horse coins to increase overall return rates. The subdomain RWA is also good.)
See original
PINNED
$ETH
The variables for ETH are coming, for comrades who have been trapped for a long time, recharge your faith, the light is right ahead!
#山寨季将至？ #特朗普加密政策承诺 #美国大选后涨或跌？ #BTC创历史新高
1. ETF and policy aspects: On the first day, a net inflow of 52.29 million US dollars, Michigan has taken a groundbreaking move to become the first U.S. state pension fund to invest in Ethereum [ETH] ETF. Other states also have a great opportunity to follow suit!
After Trump took office, the first thing was to remove the SEC chairman, and the ETF staking rules are likely to change to allow staking, no longer the castrated version of the ETF!
2. Staking rate analysis
The staking rate has reached 28.7%, with an additional 25,980 ETH staked today.
3. Inflation situation analysis:
Daily inflation is around 1,500-2,000, gas fluctuates around 8-10. If the ETF flows in normally, it can perfectly offset this inflation, as long as the net inflow of the ETF maintains above 5,000 daily.
4. Market capitalization ratio and exchange rate with BTC
Market cap ratio is 13.72%, exchange rate is 0.03757, weekly line has stopped falling, undervalued.
5. The main bearish factor is that the foundation has been shamelessly offloading.
The variables for ETH are coming, for comrades who have been trapped for a long time, recharge your faith, the light is right ahead!
#山寨季将至？ #特朗普加密政策承诺 #美国大选后涨或跌？ #BTC创历史新高
1. ETF and policy aspects: On the first day, a net inflow of 52.29 million US dollars, Michigan has taken a groundbreaking move to become the first U.S. state pension fund to invest in Ethereum [ETH] ETF. Other states also have a great opportunity to follow suit!
After Trump took office, the first thing was to remove the SEC chairman, and the ETF staking rules are likely to change to allow staking, no longer the castrated version of the ETF!
2. Staking rate analysis
The staking rate has reached 28.7%, with an additional 25,980 ETH staked today.
3. Inflation situation analysis:
Daily inflation is around 1,500-2,000, gas fluctuates around 8-10. If the ETF flows in normally, it can perfectly offset this inflation, as long as the net inflow of the ETF maintains above 5,000 daily.
4. Market capitalization ratio and exchange rate with BTC
Market cap ratio is 13.72%, exchange rate is 0.03757, weekly line has stopped falling, undervalued.
5. The main bearish factor is that the foundation has been shamelessly offloading.
See original
Spot test order, $BTC stabilized, let's get the contract going! The guardian of btc is rising! First, buy some bnb for transaction fees $BNB , 10% off
The fees are all negative, -0.0008%, consuming the fees
Recent fundamental positive factors:
1. U.S. stock market opens on Monday night, soaring!
2. FTT officially starts compensation on the 3rd, 16 billion U of incremental funds rushing into the market
3. BTC's market cap share is decreasing, institutions have been buying ETH, tens of thousands every day, ETH is rising, altcoins will rise too, this cycle first looks to January 20 when Trump takes office, positive factors will land, take profit at 50%, and then observe the situation daily to gradually reduce positions, prepare to clear out spot positions and short the market
Recent fundamental negative factors:
1. Trump takes office
2. U.S. not lowering interest rates by the end of January, liquidity tightening
3. Japan likely to raise interest rates in January, huge exchange rate changes, negative risks for risk assets
#2025有哪些关键叙事？ #加密市场调整 #BTC上攻11万？
The fees are all negative, -0.0008%, consuming the fees
Recent fundamental positive factors:
1. U.S. stock market opens on Monday night, soaring!
2. FTT officially starts compensation on the 3rd, 16 billion U of incremental funds rushing into the market
3. BTC's market cap share is decreasing, institutions have been buying ETH, tens of thousands every day, ETH is rising, altcoins will rise too, this cycle first looks to January 20 when Trump takes office, positive factors will land, take profit at 50%, and then observe the situation daily to gradually reduce positions, prepare to clear out spot positions and short the market
Recent fundamental negative factors:
1. Trump takes office
2. U.S. not lowering interest rates by the end of January, liquidity tightening
3. Japan likely to raise interest rates in January, huge exchange rate changes, negative risks for risk assets
#2025有哪些关键叙事？ #加密市场调整 #BTC上攻11万？
See original
$BTC Nothing to do today, listening to music in the brothel
Crypto Insider, Butchering the Ox 12-28
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 89.3% (pay attention to risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Stable (today's gold price is 2620.3U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.84 (the yen continues to depreciate, which is good for crypto. There is a risk of interest rate hike at the end of January)
II On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 72 (greedy range, down 2 from yesterday), Google search trend 28
(2) ETF dynamics: BTC had a negative inflow of 3,006 yesterday; $ETH had a net inflow of 14,300; this week, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a cumulative net inflow of US$349.3 million. On December 28, according to Farside Investors data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a cumulative net outflow of US$377.6 million this week.
