It's very possible now that the daily compression breakdown | n1c0 on Binance Square

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It's very possible now that the daily compression breakdown of $BTC and $SOL that I wrote about a few days ago is starting to happen. Watch for the daily closes and continuation downwards in the coming days.
If you're still bullish you should at the very least consider protecting your downside just in case

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SOL

130.65

-0.22%

BTC

57,846.51

-1.58%

943

0

Replies 0

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$BTC: My target remains around 40k. The weekly structure is still bearishly biased. Not much strength being shown here. I believe this leads to the mid cycle washout that we have gotten in every other cycle. I think that the ETF 40k level will hold in a soft landing scenario and that's what you want to buy even if a hard landing comes later. The RSI is also rejecting the 50 level, adding confluence to the potential break down. The daily chart shows a compression that is as tight as the one we had in October of 2023 before breaking out. The trend forming move is coming very soon, likely on or after Wednesday due to FOMC. Since the RSI and Stochastic RSI have completed their bearish retests and the PA looks weak, I estimate the probability of a downwards break at 65-70% and an upwards break at 30-35%. With FOMC happening in 2 days, we'll need to see what the resolution of the daily compression is. My bearish invalidation is weekly closes and/or strength above 61.8k.

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Hate to be bearish on the coins but if we go significantly lower, I think we will look back at those times being exceptional buying opportunities next year

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$ETH: Targeting .036 for $ETHBTC and ~$1350. It just makes so much sense to me that this asset just retraces the whole run up for one last slap in the face to its holders. Surely this would get all the diehard ETH bulls to give up and present an excellent buying opportunity to buy their capitulation. I’m doing less analysis on this one and going with my gut.

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$SOL: This chart is very bearish to me unfortunately and I'm still targeting $78. The daily chart shows an inability to reclaim the D1 EMA200. Therefore, the compression is beginning to break down after a fake out that happened 10 days ago with the $SOLBTC pair having already begun the breakdown process. The RSI and Stochastic RSI oscillators have also completed their textbook bearish retests and now have room to move lower. On the weekly , there was a failed attempt to retest the EMA13+21 trend for the first time in the last 6 months. This reinforces my bearish bias, which I've maintained for the last few months on this asset. Additionally, the RSI has also fallen below the 50 level. I target $78 because of the horizontal support and MA100+EMA200 confluence. If that level is lost, the next major area would be $47-50. My hope is that prices go low enough to present excellent buying opportunities heading into a looser monetary policy environment.

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$BTC: Oscillators have completed their bearish retests. RSI 50 level from below and the Stochastic RSI is over 80. We haven't been able to push into D1 EMA200 so far and with Saylor announcing that his buys are completed one can wonder what will happen next. Currently leaning bearish until the market shows strength. Reclaim D1 EMA200 and consolidate between EMA200 and MA100 and we've got a chance to break upwards. If not, watch out below. I really wanna be bullish and get max long but the market just keeps showing that it's weak. Maybe something changes in Q4 or we get the soft landing drop into the low 40's in Nov-Dec and uponly from there as QE returns?

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