All ETFs are selling! Is a big one coming?

Yesterday's data showed that the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 218 million US dollars in a single day, and Grayscale alone sold more than 2,100 BTC. BlackRock, which has been buying for a record 71 days, rarely made no purchases for two consecutive days. So far, the Bitcoin spot ETF has been in a net outflow state for two consecutive days, and Grayscale's historical net outflow has reached 17.102 billion US dollars.

Why is this data a signal? Since the launch of the ETF in January, whenever there has been a net outflow for more than two days, the price of Bitcoin has been on the decline, whether it is the plunge in mid-March or April 13 and April 14.

Second, other ETFs that were still buying yesterday have turned into shorts today. ARKB FBTC and other ETFs in the third and fourth positions are all in an outflow state. Only Franklin is in a buying state among the eleven, which also indirectly confirms the possibility of operations for short-term and future market uncertainties.

Third, today is Friday, and it will be a holiday soon. It is the last day for the US stock market to open. Everyone has seen the market situation. No one can escape the high point. Next is the closing of the monthly line. At this position at the end of the month, the downward space must be greater than the upward space. After the seven consecutive positive monthly lines, this negative closing line will have greater strategic significance and will better promote the future market.

In short, everyone has come to the end of April. Don't mess up because of the short-term correction. $BTC $ETH $BNB

If nothing unexpected happens, this will be the first 100x coin this year!

Let me talk about some data, which is the fundamentals that everyone likes to mention: 150 million in circulation, 1 billion in total, one of the leaders in the AI ​​sector, Ultraman Investment, Panlantir and Open AI jointly support, Davis double-click, no need to calculate full circulation, in fact, there is no need to do so, it is still undervalued.

Let's talk about the news. GPT5 may be released in the summer, ARKM will continue to receive good news, and now the price of 2.2 has risen from the bottom to 2+. It is not surprising that the long-term bull market will reach 20 dollars, the so-called 100x coin.

Let's talk about the final technical aspect: after the weekly arc cup handle is completed, the main force has liberated all the locked-in plates, the light boat has passed through thousands of mountains, and the healthy advantages of chip distribution have gradually emerged. Let's look forward to it together. $ARKM $FET $WLD

Binance's first game is coming! A must-try project!

According to a tweet from a Binance customer, although it was accidentally leaked, the number of people who logged in on the first day exceeded one million! So there is really no reason not to do it. The link is at the end of the article!

The first game officially launched by Binance on Tel: Moonbix! WEB3 version of the gold miner! As long as you have hands, the game is very simple, exactly the same as the 4399 gold miner you played when you were a child. It is updated 6 times an hour, which means there are 6 chances, and then you can directly get 10,000 points by binding your Binance account, which is pure free and early first mining!

Finally, I will give you the strategy. It is still the rule of the inviter, and the points earned by the people you invite will also be given to you in proportion! In addition, this game of Binance does not work with IPs from many places. At present, it has been tested that IPs from places such as Japan and Taiwan can enter. But Hong Kong and the United States do not work, so everyone should pay attention. #moonbix

Finally put the link:
https://t.me/Binance_Moonbix_bot/start?startApp=ref_7382210786&startapp=ref_7382210786&utm_medium=web_share_copy

FTM or SUI? There has to be one!

Everyone is familiar with these two public chains. In the last article, SUI was analyzed. Today, let’s talk about another old public chain FTM that has come back from the dead. FTM has been very popular recently. The price of the coin has doubled since the bottom and has returned to the EMA200 moving average. So why is it so strong recently?

When it comes to FTM, we must mention the recent coin swap and mainnet upgrade. FTM has announced the mainnet upgrade through its broadcast channel in the foundation and changed its name to "SONIC". With the launch of the Sonic blockchain, the new native token $S will also be released at the same time, and the supply will match that of FTM. The token will be exchanged for the new $S at a ratio of 1:1, which will facilitate seamless replacement by more users and allow FTM developers and dApps to migrate to Sonic smoothly.

