Be cautious in operation, spot is king, buy the bottom in batches!
Crypto insider, butchering the cow 12-20
I Focus on financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 89.3% (hedging half a month in advance)
(2) Geopolitics: turbulence-major progress! Gaza ceasefire negotiations enter the final stage (today's gold price is 2605.6U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 156.87
(4) The core PCE price index, the "favorite" inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, will be released at 21:30 tonight
II. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 69 (greed, down 11)
(2) ETF dynamics: yesterday's net inflow -6706 BTC (negative inflow on the first day, pay attention to the risk of callback)
(3) Mining data analysis: 825.67.eh/s, handling fee 6.52 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 58588-92662U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0067% (The exchange rate of funds fluctuates slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 57.86%, negative correlation
(6) The main logic of today's fluctuations:
12.3% retracement from the historical high
1. Powell's hawkishness
2. Large negative inflows of institutional ETFs
It is recommended to operate with caution and wait for institutional ETFs to start continuous net inflows and the proportion of BTC market value to continue to decline before buying the bottom
(7) Trading philosophy: Follow your conscience, follow the trend, and don't be tempted by the rise and fall of currency prices!
Potential positives in the near future
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025)
2. Continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December
3. Japan maintains interest rates unchanged in December
Potential negatives in the near future
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstabs (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 84000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investment is risky, enter the market with caution!