鸡丝哥
Web3营销专家，资深加密交易员，16年入圈，主要分享日常投资交易心得，MeMecoin爱好者，Top10交易所品牌营销负责人，孙宇晨前品牌负责人。
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Mouth-rubbing is dead, this time for real.
Early December, X's official team clearly required all InfoFi platforms to stop using APIs for incentive rankings. This isn't a shift in trend—it's a platform-level rejection. Kaito subsequently chose to transition from InfoFi to a KOL Agency, essentially admitting the original model no longer works.
The valuation logic must change accordingly. A KOL Agency is a classic cash-flow business: labor-intensive, weak scalability, no network effects—valuation can only be based on revenue and profit. Even under extremely optimistic assumptions, a reasonable FDV is closer to $100 million rather than $500 million.
Looking at the token structure: total supply is 1 billion, with approximately 298 million currently circulating, leaving 70% unissued. Against the backdrop of a collapsed core narrative, weakened token demand, and the team in transition, this outstanding supply more resembles potential selling pressure rather than 'future ecosystem'.
Assuming a $100 million FDV, the long-term fair price for $KAITO should hover around $0.10. As long as it remains an Agency model and not recognized infrastructure by the platform, the price will ultimately revert to cash-flow-based valuation.
Mouth-rubbing is over; it's time to recalculate the story with Excel.
By the way, does this mean Binance Square has finally captured this wave of traffic? 🧐💸
Early December, X's official team clearly required all InfoFi platforms to stop using APIs for incentive rankings. This isn't a shift in trend—it's a platform-level rejection. Kaito subsequently chose to transition from InfoFi to a KOL Agency, essentially admitting the original model no longer works.
The valuation logic must change accordingly. A KOL Agency is a classic cash-flow business: labor-intensive, weak scalability, no network effects—valuation can only be based on revenue and profit. Even under extremely optimistic assumptions, a reasonable FDV is closer to $100 million rather than $500 million.
Looking at the token structure: total supply is 1 billion, with approximately 298 million currently circulating, leaving 70% unissued. Against the backdrop of a collapsed core narrative, weakened token demand, and the team in transition, this outstanding supply more resembles potential selling pressure rather than 'future ecosystem'.
Assuming a $100 million FDV, the long-term fair price for $KAITO should hover around $0.10. As long as it remains an Agency model and not recognized infrastructure by the platform, the price will ultimately revert to cash-flow-based valuation.
Mouth-rubbing is over; it's time to recalculate the story with Excel.
By the way, does this mean Binance Square has finally captured this wave of traffic? 🧐💸
In every bull run, memecoins always return to the center stage. Not because of technology, but because of emotion + culture + consensus.
Memecoins are essentially amplifiers of emotion. They have low ignition costs, spread rapidly, feature transparent on-chain tokens, and possess decentralized consensus. Once a culture forms, it's hard to suppress with 'rationality'.
Simply put: memecoins are one of the eternal narratives in the crypto world. They are a blend of culture, art, community, as well as human nature, speculation, and Ponzi-like dynamics. They expose the hypocrisy of centralized finance—the illusion that only a few can win.
There are many ways to redistribute wealth, but memecoins are undoubtedly the most contagious and fascinating one.
How to participate? Ignore noise, focus only on leaders. On each blockchain, trade only the top meme coins. On BSC, the leading Chinese meme coin is $BinanceLife. Across the entire market, $PEPE remains the undisputed memecoin icon.
Looking ahead to 2026: junk altcoins will be proven false by time, and capital may flow back into memecoins with genuine cultural consensus.
My simple prediction: $PEPE returning to all-time highs is not crazy. 🐸
Memecoins are essentially amplifiers of emotion. They have low ignition costs, spread rapidly, feature transparent on-chain tokens, and possess decentralized consensus. Once a culture forms, it's hard to suppress with 'rationality'.
Simply put: memecoins are one of the eternal narratives in the crypto world. They are a blend of culture, art, community, as well as human nature, speculation, and Ponzi-like dynamics. They expose the hypocrisy of centralized finance—the illusion that only a few can win.
There are many ways to redistribute wealth, but memecoins are undoubtedly the most contagious and fascinating one.
