After the plunge, why did no one dare to buy the bottom?

With the digestion of CPI data, BTC returned to above 58,000 US dollars during the day, and is still consolidating between 5.8 and 5.6. What I want to talk about today is why everyone generally dares not buy the bottom after the recent plunge in the past one or two months?

The first point is actually very straightforward, that is, there is no money to buy the bottom. For long-term investors, there are enough chips in hand, and the bottom shape at this moment is not clear, and it is not a very cost-effective buying point. For short-term investors, the recent ups and downs plus the large-range oscillation market also have many risks of missing out or being trapped, so before the currency price reaches a new low, there is actually no strong inflow of funds.

The second point is that after the market has been sideways for more than half a year, some investors have been washed away. The BTC status in the exchange has returned to a new low this year, which means that it has returned to the state of long-term holding. In the recent market, there is no stable output of positive sentiment, and there is no excessive large capital to buy the bottom. Obviously, everyone would rather let the bottom pass than act rashly. The funds we are talking about here may be the various landings in the fourth quarter, waiting for the entire economic cycle, under strong stimulus, to usher in a major improvement, that is, the arrival of the most important water release cycle.

According to data from coinank, the 30-day open interest funding rate of the contract has dropped to a negative value, which is a very rare situation. This has only happened 6 times since 2018, and each time it means a bottom signal in the medium and long term. Moreover, within 90 days after this indicator turns back, Bitcoin usually ushered in a big rise, which may reach an average return rate of 79% and a median return rate of 55%. ​​​

At the same time, based on the current market indicators, it can be seen that the panic index, the annual interest rate of leveraged lending in the exchange, and the altcoin seasonal index, etc., all hit new lows in September. These indicators and signs show that in the pessimistic attitude of everyone, the possible potential bottom has surfaced, and the next step is to anti-human batch bottom-hunting. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美降息25个基点预期升温