军师九天
九天，资深分析师、实战派，原XX证券高级分析师。十许年股票、期货、金汇币市等领域实战经验。独创的九天战法和天机交易系统，无论在日内超短交易上，还是中长线的波段趋势把握上，表现都极为惊艳！目前半退休状态，佛系投资，看心情分析，欢迎关注！推特：
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Makes sense!
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The $100,000 position for BTC does have some selling pressure. If it can drop significantly, falling to around $86,000 would be quite good. If BTC drops by 20%, other cryptocurrencies are expected to drop by 30% to 50%.
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MarsBit News
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New Trends in the Stablecoin Arena: 23 Projects Announce Financing in the Second Half of the Year, Binance and Circle 'Century Reconciliation'
Original author: Nancy, PANews
Reprint: Lawrence, Mars Finance
As the scale of the stablecoin market continues to expand, the fundamentals are undergoing multifaceted upgrades. Currently, from the ice-breaking cooperation between Binance and Circle, to the concentrated layout of crypto giants, to frequent financing activities and the gradual improvement of the policy environment, the liquidity and application scenarios of the stablecoin sector are rapidly expanding, accelerating its rise as one of the core narratives of this cycle.
Binance and Circle 'reconcile', leading giants accelerate the expansion of stablecoins.
On December 11, Binance officially announced a strategic partnership with Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, to expand the adoption of USDC and support the development of the global digital asset and broader financial services ecosystem. According to the agreement, Binance will deeply integrate USDC into its product line, providing trading, savings, and payment services for 240 million users globally, and will include USDC in the company reserves. Circle will provide Binance with technical support, liquidity, and accompanying tools.
Reprint: Lawrence, Mars Finance
As the scale of the stablecoin market continues to expand, the fundamentals are undergoing multifaceted upgrades. Currently, from the ice-breaking cooperation between Binance and Circle, to the concentrated layout of crypto giants, to frequent financing activities and the gradual improvement of the policy environment, the liquidity and application scenarios of the stablecoin sector are rapidly expanding, accelerating its rise as one of the core narratives of this cycle.
Binance and Circle 'reconcile', leading giants accelerate the expansion of stablecoins.
On December 11, Binance officially announced a strategic partnership with Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, to expand the adoption of USDC and support the development of the global digital asset and broader financial services ecosystem. According to the agreement, Binance will deeply integrate USDC into its product line, providing trading, savings, and payment services for 240 million users globally, and will include USDC in the company reserves. Circle will provide Binance with technical support, liquidity, and accompanying tools.
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Under the purchasing limit of #USUAL , the systemic decline is still able to maintain such strength, indicating it is quite favored by institutions. The TVL is growing rapidly, and at this speed, it will surely break 1 billion by the end of the month! In January, it is expected to challenge the 2 billion mark. A TVL of 2 billion means that the protocol's revenue will exceed 80 million, with a circulating supply of 500 million, a 30 times price-to-earnings ratio corresponds to a price of 30*0.8/5=4.8, and a 40 times price-to-earnings ratio corresponds to a price of 40*0.8/5=6.4. (The above is purely personal analysis, and any actions based on it are at your own risk.)
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Usual——The number one coin in a bear market!
🔥🔥 Usual target: 50 USD!
Brothers, I am the person who bought over 20,000 BNB at 1.5 USD in January 2017 and did not hold on. Who could have imagined that in just a few years, it could rise to 700 USD? Every time I think about this regretful transaction, I tell myself that for good projects, we might as well imagine boldly; their growth often far exceeds expectations!
Next, let's get to the point and talk about why I believe usual may have a hundredfold upside potential. I am extremely optimistic about it for three main reasons:
1. Usual is a community project with 13 investors collectively obtaining 5% of the tokens, locked for 12 months. This extremely low ratio can be seen as the project having no VC, so there is no need to worry about institutional sell-offs. The project was launched at the beginning of a bull market, coinciding with investors' deep aversion to VCs, making it a timely opportunity.
Brothers, I am the person who bought over 20,000 BNB at 1.5 USD in January 2017 and did not hold on. Who could have imagined that in just a few years, it could rise to 700 USD? Every time I think about this regretful transaction, I tell myself that for good projects, we might as well imagine boldly; their growth often far exceeds expectations!