Although coin swaps seem to have been verified as a very bad means for project parties in this bull market, the so-called coin swap of FTM is completely different from FET or even POL. Users can make two-way choices, retaining and switching between the two.

In addition, as we all know, in a bear market, project owners will hold back their own benefits and wait for a bull market to promote their products and expand market publicity. The recent FTM pull-up can be said to be the dealer's doing things, but it has also received more attention and recognition from retail investors. As of press time, according to CoinMarketCap data, FTM's trading volume has increased by more than 250% in the past three days, and the dApp trading volume on the network has also increased by more than three times in 24 hours, reaching 10 million US dollars. After the surge in trading volume, the movement of the currency price must be as expected by the project owner, complementing each other.

Under such a gimmick of "massive development behind the scenes", the support of the financial level is indeed what we hope to see. At present, such a continuation is not a flash in the pan. And if we look closely at Sonic, you will find that this system, which is expected to be upgraded by the end of 2024, is expected to increase Fantom's performance to 2,000 TPS, achieving almost super timeliness. The upgraded network will have the ability to verify more than 10,000 transactions per second, ensuring a verification speed of about 1 second. With such data support and consensus, I am more optimistic about the future of FTM. $FTM #美联储利率决议公布在即

Doubled from the bottom! Do you dare to chase the rise of such altcoins?

Everyone can see that the two best performing L1 public chains in recent times are SUI and FTM. Both of them have performed very strongly, especially SUI, which has risen by more than 100% from the bottom. I believe that many friends who have bought this round of altcoins will put SUI, APT, and SEI together and call them the three heroes of the new public chain, but it is obvious that only SUI can still maintain a high trading level so far, and the other two are already miserable.

The problem of SUI is obvious. We have said more than once that there is an immature and dangerous token economic model. The total amount is 10 billion, and more than 7 billion SUIs have been pledged, and more than 80% of the pledged supply is held by the founding team. From this point of view alone, it is undoubtedly a death sentence for him. Overly centralized token distribution and large-scale lock-up are taboos in this bull market. Such a high bubble makes it difficult for retail investors to follow the unlocking and keep their positions unchanged.

However, from the perspective of making money, we need to know one thing. The reason for choosing altcoins is that they will perform far better than Bitcoin in a certain period of time. Only in this way can it make sense to choose altcoins. Therefore, after comparing the same public chain projects, I want to express a point of view that SUI has the possibility of short-term trading.

The reasons are as follows: The first is that SUI's bull market performance is very good. After being launched during the last round of bear market, it performed much better than BTC in the 4 months from the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, with an increase of more than 5 times. Such a target will make us more confident to see the performance in the second half of the bull market. But at the same time, SUI's retracement has also reached a very low price, and the liquidity is very strong. The second point is that after hitting the bottom on August 4, SUI's daily trading volume has doubled in more than a month, and has been stable at this level, so this completely provides an opportunity with a profit and loss ratio, that is, while the dealer continues to pull up, SUI will be seen by more retail investors and institutions, and they are willing and happy to do this.

Therefore, for many right-side players and those who like to chase rising prices, SUI actually has some short-term trading opportunities, but in the long run the cost-effectiveness may not be that high.$SUI $FTM

No strategy analysis today: today I will tell a joke about Ethereum!

BTC 60000u for the first time, ETH 3800u
BTC 60000u for the second time, ETH 3100u
BTC 60000u for the third time, ETH 2800u
Now when BTC is 60000u for the fourth time, ETH only has 2300u left!

I really don’t know what sin we have committed by holding Ethereum all the time. It turns out that he is making up for the rise in logic, and praising him is not a priority, but the problem is that under this exchange rate, holding ETH is almost equivalent to chronic suicide. I even saw a post in the square saying whether ETH will become the next EOS. It’s really crazy and speechless. However, what can we do? In addition to reducing positions and paying attention to the right side of Ethereum, we can only lie flat. $ETH #新币挖矿HMSTR

CZ is about to be released from prison! The concept of "jail" is hyped again! ?

