$SOL: Not as strong as before but if it manages to break out of this compression, aim for ATH's. Important to watch and see what $BTC does, everything will follow its lead.
$BTC: My bearish thoughts I believe were wrong. We've broken out of the daily compression and are at the weekly resistance now. If we are able to flip this, we're ready to trend again pending any fake out. Buying here is good R:R since any daily close below the compression (57.7k) would invalidate you with the potential upside of new ATH's.
Being a beartard sucks and I hope that we can trend up now. The market has been boring for long enough.
Looks like up is the direction?? Lfgg happy to be wrong with my beartard bias. I hope this isnât a fake out and I wonât treat it as one until it does become one. Starting to position
$BTC: Big day today, looks more like it's gonna break upwards, invalidating my bear posts yesterday. I would guess a visit to 61k before FOMC tomorrow and then the direction should establish itself. I hope it's up and we can make some money
Hate to be bearish on the coins but if we go significantly lower, I think we will look back at those times being exceptional buying opportunities next year
The weekly structure is still bearishly biased. Not much strength being shown here. I believe this leads to the mid cycle washout that we have gotten in every other cycle. I think that the ETF 40k level will hold in a soft landing scenario and that's what you want to buy even if a hard landing comes later. The RSI is also rejecting the 50 level, adding confluence to the potential break down.
The daily chart shows a compression that is as tight as the one we had in October of 2023 before breaking out. The trend forming move is coming very soon, likely on or after Wednesday due to FOMC. Since the RSI and Stochastic RSI have completed their bearish retests and the PA looks weak, I estimate the probability of a downwards break at 65-70% and an upwards break at 30-35%.
With FOMC happening in 2 days, we'll need to see what the resolution of the daily compression is.
My bearish invalidation is weekly closes and/or strength above 61.8k.
It just makes so much sense to me that this asset just retraces the whole run up for one last slap in the face to its holders. Surely this would get all the diehard ETH bulls to give up and present an excellent buying opportunity to buy their capitulation.
Iâm doing less analysis on this one and going with my gut.
$SOL: This chart is very bearish to me unfortunately and I'm still targeting $78.
The daily chart shows an inability to reclaim the D1 EMA200. Therefore, the compression is beginning to break down after a fake out that happened 10 days ago with the $SOLBTC pair having already begun the breakdown process. The RSI and Stochastic RSI oscillators have also completed their textbook bearish retests and now have room to move lower.
On the weekly , there was a failed attempt to retest the EMA13+21 trend for the first time in the last 6 months. This reinforces my bearish bias, which I've maintained for the last few months on this asset. Additionally, the RSI has also fallen below the 50 level.
I target $78 because of the horizontal support and MA100+EMA200 confluence. If that level is lost, the next major area would be $47-50. My hope is that prices go low enough to present excellent buying opportunities heading into a looser monetary policy environment.
$BTC: Oscillators have completed their bearish retests. RSI 50 level from below and the Stochastic RSI is over 80. We haven't been able to push into D1 EMA200 so far and with Saylor announcing that his buys are completed one can wonder what will happen next.
Currently leaning bearish until the market shows strength. Reclaim D1 EMA200 and consolidate between EMA200 and MA100 and we've got a chance to break upwards. If not, watch out below.
I really wanna be bullish and get max long but the market just keeps showing that it's weak. Maybe something changes in Q4 or we get the soft landing drop into the low 40's in Nov-Dec and uponly from there as QE returns?
$BTC: Rejecting from daily trend inside the MA compression. Before getting bullish you want to see price consolidate in the top half of the compression (between EMA200 and MA100) at the very least imo. It's not looking great rn
$BTC: Weekly RSI 50 level is lost. Levels to try and buy the bottom would be around 37-42k in the better case scenario and 21-24k in the worst. Even if we get a hard landing I doubt it'll be worse than the covid crash. Things might get uglier going into EOY and again, it's probably best to protect yourself considering the unfriendly environment. This doesn't look like a move that is done after spending 6 months at these levels
It's very possible now that the daily compression breakdown of $BTC and $SOL that I wrote about a few days ago is starting to happen. Watch for the daily closes and continuation downwards in the coming days.
If you're still bullish you should at the very least consider protecting your downside just in case
$SOL: Once again we find ourselves at the range low. Will it break this time? Currently leaning towards yes considering that the USD, BTC and ETH pairs look bad. The daily compression would also break to the downside on a loss of $128 so watch out below