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2.eh/s, handling fee 7.39 gas:3 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.006% (normal)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.71%, down 0.95% from yesterday's 57.65%, which is good for altcoins
(6) bgb exploded, driving the platform coin sector, $BNB followed!
(7) Today's main logic of volatility review: weekend shrinkage, watch the altcoin performance
(8) Today's trading philosophy: follow your conscience, have nothing outside your heart, let the wind blow from the east, west, north, and south, and don't be moved by the rise and fall of the coin price!
Today's trading technique:
Using a four-dimensional perspective to observe the market trend, you will be able to climb to the top of the world and see all the mountains, and achieve a dimensionality reduction attack on the dog dealer!
BTC ETF BlackRock and Grayscale have net inflows, and other institutions have negative inflows, which is not a big problem. The negative inflows are slower than those in other days this week;
ETH ETF institutions continue to have net inflows, with a net inflow of 14,300, and no institutions have negative inflows, which is good for cottages;
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the trend of FTT tokens)
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas
3. Positive after option delivery
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstabs (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
The above content is for information sharing only,
and does not constitute any investment advice!
Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market!
#加密市场调整 #BTC上攻11万？ #2025加密趋势预测
Crypto Insider, Butchering the Ox 12-28
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 89.3% (pay attention to risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Stable (today's gold price is 2620.3U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.84 (the yen continues to depreciate, which is good for crypto. There is a risk of interest rate hike at the end of January)
II On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 72 (greedy range, down 2 from yesterday), Google search trend 28
(2) ETF dynamics: BTC had a negative inflow of 3,006 yesterday; $ETH had a net inflow of 14,300; this week, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a cumulative net inflow of US$349.3 million. On December 28, according to Farside Investors data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a cumulative net outflow of US$377.6 million this week.
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2.eh/s, handling fee 7.39 gas:3 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.006% (normal)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.71%, down 0.95% from yesterday's 57.65%, which is good for altcoins
(6) bgb exploded, driving the platform coin sector, $BNB followed!
(7) Today's main logic of volatility review: weekend shrinkage, watch the altcoin performance
(8) Today's trading philosophy: follow your conscience, have nothing outside your heart, let the wind blow from the east, west, north, and south, and don't be moved by the rise and fall of the coin price!
Today's trading technique:
Using a four-dimensional perspective to observe the market trend, you will be able to climb to the top of the world and see all the mountains, and achieve a dimensionality reduction attack on the dog dealer!
BTC ETF BlackRock and Grayscale have net inflows, and other institutions have negative inflows, which is not a big problem. The negative inflows are slower than those in other days this week;
ETH ETF institutions continue to have net inflows, with a net inflow of 14,300, and no institutions have negative inflows, which is good for cottages;
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the trend of FTT tokens)
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas
3. Positive after option delivery
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstabs (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
The above content is for information sharing only,
and does not constitute any investment advice!
Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market!
#加密市场调整 #BTC上攻11万？ #2025加密趋势预测
See original
$PNUT Sit tight and hold on, the villa is by the sea
1 PNUT Fundamental Analysis:
On December 11th, PNUT was included in the CB's roadmap, briefly benefiting and rising to 1.4U (fluctuation of 39.32%), having retreated 57.4% from the last positive event, nearing the bottom range.
Spot can be gradually entered at the support level, waiting for the official announcement on CB and Trump's inauguration to see subsequent market operations, anticipating a significant upward movement again.
2 Technical Analysis:
4-hour support level: 0.55-0.59U
Daily support level: 0.418-0.44U
Short-term support and rebound:
1. The current price is supported at 0.5963 USDT and rebounded to 0.6113 USDT.
Moving average positions:
1. EMA(5) = 0.6108 and EMA(10) = 0.6139 indicate that the short-term moving averages are close to the price, but a clear upward signal has not yet formed.
2. EMA(21), EMA(34), and EMA(55) show that mid-term resistance is significant, indicating that short-term increases may face resistance.
Volume changes:
1. Volume increased during the support rebound, indicating buying strength entering the market, but then retreated. It is necessary to observe whether the volume can continue to expand.
MACD and RSI indicators:
1. MACD: DIF and DEA values are very close to the zero axis, and the MACD histogram's negative values are shrinking, showing a weakening of downward momentum, but a golden cross has not yet formed.
2. RSI: RSI(6) = 40.45, RSI(14) = 37.20, RSI(22) = 38.62, all in a weak area but showing some rebound momentum after being oversold.
Conditions for confirming the short-term bottom:
If the price can continue to stay above the support level of 0.5963, accompanied by an increase in volume, and if EMA(5) crosses above EMA(10), it will more strongly confirm the short-term bottom.
3 Market Sentiment Analysis
1. Funding rate: 0.005%, at a low level
2. Greed and Fear Index: 72
3. Aggregate Long-Short Ratio: 0.8255
4 Operation Suggestions
$PNUT Spot entry range 0.418-0.61U, set three target prices for bottom fishing, can initially enter 30% to build a foundational position, to avoid missing opportunities.