As we all know, CZ will be released from prison on September 29, which is the biggest dynamic this month besides the interest rate cut, and it is also a key event. Even though CZ does not directly manage Binance at present, he is still the one with the most say and holds real power, so the decision after he comes out will still affect the dynamics of the currency circle.

What we know is that CZ attached great importance to the education sector before he went to prison. Although it is not known whether he is in line with the government to make articles or to roll out projects to do it, the hype may not change. At present, the two tokens HOOK and EDU are in this concept. It is expected that he will continue to promote the development of this field in the near future.

In addition, the continuous mining of new products has also led to the recent strong performance of BNB. Under such a rhythm, CZ's return can be said to be more beneficial to BNB. In the past few days, Binance has also added Cat's API, so the rumors of listing are true. Binance has successively used projects in the TON ecosystem to attract new users and obtain resources, and has clearly played TON.

After being silent for so long, the BSC chain will also usher in a hard fork upgrade at the end of the month. This is also something that needs attention this month. Although it is suppressed by various public chains, BSC still relies on Binance's large user base to compete with SOL in the future market.

Finally, with the recent 50% increase in some monster coins in one day, we can see very strong SUI, CKB, etc., which can be said to have maximized the liquidity of the cottage after the sideways shock. However, it did not bring out any strong sectors, that is to say, there is no FOMO emotion yet. For short-term speculation, before CZ's return, the most suitable for speculation may be strong related tokens such as LUNA, CAKE, etc. $BNB $EDU $HOOK #新币挖矿HMSTR #新币挖矿CATI

Is the second bottoming out of BTC over? Will it continue to fall? ?

After a positive line, the bloggers who earn money on the square began to see more. In such repeated jumps and frictions, I don’t know if they are really watching the market with thinking. It has been half a year, and BTC has been sideways at the 6w position for more than half a year. It should be noted that this second bottoming out is completely different from the decline on August 5.

On August 5, the big cake inserted a needle to the position of 4w9k US dollars in one go, and closed at 5.7w US dollars on the second day, and rose back to above 6w US dollars on the third day. It can be said that the pace of regaining lost ground is very fast, without too much consolidation and short-term repair. Then this time, after reaching 5.2w US dollars on September 7, it experienced a week of circling and rising, and finally stood at the position of 6w US dollars when the weekend came. It can be said that this rebound obviously represents the symbolic significance of the bulls.

If we look at the crash in history, it is not difficult to find that there are only two possibilities. One is repeated friction, such as 519 in 21 years, after the 30,000 US dollars were inserted, the price repeatedly tested 2.9 and 2.8, and finally reopened a new bull market two months later. Another possibility is similar to the 312 pin, which released a huge amount, and then never gave a chance to get on the train, from 3000 to 1.2w. These two trends are often seen after a big drop. The current situation may be more inclined to the first kind of repeated sideways trading, a false break and then recovery, and the start of a new second half. Such fund absorption will appear to be more important and more suitable for the current market environment.

But don't forget that in terms of price and consolidation cycle, BTC's second bottoming has been completed. That is to say, if you are still shorting and waiting, I feel that you have missed many buying points with a high profit and loss ratio. Of course, we cannot predict whether this wave will give a lower low, but from the current stabilization to the recovery of various altcoins, the risk ratio of short positions is already higher than the risk ratio of holding. So, my friends, are you still waiting for a big pie starting with 4 before choosing to buy the bottom? $BTC $ETH #新币挖矿CATI

The exchange rate is terrible? Ethereum's left side entry is almost equal to nothing

Those who hold Ethereum or have participated in transactions in this bull market can feel that Ethereum has performed very poorly this year, and even lost the only slight increase in September. Since the merger of Ethereum in September 2022, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen by more than 50%. The current ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.0405, which has hit the lowest point since April 2021 again.

