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Irresponsible vague feeling is repeating last year's history.
Last year, February and March were a small peak for copycats, and then the second quarter was the blood sucking of Bitcoin. This year, it may be ETH.
Last year, the third quarter was a downward trend, and this year, interest rates have started to be cut or will be cut soon. The decline at the beginning of the interest rate cut is expected.
Last year, the fourth quarter was hyped ETF, and this year it may be replaced by ETH ETF.
Last year, February and March were a small peak for copycats, and then the second quarter was the blood sucking of Bitcoin. This year, it may be ETH.
Last year, the third quarter was a downward trend, and this year, interest rates have started to be cut or will be cut soon. The decline at the beginning of the interest rate cut is expected.
Last year, the fourth quarter was hyped ETF, and this year it may be replaced by ETH ETF.
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[2000-word interpretation] IoTeX, a Depin project that is not Depin, what is the difference between it and other Depins?
Yes, you read that right. As a Depin project, IoTeX itself is not a Depin.
➤ Let’s start with Depin
Depin is a relatively new concept. So, what is Depin?
Depin——Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network, decentralized physical infrastructure network.
The public chain is the most common Depin, which consists of many decentralized nodes (called miners on the POW network and validators on the POS network), thus forming the physical infrastructure of the network.
Decentralized storage is the second common type of Depin, where storage nodes perform storage tasks, thus forming a physical infrastructure network for decentralized storage.
➤ Let’s start with Depin
Depin is a relatively new concept. So, what is Depin?
Depin——Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network, decentralized physical infrastructure network.
The public chain is the most common Depin, which consists of many decentralized nodes (called miners on the POW network and validators on the POS network), thus forming the physical infrastructure of the network.
Decentralized storage is the second common type of Depin, where storage nodes perform storage tasks, thus forming a physical infrastructure network for decentralized storage.
See original
#Ethereum
2017 bull theme - Ethereum ERC20 coin issuance.
2019 bull theme - Binance IEO, Chinese leaders call for blockchain development, Facebook stablecoin Libra white paper released.
2021 bull theme - Ethereum-led Defi ecosystem, metaverse concept.
2024 theme - Bitcoin ETF, BTCLayer2, MEME, etc.
Question 1: Can it be understood as "Ethereum will not be absent from the bull"?
Question 2: 2024 is sandwiched between the historical bull and bull years, so do you think 2024 is a bull or a bull?
Question 3: If after a period of interest rate cuts, cryptocurrencies usher in a bull in 2025 or 2026, what theme do you think Ethereum can bring?
2017 bull theme - Ethereum ERC20 coin issuance.
2019 bull theme - Binance IEO, Chinese leaders call for blockchain development, Facebook stablecoin Libra white paper released.
2021 bull theme - Ethereum-led Defi ecosystem, metaverse concept.
2024 theme - Bitcoin ETF, BTCLayer2, MEME, etc.
Question 1: Can it be understood as "Ethereum will not be absent from the bull"?
Question 2: 2024 is sandwiched between the historical bull and bull years, so do you think 2024 is a bull or a bull?
Question 3: If after a period of interest rate cuts, cryptocurrencies usher in a bull in 2025 or 2026, what theme do you think Ethereum can bring?
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The annual growth rate of the US core PCE price index in May hit a new low since March 2021. Although the data is just that, the impact on market sentiment is positive.
LIVETVBee
--
[Data] May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a turnaround.
➤Reason 1: US stocks
From 2013 to 2023, the probability of the S&P rising in July is over 90.31% (only in 2014). The probability of the Nasdaq rising in July during this period is 100%.
Combining the S&P and the Nasdaq, July is the best performance period for US stocks in history.
The US economy and life do have an annual cycle. The tax season ends in May, and people will receive tax refunds from April to June, so May to August are relatively prosperous months for consumption. American movies also start a concentrated summer season at the end of May.
There are two explanations for the impact on the stock market. On the one hand, speculators took cash from the stock market for consumption in May and June, and returned in July. On the other hand, consumption during this period will also affect the real economy and be reflected in company financial reports.
➤Reason 2: July reversal
First, in July, the probability of the big cake rising is 63.64%.
Second, July may be due to the mid-year reason. We can see that July is the month with the highest probability of reversal relative to the previous month.
Third, the two times that there was no reversal from June to July were 2015 and 2017, both of which rose continuously.
In other words, BTC has never had a history of falling for two consecutive months from June to July.
Of course, there are only eleven or twelve years of samples, and the persuasiveness of the data is relatively limited.
➤ Reason three: Fed policy vacuum period
The Fed FOMC meeting is held about every 6 weeks. Therefore, some months will be skipped, forming a policy vacuum month.
The Fed will hold the next FOMC meeting on July 31, 2024, Eastern Time, and August 1, 2024, Beijing Time. Therefore, July this year is basically in a policy vacuum period.
After all, the current market is more sensitive to the Fed's policy, but during this vacuum period, the Fed has no monetary policy.
