Cryptography Internal Reference, Butcher Dissecting Beef 12-18
1. Key focus on financial data and events:
(1) Interest rate cut by 25 basis points (Powell turns hawkish, unlikely to cut rates in January next year, negative impact materializes)
(2) Geopolitics: Turmoil - Major progress! Ceasefire negotiations in Gaza enter the final stage (Today's gold price 2598.4 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.84 (positive, no rate hike, yen continues to depreciate)
2. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 69 (greed, down 11)
(2) ETF dynamics: Yesterday's net inflow of 2567 BTC (BlackRock continues to aggressively buy 3362 BTC, steady)
(3) Mining data analysis: 825.67 EH/s, transaction fees 6.52 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 58588-92662 USD
(4) Recent large options: December 20 maximum pain point 102000 USD, nominal amount 2.076 billion
(5) Today's BTC holdings weighted funding rate: 0.0083% (funding rate fluctuates slightly within normal range)
(5) BTC market cap share 57.08%, negatively correlated
(6) Today's volatility main logic review:
1. Powell turns hawkish
2. Japan does not raise interest rates
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025)
2. Continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December
3. Japan maintains interest rates in December
Recent potential negatives
1. Next rate hike in Japan backstab (January/March)
2. USA pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Risk of correction before Trump officially takes office on January 20
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not constituting any investment advice!
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