It may not be so obvious for spot, but for those who do exchange rates, the decline may be out of temper. Since Monday, large funds have intervened and are long on the ETH/BTC exchange rate. However, such incremental funds did not continue, and at today's closing stage, it is still falling. In fact, for funds that are long on the ETH/BTC exchange rate, it is obvious that it can support the short-term downward trend of ETH, but in the worst case, once it cannot be supported, it may be backfired and usher in a new low.

What I want to say here is that not only the exchange rate of Ethereum has been very bad this year, but in fact, the exchange rates of many mainstream altcoins/BTC have experienced a large drop since March this year. It is not difficult to find that the smaller the market value of the altcoin, the more the exchange rate will fall, even by more than 90%, and it is difficult for the exchange rate pairs outside the top 100 to return to the high point.

However, under such a decline, the market share index of BTC has not soared relatively, and even in this year, this indicator of BTC has not fluctuated much, which is also a morphological feature of this year. It means that the altcoin season has not arrived, and it also reflects the strong trend of BTC this year.

Therefore, for Ethereum and other altcoins, the best time is to wait for some opportunities on the right side to enter the market. On the left side, we have already selected stronger altcoin configurations such as SOL, BNB, etc., so in terms of time cost, Ethereum may be more suitable for right-side trading in this round. $BTC $ETH #美降息25个基点预期升温

After the plunge, why did no one dare to buy the bottom?

With the digestion of CPI data, BTC returned to above 58,000 US dollars during the day, and is still consolidating between 5.8 and 5.6. What I want to talk about today is why everyone generally dares not buy the bottom after the recent plunge in the past one or two months?

The first point is actually very straightforward, that is, there is no money to buy the bottom. For long-term investors, there are enough chips in hand, and the bottom shape at this moment is not clear, and it is not a very cost-effective buying point. For short-term investors, the recent ups and downs plus the large-range oscillation market also have many risks of missing out or being trapped, so before the currency price reaches a new low, there is actually no strong inflow of funds.

The second point is that after the market has been sideways for more than half a year, some investors have been washed away. The BTC status in the exchange has returned to a new low this year, which means that it has returned to the state of long-term holding. In the recent market, there is no stable output of positive sentiment, and there is no excessive large capital to buy the bottom. Obviously, everyone would rather let the bottom pass than act rashly. The funds we are talking about here may be the various landings in the fourth quarter, waiting for the entire economic cycle, under strong stimulus, to usher in a major improvement, that is, the arrival of the most important water release cycle.

According to data from coinank, the 30-day open interest funding rate of the contract has dropped to a negative value, which is a very rare situation. This has only happened 6 times since 2018, and each time it means a bottom signal in the medium and long term. Moreover, within 90 days after this indicator turns back, Bitcoin usually ushered in a big rise, which may reach an average return rate of 79% and a median return rate of 55%. ​​​

At the same time, based on the current market indicators, it can be seen that the panic index, the annual interest rate of leveraged lending in the exchange, and the altcoin seasonal index, etc., all hit new lows in September. These indicators and signs show that in the pessimistic attitude of everyone, the possible potential bottom has surfaced, and the next step is to anti-human batch bottom-hunting. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美降息25个基点预期升温

The election is coming! Who will win the political bet tonight! ?

On September 10, the second debate of the US presidential election will be held in the evening, and this debate will be the first and perhaps the only head-on confrontation between Harris and Trump after he succeeded Biden.

Since the debate between Biden and Trump at the end of June had a huge impact, Biden was forced to withdraw from the election. Therefore, with less than two months left before the election, the confrontation between Harris and Trump is also attracting much attention, and it will greatly affect the direction of the election results.

As we all know, in this round of election cycle, the trend of Bitcoin is very dependent on the short-term political trend, and speculation based on the attention of the two candidates and social media hype is also a way for everyone to make short-term profits.