How to participate? Ignore noise, focus only on leaders. On each blockchain, trade only the top meme coins. On BSC, the leading Chinese meme coin is $BinanceLife. Across the entire market, $PEPE remains the undisputed memecoin icon.
Looking ahead to 2026: junk altcoins will be proven false by time, and capital may flow back into memecoins with genuine cultural consensus.
My simple prediction: $PEPE returning to all-time highs is not crazy. 🐸
2026 AI begins to roll out pricing!
ChatGPT Pro: Free for 1 month
Gemini Pro: Annual subscription 50% off
This kind of node,
it's not a question of whether it's good or not,
it's about whether it's worth taking a position first.
It's all worth a shot!
ChatGPT Pro: Free for 1 month
Gemini Pro: Annual subscription 50% off
This kind of node,
it's not a question of whether it's good or not,
it's about whether it's worth taking a position first.
It's all worth a shot!
Include $BNB $UNI hype aster as an indicator for buying in the bear market.
The core narrative of Bitcoin is to combat the inflation and devaluation of fiat currency. However, I increasingly feel that the crypto market itself is creating another, more terrifying "inflation."
In my view, altcoins that do not implement a "buyback + burn" deflationary mechanism are not healthy. Simply buybacks or staking dividends are just the project team playing word games.
The core narrative of Bitcoin is to combat the inflation and devaluation of fiat currency. However, I increasingly feel that the crypto market itself is creating another, more terrifying "inflation."
In my view, altcoins that do not implement a "buyback + burn" deflationary mechanism are not healthy. Simply buybacks or staking dividends are just the project team playing word games.
As the year comes to an end, looking back at the 4 predictions made at the beginning of the year, 3 out of 4! In fact, the points I discussed with friends on WeChat were more accurate! $BTC price is between 70,000 and 120,000
Looking back at the market update from March last year, let me share my market predictions for 2025:
1️⃣ The Federal Reserve will cautiously lower interest rates, and high rates will be maintained until the end of the year;
2️⃣ The Chinese Yuan will continue to depreciate, and the exchange rate will reach 7.5-7.7;
3️⃣ Bitcoin will not exceed $150,000, nor will it fall below $70,000;
4️⃣ One or two of the Top 10 exchanges may experience a major crash or a black swan event.
1️⃣ The Federal Reserve will cautiously lower interest rates, and high rates will be maintained until the end of the year;
2️⃣ The Chinese Yuan will continue to depreciate, and the exchange rate will reach 7.5-7.7;
3️⃣ Bitcoin will not exceed $150,000, nor will it fall below $70,000;
4️⃣ One or two of the Top 10 exchanges may experience a major crash or a black swan event.
Looking back at the market update from March last year, let me share my market predictions for 2025:
1️⃣ The Federal Reserve will cautiously lower interest rates, and high rates will be maintained until the end of the year;
2️⃣ The Chinese Yuan will continue to depreciate, and the exchange rate will reach 7.5-7.7;
3️⃣ Bitcoin will not exceed $150,000, nor will it fall below $70,000;
4️⃣ One or two of the Top 10 exchanges may experience a major crash or a black swan event.
1️⃣ The Federal Reserve will cautiously lower interest rates, and high rates will be maintained until the end of the year;
2️⃣ The Chinese Yuan will continue to depreciate, and the exchange rate will reach 7.5-7.7;
3️⃣ Bitcoin will not exceed $150,000, nor will it fall below $70,000;
4️⃣ One or two of the Top 10 exchanges may experience a major crash or a black swan event.
In recent years, I have always had a question: I have seen many technical line-drawing people on Twitter and Weibo, and they are really accurate in determining the ups and downs. I feel that if I follow their accuracy, 10,000 U can become 1 million U in less than 3 months, no problem.
So, my question is: Is this true? Are they all financially free? From this perspective, as long as you have strong skills, everyone in the crypto market is a billionaire?
So, my question is: Is this true? Are they all financially free? From this perspective, as long as you have strong skills, everyone in the crypto market is a billionaire?