Of course, it is not ruled out that Powell or a certain official's speech will also affect the market, but this influence is smaller than the decision-making and formal speech of the FOMC meeting.
➤ Conclusion
Although each reason is not sufficient, when put together, the probability of a rebound in July will be greater.
In addition, pay attention to these three tables. In August and September, the performance of S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin was not good in history.
Brother Feng has suggested before that for profitable coins, you can consider looking for opportunities to reduce your positions in July, keep some bullets in your hand, and wait for the opportunity to buy the bottom later.
➤Reason 1: US stocks
From 2013 to 2023, the probability of the S&P rising in July is over 90.31% (only in 2014). The probability of the Nasdaq rising in July during this period is 100%.
Combining the S&P and the Nasdaq, July is the best performance period for US stocks in history.
The US economy and life do have an annual cycle. The tax season ends in May, and people will receive tax refunds from April to June, so May to August are relatively prosperous months for consumption. American movies also start a concentrated summer season at the end of May.
There are two explanations for the impact on the stock market. On the one hand, speculators took cash from the stock market for consumption in May and June, and returned in July. On the other hand, consumption during this period will also affect the real economy and be reflected in company financial reports.
➤Reason 2: July reversal
First, in July, the probability of the big cake rising is 63.64%.
Second, July may be due to the mid-year reason. We can see that July is the month with the highest probability of reversal relative to the previous month.
Third, the two times that there was no reversal from June to July were 2015 and 2017, both of which rose continuously.
In other words, BTC has never had a history of falling for two consecutive months from June to July.
Of course, there are only eleven or twelve years of samples, and the persuasiveness of the data is relatively limited.
➤ Reason three: Fed policy vacuum period
The Fed FOMC meeting is held about every 6 weeks. Therefore, some months will be skipped, forming a policy vacuum month.
The Fed will hold the next FOMC meeting on July 31, 2024, Eastern Time, and August 1, 2024, Beijing Time. Therefore, July this year is basically in a policy vacuum period.
After all, the current market is more sensitive to the Fed's policy, but during this vacuum period, the Fed has no monetary policy.
Of course, it is not ruled out that Powell or a certain official's speech will also affect the market, but this influence is smaller than the decision-making and formal speech of the FOMC meeting.
➤ Conclusion
Although each reason is not sufficient, when put together, the probability of a rebound in July will be greater.
In addition, pay attention to these three tables. In August and September, the performance of S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin was not good in history.
Brother Feng has suggested before that for profitable coins, you can consider looking for opportunities to reduce your positions in July, keep some bullets in your hand, and wait for the opportunity to buy the bottom later.
See original
Brothers, is it too late to short#blurnow?
#blastThis airdrop is so speechless...
Let's not talk about how much you gave. You made me watch the video for a long time. After I finally finished watching it, I had to download an app...
srcoll: You are an electronic beggar
ZK: You are a witch
L0: I will let you fight each other
Blast: I will make a fool of you today
Those who only play strk - winners in life
Those who play strk + these at the same time - hedged
Those who don't play strk but only play these...
Those who don't play anything - happy lying down
Fortunately, Brother Feng only transferred some coins to blast, and there was no interaction with other things. A little gas is used as dog feeding!
The era of airdrops may really be over...
#blastThis airdrop is so speechless...
Let's not talk about how much you gave. You made me watch the video for a long time. After I finally finished watching it, I had to download an app...
srcoll: You are an electronic beggar
ZK: You are a witch
L0: I will let you fight each other
Blast: I will make a fool of you today
Those who only play strk - winners in life
Those who play strk + these at the same time - hedged
Those who don't play strk but only play these...
Those who don't play anything - happy lying down
Fortunately, Brother Feng only transferred some coins to blast, and there was no interaction with other things. A little gas is used as dog feeding!
The era of airdrops may really be over...
See original
A blogger posted a post and then deleted it. The post said that Mentougou compensated at a price of 483 dollars.
However, according to the report of BlockRhythm, Mt.Gox's cold wallet transferred 140,000 bitcoins.
In addition, dForce founder Mindao, as a magician, also sent the email he received. It stated that 140,000 bitcoins would be unlocked for repayment.
For the Mentougou incident, if there is a crash, it is one of the opportunities to buy at the bottom.
It's very simple. Where did it come from at the end of 2018? BCH fork computing power war. Where did it come from at the end of 2022? FTX bankruptcy.
The top is often related to macro and policy, and the bottom is generally caused by people in the currency circle themselves.
However, according to the report of BlockRhythm, Mt.Gox's cold wallet transferred 140,000 bitcoins.
In addition, dForce founder Mindao, as a magician, also sent the email he received. It stated that 140,000 bitcoins would be unlocked for repayment.
For the Mentougou incident, if there is a crash, it is one of the opportunities to buy at the bottom.
It's very simple. Where did it come from at the end of 2018? BCH fork computing power war. Where did it come from at the end of 2022? FTX bankruptcy.
The top is often related to macro and policy, and the bottom is generally caused by people in the currency circle themselves.
See original
[Data] May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a turnaround.