Use contracts to hedge against spot positions, opening 5x leverage, and after making a profit, bring the spot cost to 0; if the situation is not right, open a short hedge.
Position management suggestions: Assuming a budget of 10,000 U
5,000 U for buying spot (50%) + 3,000 U for opening 5x contracts (30%) + 2,000 U as reserve funds (20%)
Assuming the direction is correct, after opening 5x long contracts and making a profit of 5,000 U, close the position to bring the spot cost to 0, avoid greed.
Assuming the direction is wrong, open a short position in the opposite direction, take profit, and buy spot to lower costs, using the remaining U to open long in the opposite direction.
1 PNUT Fundamental Analysis:
On December 11th, PNUT was included in the CB's roadmap, briefly benefiting and rising to 1.4U (fluctuation of 39.32%), having retreated 57.4% from the last positive event, nearing the bottom range.
Spot can be gradually entered at the support level, waiting for the official announcement on CB and Trump's inauguration to see subsequent market operations, anticipating a significant upward movement again.
2 Technical Analysis:
4-hour support level: 0.55-0.59U
Daily support level: 0.418-0.44U
Short-term support and rebound:
1. The current price is supported at 0.5963 USDT and rebounded to 0.6113 USDT.
Moving average positions:
1. EMA(5) = 0.6108 and EMA(10) = 0.6139 indicate that the short-term moving averages are close to the price, but a clear upward signal has not yet formed.
2. EMA(21), EMA(34), and EMA(55) show that mid-term resistance is significant, indicating that short-term increases may face resistance.
Volume changes:
1. Volume increased during the support rebound, indicating buying strength entering the market, but then retreated. It is necessary to observe whether the volume can continue to expand.
MACD and RSI indicators:
1. MACD: DIF and DEA values are very close to the zero axis, and the MACD histogram's negative values are shrinking, showing a weakening of downward momentum, but a golden cross has not yet formed.
2. RSI: RSI(6) = 40.45, RSI(14) = 37.20, RSI(22) = 38.62, all in a weak area but showing some rebound momentum after being oversold.
Conditions for confirming the short-term bottom:
If the price can continue to stay above the support level of 0.5963, accompanied by an increase in volume, and if EMA(5) crosses above EMA(10), it will more strongly confirm the short-term bottom.
3 Market Sentiment Analysis
1. Funding rate: 0.005%, at a low level
2. Greed and Fear Index: 72
3. Aggregate Long-Short Ratio: 0.8255
4 Operation Suggestions
$PNUT Spot entry range 0.418-0.61U, set three target prices for bottom fishing, can initially enter 30% to build a foundational position, to avoid missing opportunities.
Use contracts to hedge against spot positions, opening 5x leverage, and after making a profit, bring the spot cost to 0; if the situation is not right, open a short hedge.
Position management suggestions: Assuming a budget of 10,000 U
5,000 U for buying spot (50%) + 3,000 U for opening 5x contracts (30%) + 2,000 U as reserve funds (20%)
Assuming the direction is correct, after opening 5x long contracts and making a profit of 5,000 U, close the position to bring the spot cost to 0, avoid greed.
Assuming the direction is wrong, open a short position in the opposite direction, take profit, and buy spot to lower costs, using the remaining U to open long in the opposite direction.
See original
#2025加密趋势预测 #加密市场调整
Crypto Insider, Butchering the Ox 12-27
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 89.3% (pay attention to risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Stable (today's gold price is 2627.31U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.79 (the yen continues to depreciate, which is good for crypto. There is a risk of interest rate hikes at the end of January)
(4) After Trump won the election, at least three states are considering adopting a unique framework to establish their own Bitcoin reserves. (Pennsylvania/Texas/Ohio)
II. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 74 (greedy range), Google search trend 31
(2) ETF dynamics: Net inflow resumed, BTC net inflow was 4,781 yesterday; ETH net inflow was 33,500;
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2.eh/s, handling fee 7.39 gas:3 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0112% (normal)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 57.65%, and the copycat market has changed
(6) Today's main logic of volatility review:
1. Option pain point 85,000U, delivery completed, negative news landed and changed
2. ETF resumed net inflow, and institutions began to buy furiously. Sit tight and hold on!
(8) Today's trading philosophy: There is nothing outside the heart, everything that happens is beneficial to me. Either help me or save me!
Technique: Position management - 50% spot + 30% contract (5 times) + 20% reserve. After the contract is profitable, the spot cost will be reduced to 0 as quickly as possible
(9) New cycle, tentatively set the limit to January 20 to stop profit
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the trend of FTT tokens)
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas
3. Positive after option delivery
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 85,000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investing is risky, be cautious when entering the market!
