There will be more things that the market will pay attention to next week.

Big tech earnings reports, meta Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft will all release earnings reports.

However, with the precedent of Google and Tesla’s releases, the subsequent releases will learn from each other’s strengths and weaknesses and avoid some too big risk fluctuations.

There are also the Fed meetings on the 30th and 31st. It depends on whether it will meet market expectations and start considering interest rate cuts in September.

Of course, there is also the big non-agricultural employment data on August 2nd.

It depends on whether the unemployment rate will continue to rise this time. If the unemployment rate continues to rise,

then the Fed will start to get nervous. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, then the probability of economic problems

is very high. So it is also what the market needs to pay attention to at the moment.

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As long as the economy is not in trouble, the extent of the interest rate cut will be in line with mainstream expectations

The Fed's slow interest rate cuts will lead to valuation release, and economic growth will lead to profit growth

If the interest rate cut exceeds expectations, it is likely that there is something wrong with the economy.

There may still be problems with the economy in the future, and this is a risk that cannot be ignored.

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Yesterday's headline was bullish. I guess many people didn't react.

No matter whether there is a rate cut at the end of the month, the positives outweigh the negatives for the future, so the overall problem will not be too big, just wait patiently. The subsequent market is still promising. At present, it is just a small setback in the main upward wave.

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On July 22, it was said that Biden's withdrawal from the election might be bad news.

It happened to be the highest point of this round.

I hope everyone can avoid the decline. Do your best and leave it to fate.

However, I am still very optimistic about the subsequent market. After all, the interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion. Therefore, the probability that the subsequent market will still pull back is very high, and the current market may be in a process of accumulating momentum in the main rising stage of the large level.

Be more patient.

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Biden's withdrawal from the election may be a negative.

1: Because the market has already priced in Trump's coming to power, if Biden withdraws from the election, it may cause problems with Trump's trading logic.

2: Mainly, there are still a few months before the real election at this stage, and anything can happen in these few months.

3: Therefore, the market of Trump's trading logic may be hindered in the short term. Of course, the most important thing is to observe the financial report data this week.

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The market always comes out in silence.

This wave of harvest is pretty good, it can be regarded as a harvest.

At present, this area is already in the pressure range. Let's see if there will be a third buying opportunity in the future. Wait patiently.

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At this stage, the market has a sense of silence, but the fact is just the opposite. It is currently a stage of logical transformation.

From the high point of 73,700, the price of Bitcoin has fallen for more than 122 days. Compared with the previous 21 years of decline, it has been a lot longer. It seems that it is in the rhythm of double tops, but will the market go down as expected?

Usually a bull market may have a 30% drop. If calculated from the high point, 30% is around 51,000.

At present, the sell-off in Germany has come to an end. Recently, it has been observed that ETFs have been in a state of continuous inflow, but the market has not rebounded or matched the increase.

The CPI released this month also tells us that the probability of a rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion. Instead, the market has begun to fall, which makes people confused.

In fact, it is not the case. We have noticed that the Russell 2000 has broken through the downward trend of 2 years and has formed a big positive line. This also means that small-cap stocks will go out of the market. Why will small-cap stocks go out of the market? The main reason is that small-cap stocks are good for interest rate cuts. After all, small-cap stocks are very sensitive to liquidity, and big cakes are also a kind of target that is sensitive to liquidity. In addition, after falling for several months, there is a probability that this long period of decline will end.

Now the big technology in the US stock market is in a large correction. Institutional funds have stopped profit from big technology and all funds have flowed to small-cap stocks, so relatively speaking, they will benefit greatly. For the currency circle, I am not sure whether it is an opportunity, but it is worth trying.

Another point to remind is that it takes time for big funds to enter the market. The turnaround of a giant ship cannot be completed in a short time, but it can be seen that there is already a trend of turning around.
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After Bitcoin fell below 6W, the entire structure is a double-top trend on the daily line. The subsequent trend depends on whether it can rebound back to above 6W.