Quick review of#cryptomarket on January 25th:
Today’s key summary is Arthur Hayes’s views on the market
1️⃣ He expects $BTC to form support at 30,000-35,000, possibly in March;
2️⃣ He will buy Bitcoin at the bottom below 35,000 and buy $SOL and bonk
3️⃣ I am going to buy $BONK when Bitcoin reaches 38000 again
Today’s key summary is Arthur Hayes’s views on the market
1️⃣ He expects $BTC to form support at 30,000-35,000, possibly in March;
2️⃣ He will buy Bitcoin at the bottom below 35,000 and buy $SOL and bonk
3️⃣ I am going to buy $BONK when Bitcoin reaches 38000 again
Quick review of $BTC market on January 24:
1️⃣ Yesterday, Bitcoin once fell to 38,500. I saw that many bloggers began to bet on 35K, 32K, and below 30K. When it was 48,000, few saw 38,000. It is important to stick to your own strategy;
2️⃣ It is a small rebound now. If it is good, it can see 42,000. If it continues to fall later, it will be difficult to fall below 35,000 in the short term. There may be a complex and volatile market for 1-2 months;
3️⃣ With this year’s election and the expectation of an economic downturn, the Federal Reserve will inevitably cut interest rates, which is good for Bitcoin. However, the US stock market is at a high level. If there is a plunge, it will be another thunder;
4️⃣ Let me talk about my own strategy, spot currency holding + spot grid, I only bought a small part of Bitcoin this year, I bought#memecoinwith reference to the decline of Bitcoin, and sold at the right time;
1️⃣ Yesterday, Bitcoin once fell to 38,500. I saw that many bloggers began to bet on 35K, 32K, and below 30K. When it was 48,000, few saw 38,000. It is important to stick to your own strategy;
2️⃣ It is a small rebound now. If it is good, it can see 42,000. If it continues to fall later, it will be difficult to fall below 35,000 in the short term. There may be a complex and volatile market for 1-2 months;
3️⃣ With this year’s election and the expectation of an economic downturn, the Federal Reserve will inevitably cut interest rates, which is good for Bitcoin. However, the US stock market is at a high level. If there is a plunge, it will be another thunder;
4️⃣ Let me talk about my own strategy, spot currency holding + spot grid, I only bought a small part of Bitcoin this year, I bought#memecoinwith reference to the decline of Bitcoin, and sold at the right time;
January 23 #crypto Quick market review
There are 83 days until Bitcoin halving!
1️⃣ As predicted one month ago, $BTC fell below 40,000, but the US stock market did not fall, so it is not expected to fall too much, 36K-38K is about the same;
2️⃣ There may be a small rebound in the short term. Based on the fact that FTX has sold $1 billion of Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, it is also not recommended to go long in the contract;
3️⃣ The trading logic of BTC is that assets with high correlation to the US stock index coexist with risky assets, so if the US stock market has a major correction, Bitcoin will not be immune, and 36K may not be the lowest point this year;
There are 83 days until Bitcoin halving!
1️⃣ As predicted one month ago, $BTC fell below 40,000, but the US stock market did not fall, so it is not expected to fall too much, 36K-38K is about the same;
2️⃣ There may be a small rebound in the short term. Based on the fact that FTX has sold $1 billion of Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, it is also not recommended to go long in the contract;
3️⃣ The trading logic of BTC is that assets with high correlation to the US stock index coexist with risky assets, so if the US stock market has a major correction, Bitcoin will not be immune, and 36K may not be the lowest point this year;
New week, January 22nd #crypto Quick market review:
1️⃣ The halving is getting closer, but the main force of $BTC seems to be still waiting and watching. Let’s pay attention to Grayscale’s selling data. It seems that when Grayscale’s sales are almost the same, funds will have the motivation to speculate;
2️⃣ The meme currency has experienced a bigger correction. Currently, the position is losing money. The meme currency fluctuates greatly, so it is not suitable for adding leverage;
3️⃣ The most promising meme coins this year: $DOGE $ORDI I will buy on dips and expect the high prices to be shared in the future;
1️⃣ The halving is getting closer, but the main force of $BTC seems to be still waiting and watching. Let’s pay attention to Grayscale’s selling data. It seems that when Grayscale’s sales are almost the same, funds will have the motivation to speculate;
2️⃣ The meme currency has experienced a bigger correction. Currently, the position is losing money. The meme currency fluctuates greatly, so it is not suitable for adding leverage;
3️⃣ The most promising meme coins this year: $DOGE $ORDI I will buy on dips and expect the high prices to be shared in the future;
GM! 1.21 $BTC market quick review🤑🤑
Bitcoin is currently at a critical position, will it fluctuate or fall? There will be answers next week.