Crypto Insider, Butchering the Ox 12-27
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 89.3% (pay attention to risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Stable (today's gold price is 2627.31U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.79 (the yen continues to depreciate, which is good for crypto. There is a risk of interest rate hikes at the end of January)
(4) After Trump won the election, at least three states are considering adopting a unique framework to establish their own Bitcoin reserves. (Pennsylvania/Texas/Ohio)
II. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 74 (greedy range), Google search trend 31
(2) ETF dynamics: Net inflow resumed, BTC net inflow was 4,781 yesterday; ETH net inflow was 33,500;
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2.eh/s, handling fee 7.39 gas:3 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0112% (normal)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 57.65%, and the copycat market has changed
(6) Today's main logic of volatility review:
1. Option pain point 85,000U, delivery completed, negative news landed and changed
2. ETF resumed net inflow, and institutions began to buy furiously. Sit tight and hold on!
(8) Today's trading philosophy: There is nothing outside the heart, everything that happens is beneficial to me. Either help me or save me!
Technique: Position management - 50% spot + 30% contract (5 times) + 20% reserve. After the contract is profitable, the spot cost will be reduced to 0 as quickly as possible
(9) New cycle, tentatively set the limit to January 20 to stop profit
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the trend of FTT tokens)
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas
3. Positive after option delivery
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 85,000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investing is risky, be cautious when entering the market!
See original
BTC Market Analysis and Strategy
Institutions are buying aggressively, net inflow restored
#BTC上攻11万？ #2025加密趋势预测
Institutions are buying aggressively, net inflow restored
#BTC上攻11万？ #2025加密趋势预测
See original
Crypto Insider, Butchering the Ox 12-26
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 91.4% (pay attention to risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to reaching an agreement. (Today's gold price is 2625.02U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.41 (the yen continues to depreciate, which is good for crypto)
(4) Russian Finance Minister: Russia is using Bitcoin for international trade
(5) On December 24, MicroStrategy announced that it would hold a special shareholders meeting to accelerate the 21/21 plan. The main proposals include: increasing the number of authorized Class A shares from 330 million shares to 10.33 billion shares to support future financing; increasing the number of authorized preferred shares from 5 million shares to 1.005 billion shares to expand financing options. (Stock split, make money and continue to reinvest in BTC)
II. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 62 (greedy range)
(2) ETF dynamics: negative inflow for 3 consecutive days, BTC net outflow yesterday was 2,380; ETH net inflow was 39,900;
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2.eh/s, handling fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0048% (fund exchange rate fluctuates slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.98%
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: option pain point 98000U, floating down 2.79%, wait for the opening of the US stock market to observe the trend
(8) Trading philosophy: follow conscience, butcher the cow, and go with the flow!
Technique: When you are in a good mood, ask yourself before each transaction: "Is this a real opportunity or just noise?"
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the trend of FTT tokens)
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas
3. MSTR continues to buy coins
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 85,000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investing is risky, be cautious when entering the market!
#BTC上攻11万？ #2025有哪些关键叙事？ #2025有哪些关键叙事？
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 91.4% (pay attention to risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to reaching an agreement. (Today's gold price is 2625.02U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.41 (the yen continues to depreciate, which is good for crypto)
(4) Russian Finance Minister: Russia is using Bitcoin for international trade
(5) On December 24, MicroStrategy announced that it would hold a special shareholders meeting to accelerate the 21/21 plan. The main proposals include: increasing the number of authorized Class A shares from 330 million shares to 10.33 billion shares to support future financing; increasing the number of authorized preferred shares from 5 million shares to 1.005 billion shares to expand financing options. (Stock split, make money and continue to reinvest in BTC)
II. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 62 (greedy range)
(2) ETF dynamics: negative inflow for 3 consecutive days, BTC net outflow yesterday was 2,380; ETH net inflow was 39,900;
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2.eh/s, handling fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0048% (fund exchange rate fluctuates slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.98%
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: option pain point 98000U, floating down 2.79%, wait for the opening of the US stock market to observe the trend
(8) Trading philosophy: follow conscience, butcher the cow, and go with the flow!
Technique: When you are in a good mood, ask yourself before each transaction: "Is this a real opportunity or just noise?"
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the trend of FTT tokens)
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas
3. MSTR continues to buy coins
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 85,000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investing is risky, be cautious when entering the market!
#BTC上攻11万？ #2025有哪些关键叙事？ #2025有哪些关键叙事？
See original
$BTC Price Trend Analysis:
Fundamentals:
Recent Potential Benefits:
1. On Monday, MSTR officially joined the Nasdaq 100, and that man continues to increase his holdings. MicroStrategy is now the fourth largest holder of Bitcoin globally, behind Bitcoin's creator Satoshi Nakamoto, BlackRock's Bitcoin trust, and cryptocurrency exchange Binance.
On December 24, MicroStrategy announced that it would hold a special shareholder meeting aimed at accelerating the 21/21 plan (the goal of which is to increase the Bitcoin holdings on the company's balance sheet through continuous purchases of Bitcoin and to benefit from it). The main proposals include: increasing the authorized Class A shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion shares to support future financing; increasing the authorized preferred shares from 5 million to 1 billion shares to expand financing options.