But when we see this strange weather vane in the market, when Trump is elected, Bitcoin will break through 90,000, and when Harris is elected, Bitcoin will fall below 50,000, should we also pay special attention to it? Is such a research report really meaningful? If the plot really develops like this, who do you hope to be elected?

Finally, no matter who takes the initiative in the speech tonight, we all hope that Bitcoin can evolve into a new form of political expression, only in this way can we usher in our final bull market. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美国大选如何影响加密产业？

Bitcoin has quietly bottomed out? Is the altcoin still worth buying! ?

Back to the market on weekdays, it is the familiar rhythm of rising during the day and falling at 9:00 pm (not verified in the evening). But I don’t know if you have noticed that a small number of strong altcoins, except for Bitcoin and Ethereum, have already gone out of a relatively independent market. As long as BTC fluctuates or moves sideways, they will definitely pull out of the sky.

First, AAVE, which was analyzed a few days ago, has built a strong four-hour platform near the high point and has been running on the trend line. The current pressure position is 136, which is only one step away from the previous high of 150 in this round.

Second, SUI, which has always had a lot of volume at the bottom, although it doesn’t care about life and death when it falls, but it has to be said that the project party and the dealer of SUI will really make trouble. You don’t dare to enter because of my large locked position, then I will pull the market for you to see. (I think this is the only survival strategy for many public chains and L2 projects)

Third, BNB, which most people may not have noticed, because of the reduction in the update frequency of Lanuchpool, many people may not have noticed that BNB has completed a new daily level bottoming recently. And it only fell to 470.480, and now it is above 500. In the long run, BNB has been consolidating in the 500 range for more than half a year. I believe that whether it is the direction of CZ, or the launch of new mining or staking projects, BNB will be pushed to new heights.

This week we will analyze more altcoins within a week and give you more wealth codes and layout points! $AAVE $SUI $BNB #美联储何时降息？

ETH potential W-shaped double bottom? Can we still buy the bottom?

After the retracement on Friday, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen a small rebound over the weekend, but neither has broken through the downward trend, and no obvious volume has appeared.

From the four-hour and daily charts, Ethereum has diverged for a long time and reached the low point in early August, forming a double bottom structure on the K line. However, such a graph may not mean that it will rebound immediately, and the trend has not reversed at the moment. It is very likely that it will continue to test the low point, and the probability of creating a new low is not ruled out.

At present, for Ethereum, the effective support position is around 2250-2200 US dollars, and only if it breaks through and stands firm at 2400 can a reversal trend be formed, so those who want to buy the bottom don’t have to be so anxious, there are still opportunities. $BTC $ETH #美联储何时降息？

Rate cut = US stocks, gold all-round collapse?
Review the trend of various assets in the financial market during the rate cut cycle!

After the pullback on Friday, BTC came to around 5w4k USD. Regarding the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, the market may not buy it. We mentioned the trend of BTC after the rate cut cycle in the previous article. What about the trend of traditional financial assets such as gold? Let's take a look at the performance patterns of major asset classes when the Fed started the round of rate cuts in the data:

From historical data, within 6 months after the Fed started the rate cut cycle, the average return of gold was significantly higher than other assets, with a winning rate of 100%, showing an absolute advantage in the rate cut cycle. Then let's interpret the detailed performance of each asset in detail:

> US stocks: In the two months before the rate cut, most US stocks rose, only falling in 2001; after the rate cut, most US stocks continued to rise, and continued to fall in 2007 and 2001, because these two rate cuts were accompanied by economic recessions.

>U.S. Treasury bonds: In all six rounds of interest rate cuts, whether before or after the rate cuts, whether in the short term or in the medium and long term, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has shown a continuous downward trend.