1️⃣ Shock: 40k-44k, will last until February;
2️⃣ Fall: If it falls below 40K, it will go to 38K and 36K to find support;
Conclusion: Don’t go long on the contract.
Bitcoin is currently at a critical position, will it fluctuate or fall? There will be answers next week.
1️⃣ Shock: 40k-44k, will last until February;
2️⃣ Fall: If it falls below 40K, it will go to 38K and 36K to find support;
Conclusion: Don’t go long on the contract.
GM! 1.20 #Crypto Quick market review🤑🤑
There are 94 days until the $BTC halving;
1️⃣ Bitcoin is 48K away from this round’s high and has dropped by 8,000 US dollars. There are two main reasons: first, Grayscale sells 10,000 BTC at the opening of each trading day, triggering panic, and large players on the chain also sell; second, macro The interest rate cut is expected to be postponed, the US dollar is strengthening, and funds are waiting to see;
2️⃣ At present, I still maintain my previous view of 38k-43k shock. Being bullish in 2024 does not mean that the midfield will not plummet. This year, it is possible to reach 32k-35k;
3️⃣ In the long run, Bitcoin is still a good way to store value. It cannot replace gold, but it can be used as a supplement. When it reaches a certain high level, the volatility of Bitcoin will become smaller and smaller, becoming a hard currency;
There are 94 days until the $BTC halving;
1️⃣ Bitcoin is 48K away from this round’s high and has dropped by 8,000 US dollars. There are two main reasons: first, Grayscale sells 10,000 BTC at the opening of each trading day, triggering panic, and large players on the chain also sell; second, macro The interest rate cut is expected to be postponed, the US dollar is strengthening, and funds are waiting to see;
2️⃣ At present, I still maintain my previous view of 38k-43k shock. Being bullish in 2024 does not mean that the midfield will not plummet. This year, it is possible to reach 32k-35k;
3️⃣ In the long run, Bitcoin is still a good way to store value. It cannot replace gold, but it can be used as a supplement. When it reaches a certain high level, the volatility of Bitcoin will become smaller and smaller, becoming a hard currency;
1.19 #crypto Quick market review, 93 days until Bitcoin halving🤑🤑
1️⃣ $BTC fell back to 40,000, Grayscale continued to sell GBTC, and continued to look forward to seeing a big pie starting with 3, 38k-43k, and it is estimated that it will fluctuate for 2 months;
2️⃣ I see many big Vs think that 43K-38K is 5,000 dollars, so don’t worry about this price difference. For those who only buy Bitcoin spot, fixed investment is the best strategy. Just start buying every day now;
3️⃣ $BTC and $ETH have a correction of 1%, and other currencies, especially memecoin, may fall by 20% or even 50%. As a meme player, paying attention to the short-term market trend is also a necessary skill;
1️⃣ $BTC fell back to 40,000, Grayscale continued to sell GBTC, and continued to look forward to seeing a big pie starting with 3, 38k-43k, and it is estimated that it will fluctuate for 2 months;
2️⃣ I see many big Vs think that 43K-38K is 5,000 dollars, so don’t worry about this price difference. For those who only buy Bitcoin spot, fixed investment is the best strategy. Just start buying every day now;
3️⃣ $BTC and $ETH have a correction of 1%, and other currencies, especially memecoin, may fall by 20% or even 50%. As a meme player, paying attention to the short-term market trend is also a necessary skill;
1.18 #Crypto Quick Market Review
1️⃣ Old and American data exceeded expectations, and the probability of an interest rate cut in March dropped to 50%. Grayscale continues to sell GBTC, and $BTC is likely to maintain a volatile correction;
2️⃣ If the price of Bitcoin remains around 40,000 and Grayscale’s selling pressure is absorbed, the negative will turn into positive, and a plunge in the market is unlikely;
3️⃣ Optimistically, it fluctuates between 38K and 43K and trades sideways for 2 months. Time is exchanged for space. During this period, altcoins in various sectors will have the opportunity to speculate on the market;