The likelihood of this proposal passing is very high, as Michael Saylor currently holds 46.8% of the voting power. Issuing more shares to buy Bitcoin is a positive for the stock price.
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas, options bearish sentiment materializes.
3. After the U.S. stock market opens in the evening, watch the trend.
Technical Analysis:
4-hour support 88564-92628U
4-hour RSI index 44.69
Trading Strategy:
Buy the dip, after buying enough BTC, borrow USDT to buy mainstream altcoins / open long positions on bottom altcoins, and ride the wave until Trump officially takes office on January 20, benefiting from the Spring Festival market.
#BTC上攻11万？
Fundamentals:
Recent Potential Benefits:
1. On Monday, MSTR officially joined the Nasdaq 100, and that man continues to increase his holdings. MicroStrategy is now the fourth largest holder of Bitcoin globally, behind Bitcoin's creator Satoshi Nakamoto, BlackRock's Bitcoin trust, and cryptocurrency exchange Binance.
On December 24, MicroStrategy announced that it would hold a special shareholder meeting aimed at accelerating the 21/21 plan (the goal of which is to increase the Bitcoin holdings on the company's balance sheet through continuous purchases of Bitcoin and to benefit from it). The main proposals include: increasing the authorized Class A shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion shares to support future financing; increasing the authorized preferred shares from 5 million to 1 billion shares to expand financing options.
The likelihood of this proposal passing is very high, as Michael Saylor currently holds 46.8% of the voting power. Issuing more shares to buy Bitcoin is a positive for the stock price.
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas, options bearish sentiment materializes.
3. After the U.S. stock market opens in the evening, watch the trend.
Technical Analysis:
4-hour support 88564-92628U
4-hour RSI index 44.69
Trading Strategy:
Buy the dip, after buying enough BTC, borrow USDT to buy mainstream altcoins / open long positions on bottom altcoins, and ride the wave until Trump officially takes office on January 20, benefiting from the Spring Festival market.
#BTC上攻11万？
See original
The Bitcoin price on Christmas 2010 was $0.25, and the current price of Bitcoin is reported at $98,000, a growth of 392,000 times over 14 years. The Bitcoin prices on Christmas in previous years were:
$0.25 in 2010; $4 in 2011; $13 in 2012; $682 in 2013;
$319 in 2014; $456 in 2015; $896 in 2016; $14,027 in 2017;
$3,815 in 2018; $7,275 in 2019; $24,665 in 2020; $50,430 in 2021;
$16,831 in 2022; $43,665 in 2023; $98,000 in 2024.
Comrades, how much will we see on Christmas 2025?
#“圣诞老人行情”再现
$0.25 in 2010; $4 in 2011; $13 in 2012; $682 in 2013;
$319 in 2014; $456 in 2015; $896 in 2016; $14,027 in 2017;
$3,815 in 2018; $7,275 in 2019; $24,665 in 2020; $50,430 in 2021;
$16,831 in 2022; $43,665 in 2023; $98,000 in 2024.
Comrades, how much will we see on Christmas 2025?
#“圣诞老人行情”再现
See original
#圣诞行情分析 #加密市场反弹 #比特币市场波动观察
Encrypted Internal Reference, Butcher Cuts the Beef 12-24
1. Key Focus on Global Financial Data and Events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 91.4% (be cautious of risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitical: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to reaching an agreement. (Today's gold price 2614.47U)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 157.27 (Yen continues to depreciate, favorable for cryptocurrency)
2. On-chain Data and Market Sentiment:
(1) Market Sentiment Analysis: 55 (Neutral - up 1 from yesterday)
(2) ETF Dynamics: Negative inflow for 3 consecutive days, yesterday $BTC net outflow of 2380; $ETH net inflow of 39,900;
(3) Mining Data Analysis: 866.2 EH/s, transaction fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC position weighted funding rate: 0.00106% (funding rate fluctuating slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market cap share 56.65%, (down 0.6% from yesterday)
(6) Bio Protocol (BIO) has become Binance's 63rd Launchpool project, officially opening on December 24 at 08:00 (Beijing time) for users to obtain BIO airdrop rewards by staking $BNB and FDUSD for a period of 10 days.
(7) Today's volatility main logic review: Christmas market, altcoins surge
(8) Daily Trading Philosophy: Actions can be good or malicious, to do good and eliminate evil is the principle of investigation
Recent Potential Positive Factors:
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to FTT token movements)
2. Christmas market
3. Institutions beginning new layouts after year-end settlement
Recent Potential Negative Factors:
1. Japan's next interest rate hike setback (January/March)
2. The U.S. pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large options volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investment carries risks, proceed with caution!