Next, let's get to the point and talk about why I believe usual may have a hundredfold upside potential. I am extremely optimistic about it for three main reasons:
1. Usual is a community project with 13 investors collectively obtaining 5% of the tokens, locked for 12 months. This extremely low ratio can be seen as the project having no VC, so there is no need to worry about institutional sell-offs. The project was launched at the beginning of a bull market, coinciding with investors' deep aversion to VCs, making it a timely opportunity.
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Let's talk about Usual
Viewpoint: usual is seriously underestimated! #USUAL
Reasons: 1. Pre-market trading ~ Binance purchase restrictions, which temporarily prevented institutions and large investors from making large-scale investments
2. The vast majority (99.9%) of investors did not read its white paper carefully, resulting in fatal misjudgments in market value and valuation.
We know that the maximum supply of Usual is 4b. Many cautious investors are used to using the total amount to evaluate the long-term investment value of a project, which is fine. But using the total amount to estimate Usual is obviously a major mistake.
Why❓——Because the release of usual is not linearly released according to time, it is supplied and destroyed according to TVL, and TVL determines the fundamental income of the protocol. If TVL increases, usual will be released, and if TVL decreases, it will be destroyed instead. Therefore, it is obviously absurd to use total supply for valuation, but only based on current TVL (income)!
Reasons: 1. Pre-market trading ~ Binance purchase restrictions, which temporarily prevented institutions and large investors from making large-scale investments
2. The vast majority (99.9%) of investors did not read its white paper carefully, resulting in fatal misjudgments in market value and valuation.
We know that the maximum supply of Usual is 4b. Many cautious investors are used to using the total amount to evaluate the long-term investment value of a project, which is fine. But using the total amount to estimate Usual is obviously a major mistake.
Why❓——Because the release of usual is not linearly released according to time, it is supplied and destroyed according to TVL, and TVL determines the fundamental income of the protocol. If TVL increases, usual will be released, and if TVL decreases, it will be destroyed instead. Therefore, it is obviously absurd to use total supply for valuation, but only based on current TVL (income)!
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🔥🔥I think usual is seriously undervalued.——The rising flywheel is about to start, and the extremely high APY will lead to explosive growth in TVL, with an expected increase of 200% in TVL over the next 8 weeks, approaching or even exceeding 2 billion. At that time, the yield from government bonds alone could reach 100 million dollars, with a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio being 2 billion. Based on a circulating supply of 600 million, the reasonable coin price should be above 3 dollars. #USUAL
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New three-door problem
I will publish a "New Three Questions" and ask experts to answer your questions.
There are three doors, and there is 5 million behind one of them. You can get it after selecting it. Suppose you and Xiao Ming each choose a door. You choose A and Xiao Ming chooses C. At this time, the system opens B, and the result shows that door B did not win the prize. Now the question comes - if they are interchangeable, are you willing to exchange choices with Xiao Ming? Why ❓ - One explanation is that it is not necessary, because the probability of winning the prize for the remaining two doors is 1/2. One explanation is that it should be changed. Suppose you choose A at first and the probability of winning is 1/3. The other two doors BC combined have a winning probability of 2/3. If the system opens door B and it is an empty door, then the probability of C is 2/3. Yes, it should be replaced. But what if you are Xiao Ming? From Xiao Ming's point of view, the probability of AB is also 2/3. Since B is an empty goal, the probability of A is also 2/3 and should be changed. Should I change it? I'm so worried.
There are three doors, and there is 5 million behind one of them. You can get it after selecting it. Suppose you and Xiao Ming each choose a door. You choose A and Xiao Ming chooses C. At this time, the system opens B, and the result shows that door B did not win the prize. Now the question comes - if they are interchangeable, are you willing to exchange choices with Xiao Ming? Why ❓ - One explanation is that it is not necessary, because the probability of winning the prize for the remaining two doors is 1/2. One explanation is that it should be changed. Suppose you choose A at first and the probability of winning is 1/3. The other two doors BC combined have a winning probability of 2/3. If the system opens door B and it is an empty door, then the probability of C is 2/3. Yes, it should be replaced. But what if you are Xiao Ming? From Xiao Ming's point of view, the probability of AB is also 2/3. Since B is an empty goal, the probability of A is also 2/3 and should be changed. Should I change it? I'm so worried.