1️⃣ Old and American data exceeded expectations, and the probability of an interest rate cut in March dropped to 50%. Grayscale continues to sell GBTC, and $BTC is likely to maintain a volatile correction;
2️⃣ If the price of Bitcoin remains around 40,000 and Grayscale’s selling pressure is absorbed, the negative will turn into positive, and a plunge in the market is unlikely;
3️⃣ Optimistically, it fluctuates between 38K and 43K and trades sideways for 2 months. Time is exchanged for space. During this period, altcoins in various sectors will have the opportunity to speculate on the market;
1.17 #Crypto Market quick review #TradeNTell
1️⃣ When the US stock market opened last night, Grayscale hit 9,000 $BTC , but the price soon pulled back to 43,000. There seems to be an upward trend. We will wait until it reaches the 30-day line;
2️⃣ $ETH The copycat season is here. I bought ox yesterday and it rose 25%. I didn’t buy zuzalu when it was 0.045 and it rose 6 times in one day🤑🤑
3️⃣#Memecoins It seems that you have to get in the car first and then study it after being covered 😂
1️⃣ When the US stock market opened last night, Grayscale hit 9,000 $BTC , but the price soon pulled back to 43,000. There seems to be an upward trend. We will wait until it reaches the 30-day line;
2️⃣ $ETH The copycat season is here. I bought ox yesterday and it rose 25%. I didn’t buy zuzalu when it was 0.045 and it rose 6 times in one day🤑🤑
3️⃣#Memecoins It seems that you have to get in the car first and then study it after being covered 😂
1.16 #Crypto Quick market review:
1️⃣$BTC is about to be halved in about 100 days. The agency predicts that the mining cost price will be US$37,800 after the halving. However, there will not be a direct bullish trend after the halving, and it may even fall;
2️⃣If it is predicted that the high point of $BTC in this round of bull market is 12W-15W, with a 3-4 times increase, $ETH is estimated to have a 5-6 times increase; the bull market is weaker than the previous one, but there is no problem in outperforming traditional assets. ;
3️⃣ The current price rebound is weak, non-farm payrolls and#CPIare not conducive to interest rate cuts, a sharp correction is an opportunity, and hoarding coins on dips is the best strategy;
1️⃣$BTC is about to be halved in about 100 days. The agency predicts that the mining cost price will be US$37,800 after the halving. However, there will not be a direct bullish trend after the halving, and it may even fall;
2️⃣If it is predicted that the high point of $BTC in this round of bull market is 12W-15W, with a 3-4 times increase, $ETH is estimated to have a 5-6 times increase; the bull market is weaker than the previous one, but there is no problem in outperforming traditional assets. ;
3️⃣ The current price rebound is weak, non-farm payrolls and#CPIare not conducive to interest rate cuts, a sharp correction is an opportunity, and hoarding coins on dips is the best strategy;
1.15 #crypto Quick market review:
1️⃣ $BTC continued to trade sideways after falling below the 30-day moving average this time. $ETH made up for the increase but did not pull up BTC. I reiterate that the prefix 3 is definitely coming, 38K or 36K, wait and see;
2️⃣Grayscale sale #GBTC was redeemed by the person who held it a few years ago, and the market maker must sell the share, so the currency selling will continue until GBTC is almost sold, and it is estimated that $BTC will bottom out in the short term.
1️⃣ $BTC continued to trade sideways after falling below the 30-day moving average this time. $ETH made up for the increase but did not pull up BTC. I reiterate that the prefix 3 is definitely coming, 38K or 36K, wait and see;
2️⃣Grayscale sale #GBTC was redeemed by the person who held it a few years ago, and the market maker must sell the share, so the currency selling will continue until GBTC is almost sold, and it is estimated that $BTC will bottom out in the short term.
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