Encrypted Internal Reference, Butcher Cuts the Beef 12-24
1. Key Focus on Global Financial Data and Events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 91.4% (be cautious of risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitical: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to reaching an agreement. (Today's gold price 2614.47U)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 157.27 (Yen continues to depreciate, favorable for cryptocurrency)
2. On-chain Data and Market Sentiment:
(1) Market Sentiment Analysis: 55 (Neutral - up 1 from yesterday)
(2) ETF Dynamics: Negative inflow for 3 consecutive days, yesterday $BTC net outflow of 2380; $ETH net inflow of 39,900;
(3) Mining Data Analysis: 866.2 EH/s, transaction fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC position weighted funding rate: 0.00106% (funding rate fluctuating slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market cap share 56.65%, (down 0.6% from yesterday)
(6) Bio Protocol (BIO) has become Binance's 63rd Launchpool project, officially opening on December 24 at 08:00 (Beijing time) for users to obtain BIO airdrop rewards by staking $BNB and FDUSD for a period of 10 days.
(7) Today's volatility main logic review: Christmas market, altcoins surge
(8) Daily Trading Philosophy: Actions can be good or malicious, to do good and eliminate evil is the principle of investigation
Recent Potential Positive Factors:
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to FTT token movements)
2. Christmas market
3. Institutions beginning new layouts after year-end settlement
Recent Potential Negative Factors:
1. Japan's next interest rate hike setback (January/March)
2. The U.S. pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large options volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investment carries risks, proceed with caution!
See original
#圣诞行情分析 $ETH Market Analysis, Institutional Investor BlackRock aggressively buys ETH 27,300, total net inflow of 39,900, institutions are accumulating chips! Not selling below 4000U, don't be fooled into selling low-priced chips, hold steady!
Funding rate 0.0087%, normal range
With BTC exchange rate, 0.03618, at a low level
Waiting for favorable ETF rule changes
Funding rate 0.0087%, normal range
With BTC exchange rate, 0.03618, at a low level
Waiting for favorable ETF rule changes
See original
Americans celebrate Christmas, the US stock market only opens until 2 PM on the 24th, and is closed on the 25th. The translated wealth code is that there are no ETF institutions dumping stocks, liquidity is low, and the market capitalization of BTC has dropped to 56.5%, down 1% from before, which is negatively correlated with altcoins. When BTC's market cap drops, altcoins will rise. Altcoins have a two-day celebration, but the large options on Friday still need to pay attention to risks, 13.572 billion, with a pain point at 84,000 USD. Ensure risk control and prevent BTC from crashing on Friday; do not fall before the bull market starts! Additionally, the mining coin of 22,714,295,919 is for 10 days, which has not been this long in a while. Hold BNB steady, the new coin BIO is also good, with new tracks and new projects. CZ has also supported it; the heat is high, and mining it will likely surge like usual, becoming the leader in the DeSci track! The spring of 59,985,431,515 has arrived, with institutions continually buying large amounts of ETH. With Trump in office, policies are all green lights, mainly because the ETF will be changed to staking yields, and institutional funds are gradually coming in. Today's trading philosophy: bow down and guard your position, waiting for the right time. Waiting for trading opportunities is always a hundred times better than searching for them! 389,335,597,50 057,004,718,94 056,922,275,37 725,073,395,254,519,317,847,135,900,884,390
See original
pnut resists officially on cb benefits to run away
Which big brother can help me with what to do? I've been carrying this for two weeks, I'm exhausted, can't eat well or sleep well😓
See original
$SOL Buy at a low price
Musk responded to a discussion on social media about the possibility of the US President pardoning a well-known person in advance (the picture shows a composite picture of Biden and SBF), and he said: "I would be shocked if this does not happen."
Musk responded to a discussion on social media about the possibility of the US President pardoning a well-known person in advance (the picture shows a composite picture of Biden and SBF), and he said: "I would be shocked if this does not happen."
See original
Encrypted internal reference, Butcher dissects the ox 12-23
1 Focus on financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, the probability of not cutting interest rates today is 89.3% (watch for risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to an agreement. (Today's gold price 2624.45 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.56 Friday Japan announces unemployment rate
(4) On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 619.7 BTC, totaling 9.5 billion yen (approximately 60.68 million USD), increasing total BTC holdings to 1761.98 BTC.
(5) On December 23, Trump appointed former college football player and Republican House candidate Bo Hines as the executive director of the Presidential Digital Asset Advisory Council, which Trump referred to as the "Crypto Council."
2 On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 54 (neutral - down 5 from yesterday)
(2) ETF dynamics: two consecutive days of negative inflow (watch for risks)
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2 eh/s, transaction fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822 USD
(4) Today's BTC position-weighted funding rate: 0.0093% (funding rate normal range slightly fluctuates)
(5) BTC market cap share 57.25%, negatively correlated, slight decline
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: oscillating market, BTC 93700 USD tests support level then slightly rebounds, tests the upper pressure level of 97724, observe subsequent conditions after the US stock market opens in the evening. ETF needs to restore net inflows to confirm a trend change! Otherwise, continue to oscillate
(7) Daily trading philosophy: Life is like chess, no regrets in placing pieces. Act wisely, choice precedes effort!
