Rate cut = US stocks, gold all-round collapse?

Review the trend of various assets in the financial market during the rate cut cycle!

After the pullback on Friday, BTC came to around 5w4k USD. Regarding the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, the market may not buy it. We mentioned the trend of BTC after the rate cut cycle in the previous article. What about the trend of traditional financial assets such as gold? Let's take a look at the performance patterns of major asset classes when the Fed started the round of rate cuts in the data:

From historical data, within 6 months after the Fed started the rate cut cycle, the average return of gold was significantly higher than other assets, with a winning rate of 100%, showing an absolute advantage in the rate cut cycle. Then let's interpret the detailed performance of each asset in detail:

> US stocks: In the two months before the rate cut, most US stocks rose, only falling in 2001; after the rate cut, most US stocks continued to rise, and continued to fall in 2007 and 2001, because these two rate cuts were accompanied by economic recessions.

>U.S. Treasury bonds: In all six rounds of interest rate cuts, whether before or after the rate cuts, whether in the short term or in the medium and long term, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has shown a continuous downward trend.

>US dollar: In the last four rounds of interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index showed a volatile downward trend in the two months before the rate cuts; in the two months before the rate cuts in 1989 and 1984, the U.S. dollar index showed a continuous upward trend. After the rate cuts were implemented, there was no obvious pattern in the trend of the U.S. dollar index in the short term or in the medium and long term.

>Gold: In the two months before the rate cuts, gold mostly showed a volatile upward trend, and only continued to fall in 1989; after the rate cuts were implemented, there was no obvious pattern in the short term trend of gold, but it showed an upward trend in the long term.

If we analyze the price trend more carefully, we can find that after officially entering the rate cut cycle, gold usually rises within 20 trading days. Data shows that in the 2000 cycle, COMEX gold rose by 0.52% 20 trading days after the first rate cut; in the 2007 cycle, it rose by 0.80% and 5.29% on the 1st and 20th day after the first rate cut; in the 2019 cycle, it rose by 3.79% and 5.43% on the 5th and 20th day after the first rate cut.

So in summary, during the rate cut cycle, it does not mean that all commodities will usher in a big explosion, and the performance rules of different markets are not the same, but overall, it is still relatively optimistic and optimistic about this rate cut.$BTC $ETH $BNB #美联储何时降息？