The U.S. ADP employment data, known as the "small non-farm", was officially released last night. The report showed that the number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 99,000 in August, far below the expected 145,000, setting the lowest figure since January 2021.
　
At the same time, ADP's July employment data was revised down from 122,000 to 111,000. The latest ADP employment data provided the Federal Reserve with sufficient evidence of the slowdown in labor demand. Federal Reserve officials also frankly stated that they are more worried about the risks in the labor market than inflation. Due to the cooling of the labor market, the market is almost 100% certain that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at this month's FOMC meeting, and believes that the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 43%.

After Bitcoin fell to $55,555 earlier yesterday, it started to rise around 10 o'clock last night, reaching a high of around $58,500 around 00:30. During the Asian session today, it fluctuated and fell all the way. As of the time of writing, the price was $57,069, down 0.67% in the past 24 hours. The non-agricultural employment data for August will be released tomorrow night, so beware of the drastic fluctuations caused by the data.

Bitcoin four-hour chart
　
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price is running between the middle and lower tracks. This situation shows that the trend of Bitcoin is in a relatively balanced or weak short market in the short and medium term. The price has gradually rebounded from the lower track to the middle track, and the Bollinger Band has not expanded significantly, which means that the market volatility is not large, and the market is currently in a relatively volatile state.

In August 2024, global Bitcoin miners ushered in the most challenging month of 2024. The total income of Bitcoin miners in August fell to US$851.36 million, a new low this year, a decrease of US$99.75 million from July, showing The pressure on miners continues to increase. With Bitcoin miner earnings hitting a new low in August, the market has become more cautious about the outlook for the coming months. Although the global crypto market continues to develop and technological innovation continues, Bitcoin price volatility, reduced online transaction activity, and increasing market competition , still brings significant pressure to miners.

The U.S. Department of Commerce released the July personal consumption expenditure index on Friday night, which increased by 2.5% year-on-year, the same as in June, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.6%, and increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Although it increased slightly from June, it was still in line with expectations. The data showed that the growth rate of U.S. inflation continued to slow down and consumer spending remained strong.
　
Last week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that "the time has come" to adjust policy, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts depend on the next data, the changing outlook and the balance of risks. As Friday's data showed that inflation continued to be controlled, the market's message that the Fed would cut interest rates by at least 1 basis point in September has increased.

Since Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,000 in March this year, it has always lacked upward momentum. The repeated market declines have gradually dampened investors' enthusiasm, making people doubt whether Bitcoin still has hope of ushering in a new round of explosion.
　
In this regard, Daxian believes that in the context of the US Federal Reserve having already loosened its stance and most likely starting to cut interest rates in September, any current pullbacks in the US stock market and cryptocurrency market will be short-lived. Powell's recent remarks have been relatively dovish, and he has made it clear that now is the time to cut interest rates. Although there are only three interest rate decisions left this year, the market currently believes that there will still be four interest rate cuts in 2024. As Powell and the Federal Reserve start the rate cut cycle, the increase in global liquidity will ultimately push up risk assets, with cryptocurrencies bearing the brunt.

After Bitcoin broke through $65,000 at 7 a.m. on Monday, selling pressure emerged and it continued to fluctuate downward. As of the time of writing, it fell below the second profit-taking point of $62,300 given by the Great Master in yesterday's article, and fell 3.18% in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum's trend is similar to that of Bitcoin. It also showed a volatile decline yesterday. As of the time of writing, the price was US$2,638, down 3.33% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin four-hour chart
　
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price is running below the lower track of the Bollinger Band, indicating that the current downward pressure is relatively large, and it may continue to test the lower track support downward. The opening of the upper and lower tracks of the Bollinger Band is expanding, indicating that the subsequent market volatility will increase.

After U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole Economic Forum at 10 p.m. Beijing time on Friday that the time was ripe for a rate cut, the crypto market immediately ushered in a new wave of gains. The price of Bitcoin rose all the way from the low of $60,691 before Powell's speech to a high of $65,000. As of the time of writing, it was quoted at $63,948, up 4.98% in the past 48 hours.
　
Ethereum's trend is similar to that of Bitcoin. Its price has continued to rise from the low of $2,646.82 before Powell's speech, reaching a high of $2,820. As of the time of writing, it was quoted at $2,745, up 3.98% in the past 48 hours.

Bitcoin once climbed to $61,419 yesterday afternoon, but buying failed to sustain the rise and it plunged rapidly around 10 p.m., falling below the $60,000 mark again. It hit a low of $58,541 around midnight and was quoted at $59,403 as of writing time, down 1.89% in the past 24 hours, with all gains made during the day yesterday having been given back.

To make matters worse, the Mt.Gox address transferred 12,000 BTC worth approximately US$707 million to a new address at around 8 o'clock this morning. This transfer is likely to be for repayment, which may bring selling pressure to the market again.

Bitcoin's performance has been relatively weak recently, falling more than 20% since it hit an all-time high of $73,000 in March this year. However, most investors have not been discouraged and have continued to hold Bitcoin firmly. Since most investors entered the market at high points, more than 80% of short-term Bitcoin holders are currently at a loss. Once a panic sell-off breaks out in the market, short-term holders may cut their losses and the price of Bitcoin may fall further.
　
There are several key issues to watch out for this week. The minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on Wednesday. The meeting may provide more signals on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September. If the minutes are dovish, it will strengthen the expectation of a September rate cut. At 10 pm on Friday (23rd), Powell will attend the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting and deliver a keynote speech on the economic outlook. It happens to be a critical moment before the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, so the monetary policy information he releases has attracted much attention.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced last night that the producer price index (PPI) for July 2024 showed a monthly increase of 0.1%, the lowest since May and lower than the market expectation of 0.2%. The annual growth rate also dropped from 2.7% in June to 2.2%, the lowest since March and also lower than the market expectation of 2.3%. This shows that the price pressure in the United States continues to ease, which has encouraged all four major U.S. stock indexes to rise.
　
Bitcoin continued to fluctuate upward after the release of PPI data last night. After breaking through the $60,000 mark, perhaps due to short squeeze, it quickly climbed to the $61,575 level. As of the time of writing, it has slightly adjusted back to $61,045, up 1.91% in the past 24 hours.

The United States will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) tonight at 20:30 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow. The market is closely watching these inflation indicators to confirm that inflation is moving further in the right direction, especially when people generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. If PPI and CPI continue to rise, it means that inflationary pressure is increasing, and the Federal Reserve may maintain or raise interest rates to curb inflation. If PPI and CPI fall, it means that inflationary pressure is easing, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth.
　
The price of Bitcoin experienced a sharp fluctuation around 10 o'clock last night, falling rapidly below $58,000, and then quickly breaking through the 60,000 mark within an hour. Unfortunately, it failed to hold steady, and selling pressure emerged. The price of Bitcoin fell back below $59,000. As of the time of writing, the price was $58,984, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours.

To summarize the reasons for yesterday’s crash:

1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell by 40 basis points, oil prices plummeted, and the stock market continued to fall. The VIX index, which symbolizes the degree of market panic, rose by 25% on Friday. The VIX index reflects the market's concerns about the future stock market. Investors usually regard the VIX index as a reverse indicator.

2. ETF spot funds outflow, Bitcoin's net outflow reached US$237 million on Friday, while Ethereum's fund flow remained neutral.

3. In the U.S. presidential election, Harris’ support rate in the polls has risen above Trump, which is extremely unfavorable to the crypto market. Although the Democratic Party is less hostile to cryptocurrencies, the overall stock market and crypto market are more inclined to support Trump.