$BTC: My target remains around 40k.

The weekly structure is still bearishly biased. Not much strength being shown here. I believe this leads to the mid cycle washout that we have gotten in every other cycle. I think that the ETF 40k level will hold in a soft landing scenario and that's what you want to buy even if a hard landing comes later. The RSI is also rejecting the 50 level, adding confluence to the potential break down.

The daily chart shows a compression that is as tight as the one we had in October of 2023 before breaking out. The trend forming move is coming very soon, likely on or after Wednesday due to FOMC. Since the RSI and Stochastic RSI have completed their bearish retests and the PA looks weak, I estimate the probability of a downwards break at 65-70% and an upwards break at 30-35%.

With FOMC happening in 2 days, we'll need to see what the resolution of the daily compression is.

My bearish invalidation is weekly closes and/or strength above 61.8k.