>US dollar: In the last four rounds of interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index showed a volatile downward trend in the two months before the rate cuts; in the two months before the rate cuts in 1989 and 1984, the U.S. dollar index showed a continuous upward trend. After the rate cuts were implemented, there was no obvious pattern in the trend of the U.S. dollar index in the short term or in the medium and long term.

>Gold: In the two months before the rate cuts, gold mostly showed a volatile upward trend, and only continued to fall in 1989; after the rate cuts were implemented, there was no obvious pattern in the short term trend of gold, but it showed an upward trend in the long term.

If we analyze the price trend more carefully, we can find that after officially entering the rate cut cycle, gold usually rises within 20 trading days. Data shows that in the 2000 cycle, COMEX gold rose by 0.52% 20 trading days after the first rate cut; in the 2007 cycle, it rose by 0.80% and 5.29% on the 1st and 20th day after the first rate cut; in the 2019 cycle, it rose by 3.79% and 5.43% on the 5th and 20th day after the first rate cut.

So in summary, during the rate cut cycle, it does not mean that all commodities will usher in a big explosion, and the performance rules of different markets are not the same, but overall, it is still relatively optimistic and optimistic about this rate cut.$BTC $ETH $BNB #美联储何时降息？

ETH's futures ETF is off the shelves? VanEck plans to liquidate Ethereum ETF!

According to Businesswire, ETF issuer VanEck announced plans to close and liquidate its Ethereum futures ETF (EFUT), and the VanEck ETF Trust board of directors approved the liquidation and dissolution of the fund.

As soon as the news came out, along with the potential non-agricultural data, BTC broke through 55,000 US dollars, and we have had this concern for a long time. After ETH's ETF was just listed, we published an analysis that ETH's futures ETFs are not easy to pass, and if the operation is not good, it is likely to be delisted. I put the specific analysis below:

Original analysis:
Regarding ETFs, although the issuance is relatively smooth at present, it also faces some problems. BlackRock and Fidelity's sales are acceptable, but other institutions, including Grayscale and ARK, have not sold well. The reason why Grayscale dares to maintain a higher fee rate is actually to gain an advantage in the competition for ETFs.

Although it has passed many ETF institutions, survival is still a problem. If the sales of ETFs are not ideal, who can make a profit and survive becomes the key. Grayscale seems to have lost its advantage due to management fees, but it has the longest ETF experience and user base, plus high management fees. Even if users leave, it will take some time.

During this period, Grayscale was able to obtain better returns than other institutions through higher fees and eventually survived. Other institutions are troubled by management fees in the competition, and sales are not ideal. If this continues, some institutions may withdraw from the market after the competition.

Finally, we review this news. VanEck continues to monitor and evaluate its ETF products, covering multiple factors, including performance, liquidity, asset size under management, and investor interest. The decision was made based on an analysis of these factors and other operational considerations to liquidate the fund.

It is reported that shareholders of the fund can sell their shares on the exchange where the fund is listed before the market closes on September 16, 2024. After the market closes on September 16, 2024, the fund shares will no longer be traded on the listing exchange and will be delisted subsequently. The fund liquidation date is expected to be on or around September 23, 2024. $ETH #美联储何时降息？ #美国8月非农就业人数不及预期

Is a rate cut necessarily a good thing? Let's review the trend after the last rate cut!

With the market falling again, it seems that all the friends have lower expectations for this rate cut. Although the rate cut will lead to a series of market measures, is it necessarily a good thing? Will there be a big rise before mid-September? Is there any bull market left?

Today, let's take a look at how the crypto market has performed after each rate cut, and whether there has been a surge! First of all, I can state my point of view very straightforwardly. Although the current price is still sluggish, for the cryptocurrency market, the rate cut must be treated as a positive, especially for this year's market environment, the rate cut is the final fuse.

Regarding the historical trend of Bitcoin (BTC) after the US rate cut, we can analyze it one by one from the following time periods: As shown in the figure, the red line is the rate cut, and the green line is the rate hike. We can see that the two years of rate hikes from 2018 to 2019 perfectly match the BTC bear market. When the interest rate hike cycle ended and the interest rate cut cycle came, BTC ushered in the last round of super bull market from 2019 to 2020.