Recent potential positive factors
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to FTT token trends)
2. Market after Christmas
3. Institutions starting new layouts after year-end settlements
Recent potential negative factors
1. Japan's next interest rate hike betrayal (January/March)
2. The US pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000 USD, nominal amount 14.209 billion USD)
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investing involves risks; proceed with caution!
1 Focus on financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, the probability of not cutting interest rates today is 89.3% (watch for risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to an agreement. (Today's gold price 2624.45 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.56 Friday Japan announces unemployment rate
(4) On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 619.7 BTC, totaling 9.5 billion yen (approximately 60.68 million USD), increasing total BTC holdings to 1761.98 BTC.
(5) On December 23, Trump appointed former college football player and Republican House candidate Bo Hines as the executive director of the Presidential Digital Asset Advisory Council, which Trump referred to as the "Crypto Council."
2 On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 54 (neutral - down 5 from yesterday)
(2) ETF dynamics: two consecutive days of negative inflow (watch for risks)
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2 eh/s, transaction fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822 USD
(4) Today's BTC position-weighted funding rate: 0.0093% (funding rate normal range slightly fluctuates)
(5) BTC market cap share 57.25%, negatively correlated, slight decline
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: oscillating market, BTC 93700 USD tests support level then slightly rebounds, tests the upper pressure level of 97724, observe subsequent conditions after the US stock market opens in the evening. ETF needs to restore net inflows to confirm a trend change! Otherwise, continue to oscillate
(7) Daily trading philosophy: Life is like chess, no regrets in placing pieces. Act wisely, choice precedes effort!
Recent potential positive factors
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to FTT token trends)
2. Market after Christmas
3. Institutions starting new layouts after year-end settlements
Recent potential negative factors
1. Japan's next interest rate hike betrayal (January/March)
2. The US pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000 USD, nominal amount 14.209 billion USD)
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investing involves risks; proceed with caution!
See original
Encrypted Internal Reference, Butcher's Dissection of Cattle 12-22
1. Key focus on financial data and events:
(1) January 29, 2025, today the probability of not lowering interest rates is 91.4% (note the risks)
(2) Geopolitical: Turbulence - Major progress! Ceasefire negotiations in Gaza enter the final stage (today's gold price 2621.39 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.42
2. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 59 (neutral)
(2) ETF dynamics: Negative inflow for two consecutive days (note the risks)
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2 EH/s, transaction fee 7.39, gas: 6, S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822 USD
(4) Today's BTC weighted funding rate: 0.009% (the funding rate normal range fluctuates slightly)
(5) BTC market capitalization ratio 57.27%, negatively correlated, slight decline
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: Weekend reduced trading volume, note the risks
(7) Trading mindset: Cultivate conscience, follow the trend, do not be swayed by price fluctuations! It's easy to break the thief in the mountain, but hard to break the thief in the heart
Recent potential positives:
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the movement of the token $FTT )
2. Market conditions after Christmas
3. Institutions starting new layouts after year-end settlements
Recent potential negatives:
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The U.S. pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large options volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000 USD, nominal amount 14.209 billion USD)
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investment involves risks, proceed with caution!
1. Key focus on financial data and events:
(1) January 29, 2025, today the probability of not lowering interest rates is 91.4% (note the risks)
(2) Geopolitical: Turbulence - Major progress! Ceasefire negotiations in Gaza enter the final stage (today's gold price 2621.39 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.42
2. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 59 (neutral)
(2) ETF dynamics: Negative inflow for two consecutive days (note the risks)
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2 EH/s, transaction fee 7.39, gas: 6, S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822 USD
(4) Today's BTC weighted funding rate: 0.009% (the funding rate normal range fluctuates slightly)
(5) BTC market capitalization ratio 57.27%, negatively correlated, slight decline
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: Weekend reduced trading volume, note the risks
(7) Trading mindset: Cultivate conscience, follow the trend, do not be swayed by price fluctuations! It's easy to break the thief in the mountain, but hard to break the thief in the heart
Recent potential positives:
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the movement of the token $FTT )
2. Market conditions after Christmas
3. Institutions starting new layouts after year-end settlements
Recent potential negatives:
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The U.S. pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large options volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000 USD, nominal amount 14.209 billion USD)
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investment involves risks, proceed with caution!
See original
Be cautious in operation, spot is king, buy the bottom in batches!