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About ETH, L1, and L2
Try to imagine the market demand ten years from now. It may be easier for us to grasp the dormant dark horses now! Ten years later, population aging has become the situation in many countries, blockchain technology has become widely popularized, Web3 has become the Internet of the new era, and digital currency has become the mainstream of daily payments.
The technology that solves the aging population is artificial intelligence. This is also an industry that I was strongly optimistic about two or three years ago.
There is a high probability that ETH will quickly lose the competition in the future. Technology is changing with each passing day. Due to technological innovation, the performance of APT, SUI, SEI, etc. has been improved exponentially. It is not ruled out that the market value will surpass ETH in the future.
The technology that solves the aging population is artificial intelligence. This is also an industry that I was strongly optimistic about two or three years ago.
There is a high probability that ETH will quickly lose the competition in the future. Technology is changing with each passing day. Due to technological innovation, the performance of APT, SUI, SEI, etc. has been improved exponentially. It is not ruled out that the market value will surpass ETH in the future.
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"The Way of Trading" - Fatal Psychology
1. Eager for success
When I was 20 years old, I often imagined that if I couldn't achieve anything before I turned 30, I might as well just jump off the building. In fact, I was still very poor when I was 30 years old.
In our 20s, we are ignorant and presumptuous, young and frivolous, with high ambitions but low ambitions. We are full of vigorous fighting spirit and soaring dreams. This is a good thing. It makes us fearless and dare to think and do. But if you are in the financial market, you are destined to experience a baptism of hardships!
The more people are short of money, the more they want to make money faster, and financial markets generally provide leverage. Objectively speaking, leverage can indeed be a small gain, but 99% of investors cannot make reasonable use of it.
When I was 20 years old, I often imagined that if I couldn't achieve anything before I turned 30, I might as well just jump off the building. In fact, I was still very poor when I was 30 years old.
In our 20s, we are ignorant and presumptuous, young and frivolous, with high ambitions but low ambitions. We are full of vigorous fighting spirit and soaring dreams. This is a good thing. It makes us fearless and dare to think and do. But if you are in the financial market, you are destined to experience a baptism of hardships!
The more people are short of money, the more they want to make money faster, and financial markets generally provide leverage. Objectively speaking, leverage can indeed be a small gain, but 99% of investors cannot make reasonable use of it.
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How to make easy money in the financial market
——Tao to simplicity! It is so easy to make money in the financial market, but the reality is that 90% of investors lose money.
(There are many pitfalls that lead to losses, and I will sort them out one by one in the next article.) This article simply shares a way to make money easily.
【Large cycle strategy】
The so-called big cycle strategy is to make investment decisions based on the economic (monetary) cycle.
for example,
(1) What time is it now? ——The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, currently 5% to 5.25%, the Federal Reserve raised the deposit interest rate from 0 to 5% in just over a year, so we have seen depressed prices for many projects.
(There are many pitfalls that lead to losses, and I will sort them out one by one in the next article.) This article simply shares a way to make money easily.
【Large cycle strategy】
The so-called big cycle strategy is to make investment decisions based on the economic (monetary) cycle.
for example,
(1) What time is it now? ——The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, currently 5% to 5.25%, the Federal Reserve raised the deposit interest rate from 0 to 5% in just over a year, so we have seen depressed prices for many projects.
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Kelly's formula (position management artifact)
The Kelly formula was proposed by John R. Kelly, Jr. in 1956. It indicates the optimal proportion of bets that should be made each period in a recurring gamble or investment with a positive expected return. Kelly's formula has long been famous in "Las Vegas" and "Wall Street". Many mathematical geniuses have developed it in casinos and investments and have achieved extraordinary results. The most famous among them is probably Dr. Edward Thorp, who developed a strategy for defeating Blackjack (21 points) and used the proportion calculated by Kelly's formula to make bets (Thorp 1962); after playing in the casino, Dr. Thorp used it in His talents in statistics and probability theory are used in investment. The PNP hedge fund he founded has achieved annual returns of more than 20% in the past 30 years (Thorp 2017).