In the figure, we take the most worthy reference period around 2020 as an example: July 2019 to March 2020: The Fed began to cut interest rates before the epidemic disturbance, and the price of BTC first fell from about 10,000 US dollars to 7,000 US dollars, and then rebounded to 10,000 US dollars. In 2028, affected by the epidemic, the Fed quickly cut interest rates and launched a large-scale quantitative easing policy. At this stage, after the 312 plunge, the price of BTC rose from about 5,000 US dollars to 65,000 US dollars.

Many people will say that the previous price has nothing to do with the Fed's interest rate hikes and cuts, but it should be noted that the interest rate cuts must be combined with the current market environment. At present, digital currencies such as BTC are traded as assets and have been recognized by the country, regulatory agencies, and ETFs.

The approval of ETFs was also a matter at the beginning of the year. Compared with previous interest rate hikes and cuts, the reference significance is actually not that great. On the contrary, for this bull market, the interest rate cut can be said to be the fuse that affects the global financial market and will ignite the cryptocurrency market. Whether you accept it or not, the current BTC is driven by macro events and liquidity, and this joint attribute must be positively correlated.#美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Final analysis before the September rate cut: a precursor to a sharp drop! ?

Two conclusions are given directly: First, if a 25 basis point rate cut is announced in September, it is in line with expectations. It is not bad for the current environment, nor is it good, so more trends need to be seen in conjunction with economic indicators, including the unemployment rate in the past half month, non-agricultural data tomorrow night, etc.

Second, if a 50 basis point rate cut is announced in September, it is not necessarily good. This shows that the United States has announced an economic recession, which is bad to some extent. For example, after 312 in 2020, after the extreme market conditions appeared, the U.S. stock market circuit breaker broke out and the interest rate was cut by 50 basis points. This also means that unless there is an extreme market before the meeting, this interest rate cut does not want a large interest rate cut.

In other words, if the first interest rate cut is 50 basis points, it is equivalent to admitting an economic recession or even admitting that the U.S. economy is in crisis. This will directly create anxiety in the market, not only affecting the currency market, U.S. stocks and other capital markets, but also having a certain impact on the real economy and foreign trade.

Third, but there is no third option. It is impossible to raise interest rates, and the possibility of not lowering interest rates is almost zero. So overall, the rate cut is biased towards 25 basis points.

Finally, how can the market eliminate the impact of economic recession? In fact, as long as the interest rate cut is announced, whether it is a soft landing or a hard landing, the market will face the digestion of this news. We need to wait until the expectation of economic recession gradually weakens and the overall economy recovers after the first interest rate cut before we can see what we call a big bull market. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美联储何时降息？

AAVE just won't fall? How to keep the price strong!

Despite the recent market retracement, friends have found several strong altcoins that have not fallen, one is AAVE and the other is UNI. We all know that the progress of UNI and SEC cannot be resolved so quickly, and the launch of V4 is a potential possibility for subsequent layout. So how can the price of AAVE remain strong? Is the new plan worth paying for? ?

First, let's take a look at the price of AAVE. Although the latest plan has not yet been implemented, it is also a good thing. The current price is still at this year's high point, and it has not even retreated with the sharp drop of BTC. Most altcoins are in a downward trend, while AAVE's daily level is in a strong state waiting to break through.

In the new plan on the official website, it is not difficult to see two important information: First, all Aave tokens that have not been sold by the foundation will be frozen, nearly 100 million US dollars, and will no longer flow into the market. It can be said that it is a plan to force lock-up to reduce circulation. Second, in the future on-chain staking rewards, the project party will take out part of the project income, repurchase Aave from the market, and reward it to the pledgers. In such a lock-up + repurchase plan, AAVE DAO has indeed become popular again. The data also shows that in terms of user growth, AAVE has grown exponentially in recent months, far higher than lending projects such as COMP in the same period.