Otherwise, the overall market will have to continue to look for important support, or it will take a longer time to fluctuate before it can be resolved.
At present, the two most important supplies are the supply of Mentougou and the supply of the German government.

These two problems can only be solved by waiting patiently for the passage of time, and the current Bitcoin ETF still does not have too much good funds to enter the market to undertake these two supplies, so it is still necessary to wait patiently in the general direction.

It is also unknown when the interest rate cut that the market has been waiting for will come, so there is still uncertainty risk in about 2 months. However, as time goes by, the uncertainty factors will be gradually eliminated in the future.

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As expected. At present, the daily price of Bitcoin closed with a long needle, which is the lowest point in the past two weeks. It depends on where the rebound will go. #美国6月非农数据高于预期 #德国政府转移比特币 #币安合约锦标赛 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？

The short-term decline will soon end. The focus is on whether it will break the new low in the next two days. If it does not break the new low, then the short-term decline will come to an end. Then there will be a rebound, but it is just a rebound. Whether it can get out of the trend still needs time, so be patient. #非农就业数据即将公布 #德国政府转移比特币 #币安合约锦标赛 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期

If the market has fallen so much, then tonight's non-agricultural data may cause a small rebound in the market, but it is hard to say how high the rebound will be.

The current trend is the same as expected, and it has reached 63,500. The follow-up depends on the strength of the fifth 4H decline. Whether it will fall below the previous low, but the fifth follow-up is likely to form a divergence, which will be an opportunity to enter the market. #非农就业数据即将公布 #币安合约锦标赛 #ASI代币合并计划 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低

I haven't written a market analysis for a long time. At present, the overall trend has entered the stage of the fourth 4H rebound. The follow-up will depend on the fifth 4H decline. In July, the market trend will be clearer and opportunities will eventually appear.

The darkness before dawn, the more this happens, the more obvious the opportunities will be. Because the general direction will start to improve after 2-3 months as time goes by.

By then, there will be interest rate cuts, the US election will be held, and various uncertainties will begin to be eliminated, so for the current decline, you have to think that the more opportunities are coming, because there will be more suitable price chips.

With the passage of Bitcoin spot ETF, the inflow of funds is so huge, and the gradual emergence of anti-globalization, there is a chance for Bitcoin to go international and be used for settlement in another system besides gold. So there is no need to panic in the general direction.
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July is the month when Mentougou will pay the compensation. As expected, we still have to wait until July. #美国PCE数据将公布 #币安合约锦标赛 #MegadropLista #CryptoTradingGuide #美联储何时降息？

Many people in the current market have many questions, why this round of Shanzhai can't take off. Why is the market structure so polarized. Why don't the coins I bought rise? I waited so hard for it to rise. If the big cake falls for a while, the Shanzhai I bought will fall back again, or even fall deeper.

In fact, the market will become and grow. The current market is in the stage of developing towards a mature market. Investors and institutional investors have undergone many changes. Investors are no longer willing to accept a large number of VC coins. High valuations and low circulation will continue to be unlocked, which will form high selling pressure.

For the current market, we can only wait patiently for July. There are also many good and bad things that will be implemented in July. The US stocks at the low end of July have also begun to release financial reports. Let's see how the financial reports of the big techs this time will meet expectations. However, I personally think that even if the profits meet expectations, there is a high probability that they will fall, mainly because the profits of AI are too lucrative.

Such a level is equivalent to "extreme panic"; such performance means that the number of stocks supporting large-cap stocks is getting smaller and smaller.

As we all know, the current outstanding performance of big technology and chip sectors is an important force supporting the market.
Then we have to consider whether big technology and chip sectors can continue to rise in the future? Can the remaining stocks provide support for the stock market to rise?

If not, then in the short term, the US stock market may have a risk of correction, and naturally the cryptocurrency market will also follow the correction, so we still need to pay attention to the risks.