Crypto insider, butchering the cow 12-20
I Focus on financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 89.3% (hedging half a month in advance)
(2) Geopolitics: turbulence-major progress! Gaza ceasefire negotiations enter the final stage (today's gold price is 2605.6U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 156.87
(4) The core PCE price index, the "favorite" inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, will be released at 21:30 tonight
II. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 69 (greed, down 11)
(2) ETF dynamics: yesterday's net inflow -6706 BTC (negative inflow on the first day, pay attention to the risk of callback)
(3) Mining data analysis: 825.67.eh/s, handling fee 6.52 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 58588-92662U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0067% (The exchange rate of funds fluctuates slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 57.86%, negative correlation
(6) The main logic of today's fluctuations:
12.3% retracement from the historical high
1. Powell's hawkishness
2. Large negative inflows of institutional ETFs
It is recommended to operate with caution and wait for institutional ETFs to start continuous net inflows and the proportion of BTC market value to continue to decline before buying the bottom
(7) Trading philosophy: Follow your conscience, follow the trend, and don't be tempted by the rise and fall of currency prices!
Potential positives in the near future
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025)
2. Continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December
3. Japan maintains interest rates unchanged in December
Potential negatives in the near future
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstabs (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 84000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investment is risky, enter the market with caution!
#比特币市场波动观察 #加密市场回调 #比特币战略储备
Crypto insider, butchering the cow 12-20
I Focus on financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 89.3% (hedging half a month in advance)
(2) Geopolitics: turbulence-major progress! Gaza ceasefire negotiations enter the final stage (today's gold price is 2605.6U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 156.87
(4) The core PCE price index, the "favorite" inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, will be released at 21:30 tonight
II. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 69 (greed, down 11)
(2) ETF dynamics: yesterday's net inflow -6706 BTC (negative inflow on the first day, pay attention to the risk of callback)
(3) Mining data analysis: 825.67.eh/s, handling fee 6.52 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 58588-92662U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0067% (The exchange rate of funds fluctuates slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 57.86%, negative correlation
(6) The main logic of today's fluctuations:
12.3% retracement from the historical high
1. Powell's hawkishness
2. Large negative inflows of institutional ETFs
It is recommended to operate with caution and wait for institutional ETFs to start continuous net inflows and the proportion of BTC market value to continue to decline before buying the bottom
(7) Trading philosophy: Follow your conscience, follow the trend, and don't be tempted by the rise and fall of currency prices!
Potential positives in the near future
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025)
2. Continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December
3. Japan maintains interest rates unchanged in December
Potential negatives in the near future
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstabs (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 84000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investment is risky, enter the market with caution!
#比特币市场波动观察 #加密市场回调 #比特币战略储备
See original
Cryptography Internal Reference, Butcher Dissecting Beef 12-18
1. Key focus on financial data and events:
(1) Interest rate cut by 25 basis points (Powell turns hawkish, unlikely to cut rates in January next year, negative impact materializes)
(2) Geopolitics: Turmoil - Major progress! Ceasefire negotiations in Gaza enter the final stage (Today's gold price 2598.4 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.84 (positive, no rate hike, yen continues to depreciate)
2. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 69 (greed, down 11)
(2) ETF dynamics: Yesterday's net inflow of 2567 BTC (BlackRock continues to aggressively buy 3362 BTC, steady)
(3) Mining data analysis: 825.67 EH/s, transaction fees 6.52 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 58588-92662 USD
(4) Recent large options: December 20 maximum pain point 102000 USD, nominal amount 2.076 billion
(5) Today's BTC holdings weighted funding rate: 0.0083% (funding rate fluctuates slightly within normal range)
(5) BTC market cap share 57.08%, negatively correlated
(6) Today's volatility main logic review:
1. Powell turns hawkish
2. Japan does not raise interest rates
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025)
2. Continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December
3. Japan maintains interest rates in December
Recent potential negatives
1. Next rate hike in Japan backstab (January/March)
2. USA pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Risk of correction before Trump officially takes office on January 20
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investment carries risks, proceed with caution!
#美联储放鹰
1. Key focus on financial data and events:
(1) Interest rate cut by 25 basis points (Powell turns hawkish, unlikely to cut rates in January next year, negative impact materializes)
(2) Geopolitics: Turmoil - Major progress! Ceasefire negotiations in Gaza enter the final stage (Today's gold price 2598.4 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.84 (positive, no rate hike, yen continues to depreciate)
2. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 69 (greed, down 11)
(2) ETF dynamics: Yesterday's net inflow of 2567 BTC (BlackRock continues to aggressively buy 3362 BTC, steady)
(3) Mining data analysis: 825.67 EH/s, transaction fees 6.52 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 58588-92662 USD
(4) Recent large options: December 20 maximum pain point 102000 USD, nominal amount 2.076 billion
(5) Today's BTC holdings weighted funding rate: 0.0083% (funding rate fluctuates slightly within normal range)
(5) BTC market cap share 57.08%, negatively correlated
(6) Today's volatility main logic review:
1. Powell turns hawkish
2. Japan does not raise interest rates
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025)
2. Continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December
3. Japan maintains interest rates in December
Recent potential negatives
1. Next rate hike in Japan backstab (January/March)
2. USA pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Risk of correction before Trump officially takes office on January 20
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investment carries risks, proceed with caution!
#美联储放鹰