In addition, in the new cooperation plan, AAVE has also had new developments. Aave V3 integrates USDS and savings USDS (sUSDS) and provides native token rewards. And AAVE will create a new SKY/Aave market to achieve seamless interaction and exclusive rewards. These two points are also the best way to stimulate the market at present. As of press time, we have also noticed that another whale on ETH is buying AAVE, and the price is not low. This is the second whale to buy more than 10 million US dollars in a few days. So overall, AAVE is still worth our continued attention and layout. $AAVE #AAVE #加密市场急跌

Will meme be hyped after the bull market? How do you view the future of meme?

A few months ago, a small public survey was conducted to see what currencies people used to make money in this bull market. The final answer was somewhat unexpected. It was more meme coins on pepe and sol. Rather than value coins such as BTC and ETH, many of these people are new to the cryptocurrency circle from outside the circle. Such survey results bring an obvious conclusion, that is, the effect of meme will bring a large number of outsiders into the industry.

The reasonable point is that there are no complex technical requirements and no smart contract oracles. For them, meme is a hot project that they can understand and buy, and the price is still low. Then the product of such a profit-loss ratio is actually the best for newcomers.

And most of us know that the earliest meme should be doge coin. But in fact, in this bull market, the meme track has ushered in a big explosion. In fact, the rise of meme is inevitable, and the most direct reason is inseparable from the anti-VC movement of retail investors.

The rise of BRC20 assets and memes this year is actually generally attributed to one reason: the chips of these projects are relatively dispersed, achieving the so-called "fair distribution" and avoiding a certain institution from monopolizing profits. This allows more profits in the project to flow to retail investors, stimulating the enthusiasm of the entire market, because we, investors, can share the benefits and generate a wealth effect.

So another core point is that the reason why this wave of memes can develop into a mainstream track now is because multiple projects have completed the myth of wealth creation. This kind of common marketing method of memes, which is to pull the market to convince people with rising prices and promote the myth of wealth creation, such as who has earned 30 million US dollars in two hours, and spread fomo fear in the community, is actually completely in line with the psychological expectations of retail investors.

So in this market environment, it is expected that the second half of the bull market may be the same, and new meme projects that break the circle will appear. The public's demand for freshness, or just entering the circle, must be met by these memes. $SOL $PEPE $WIF #美联储何时降息？

Are you all waiting for Ethereum to make up for the rise? Can it reach 3000! ?

After experiencing the boring market over the weekend, let's take a look at the current running trajectory of BTC. It is in a small-level parallel channel. The upper pressure level of 6.5 failed to break through twice, and the lower support of 63500 was also not broken several times.

This graph has reached a critical position today, and it is very likely to break or insert a pin. After the sideways trading over the weekend, there will often be some small pins on Monday. The upper and lower levels are not predicted for the time being, but there should be some signals of a change in the market today.

In addition, Ethereum is also running under a small-level suppression, with a pressure level of 2800 US dollars. Only after breaking through and stabilizing can it see the possibility of 3000. The gap position currently seen on CME is also 2800-3000. Is it possible to fill it in the near future? In fact, the possibility is very high, but Ethereum in an extremely weak state can only follow the general trend, so even if 3000 is seen above, the current position of the profit and loss ratio is not that high.

After looking at the altcoins, they are basically in the process of consolidation from the upward trend. The follow-up trend of BTC breaking through 6.2 since last week has also come to an end. I can give you a few operation strategies later:
1. For altcoins, if BTC rises to 67-675 quickly this week, the altcoins will have to stop profit after following the rise. The pressure of the daily line here is relatively large
2. For those who have not yet boarded the train, the altcoins at the 6.2 position after the callback will be a better buying point, with a higher profit and loss ratio$BTC $ETH $BNB #新币挖矿DOGS