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As early as last month, I said that the subsequent trend is likely to be volatile, and it will take time to accumulate the strength of the bulls. In addition, a large number of Tianwang (Tianwang)-level projects will be listed at the end of the month. #zkSync #LayerZero and #Avail #blast These large-cap coins will be listed on the exchange. How much blood will this suck from the market. So the subsequent pattern is also a big shock. It is difficult to get out of the trend.

Be more patient. Less impetuous.

The financial reports of the US imperial examination stocks will also be released at the end of July. At that time, we will pay attention to whether the profitability of those big technologies can maintain the growth beyond expectations. If it cannot maintain the growth beyond expectations, then the US stock market may cause a correction. After all, the profits of these big technologies are already very rich. So it is also a very wise choice to choose to stop profit at that time.
#币安合约锦标赛

For the second half of the year, we need to pay attention to the US election, the attitude of the Federal Reserve, and the corporate profits of big tech stocks in the US stock market. Only corporate profits can continue to drive the market. Otherwise, it is easy to fluctuate or fall. In addition, the expectations for big tech are very high now. If the profitability cannot exceed expectations, it will fall. Now the expectations are very high, and even if it meets expectations, it may be sold to stop profit. At present, the main support for US stocks is big technology. If it enters a decline or fluctuation, it will be bad for big cakes. So the risks are imaginable.

The first half of the year has risen for half a year. For the middle of the year, I also emphasized that it is difficult to get out of the trend and there will be more fluctuations. Patiently wait for the market to accumulate strength before a new wave of momentum can be created. In the past few months, I have been patiently waiting for new information from various meetings, the July interest rate meeting, and the more important ones are the dot plot and economic outlook on September 17-18.
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Let's talk about "anti-globalization" today. At this stage, the world is in a process of anti-globalization, and it is still in an early stage. Anti-globalization brings geopolitical conflicts, which are not in a good state for trade and economy. They are all developing their own, so for the stock market, it is also a structural market with a high probability. However, in this environment, Bitcoin is a relatively prominent thing that plays a certain role. If there is a war, the currencies of each country are not recognized enough, so gold must be used for settlement, but gold is not as convenient and fast as Bitcoin due to transportation and storage costs. Therefore, the United States' recognition of Bitcoin has been increasing in recent years. Everyone knows that the United States uses the US dollar to harvest the world. Due to anti-globalization, gold and Bitcoin will stand out in the conflict. Someone asked the United States what benefits it has through BTC ETFs. One of the important reasons is that the United States is unwilling to lose control of the world. Whether it is gold or BTC, it must hold the most chips in its own hands. BTC is a medium that can lead to the world and they will not miss it. They will not give up this harvesting weapon, and they must have the principle that even if it is useless, they must have it. At present, the recognition of the big cake is very high, and it is not ruled out that it will become the second harvesting weapon. This is the confidence in the future of the big cake.

At the same time, we must not forget the current market volatility. For tomorrow's CPI and the Fed's regular meeting, I personally still see the market as a volatile pattern. As far as the current situation is concerned, there are not many forces or events to drive the market, so volatility is a high probability event. Biden is also cutting the employment of illegal immigrants, the French Macron election also has a certain crisis, and wars and conflicts in various places have more or less impact. The unemployment rate is still a key issue of concern.

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Today's data is also very tangled. On one hand, the number of employed people has exploded. On the other hand, the unemployment rate has reached 4%. It has also reached a new high in more than 20 months.

The increase in employment data proves that the economy is very strong, and the new high unemployment rate also makes the US economy likely to enter a recession. It is very tangled.

At present, the employment statistics of the United States include illegal immigrants. So there may be a very large gap in the data. Just like the data gap between March and April is very large. The gap between the non-agricultural data in April and the non-agricultural data in May announced today is also very large. For illegal immigrants, if the government controls them, they will be cut very quickly, so the employment population data may not be greatly affected.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate is currently the most important thing for the Federal Reserve. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to stimulate. But there are many employed people at present. So it is very tangled.

In addition to this year's US election, there are more uncertainties. So the accumulation of energy by shocks may be the greatest probability.

The market is very tangled at present. It is similar to my previous judgment. It is a trend of great shocks.
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