➤Reason 1: US stocks
From 2013 to 2023, the probability of the S&P rising in July is over 90.31% (only in 2014). The probability of the Nasdaq rising in July during this period is 100%.
Combining the S&P and the Nasdaq, July is the best performance period for US stocks in history.
The US economy and life do have an annual cycle. The tax season ends in May, and people will receive tax refunds from April to June, so May to August are relatively prosperous months for consumption. American movies also start a concentrated summer season at the end of May.
There are two explanations for the impact on the stock market. On the one hand, speculators took cash from the stock market for consumption in May and June, and returned in July. On the other hand, consumption during this period will also affect the real economy and be reflected in company financial reports.
➤Reason 2: July reversal
First, in July, the probability of the big cake rising is 63.64%.
Second, July may be due to the mid-year reason. We can see that July is the month with the highest probability of reversal relative to the previous month.
Third, the two times that there was no reversal from June to July were 2015 and 2017, both of which rose continuously.
In other words, BTC has never had a history of falling for two consecutive months from June to July.
Of course, there are only eleven or twelve years of samples, and the persuasiveness of the data is relatively limited.
➤ Reason three: Fed policy vacuum period
The Fed FOMC meeting is held about every 6 weeks. Therefore, some months will be skipped, forming a policy vacuum month.
The Fed will hold the next FOMC meeting on July 31, 2024, Eastern Time, and August 1, 2024, Beijing Time. Therefore, July this year is basically in a policy vacuum period.
After all, the current market is more sensitive to the Fed's policy, but during this vacuum period, the Fed has no monetary policy.
Of course, it is not ruled out that Powell or a certain official's speech will also affect the market, but this influence is smaller than the decision-making and formal speech of the FOMC meeting.
➤ Conclusion
Although each reason is not sufficient, when put together, the probability of a rebound in July will be greater.
In addition, pay attention to these three tables. In August and September, the performance of S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin was not good in history.
Brother Feng has suggested before that for profitable coins, you can consider looking for opportunities to reduce your positions in July, keep some bullets in your hand, and wait for the opportunity to buy the bottom later.
➤Reason 1: US stocks
From 2013 to 2023, the probability of the S&P rising in July is over 90.31% (only in 2014). The probability of the Nasdaq rising in July during this period is 100%.
Combining the S&P and the Nasdaq, July is the best performance period for US stocks in history.
The US economy and life do have an annual cycle. The tax season ends in May, and people will receive tax refunds from April to June, so May to August are relatively prosperous months for consumption. American movies also start a concentrated summer season at the end of May.
There are two explanations for the impact on the stock market. On the one hand, speculators took cash from the stock market for consumption in May and June, and returned in July. On the other hand, consumption during this period will also affect the real economy and be reflected in company financial reports.
➤Reason 2: July reversal
First, in July, the probability of the big cake rising is 63.64%.
Second, July may be due to the mid-year reason. We can see that July is the month with the highest probability of reversal relative to the previous month.
Third, the two times that there was no reversal from June to July were 2015 and 2017, both of which rose continuously.
In other words, BTC has never had a history of falling for two consecutive months from June to July.
Of course, there are only eleven or twelve years of samples, and the persuasiveness of the data is relatively limited.
➤ Reason three: Fed policy vacuum period
The Fed FOMC meeting is held about every 6 weeks. Therefore, some months will be skipped, forming a policy vacuum month.
The Fed will hold the next FOMC meeting on July 31, 2024, Eastern Time, and August 1, 2024, Beijing Time. Therefore, July this year is basically in a policy vacuum period.
After all, the current market is more sensitive to the Fed's policy, but during this vacuum period, the Fed has no monetary policy.
Of course, it is not ruled out that Powell or a certain official's speech will also affect the market, but this influence is smaller than the decision-making and formal speech of the FOMC meeting.
➤ Conclusion
Although each reason is not sufficient, when put together, the probability of a rebound in July will be greater.
In addition, pay attention to these three tables. In August and September, the performance of S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin was not good in history.
Brother Feng has suggested before that for profitable coins, you can consider looking for opportunities to reduce your positions in July, keep some bullets in your hand, and wait for the opportunity to buy the bottom later.
See original
1. The bull market is not over (don’t care if it comes or not, there will be a main uptrend and a copycat season)
2. The decline is not over. At least there will be a wave of decline in the US stock market in the early stage of the interest rate cut.
3. It is not ruled out that a small or medium-sized black swan will appear, leading to a market similar to 312.
4. It is recommended to make more money during this period, and there will be opportunities to buy at the bottom, but the bullets must be prepared.
5. There may be a rebound in July.
6. Brother Feng’s point of view is that we are now in the second half of the abnormal 2019. Recently, I found that no one likes to read long articles, but short articles have a large number of readers. If you want to see the analysis, please reply in the comment area, and I will see if anyone wants to read it.
2. The decline is not over. At least there will be a wave of decline in the US stock market in the early stage of the interest rate cut.
3. It is not ruled out that a small or medium-sized black swan will appear, leading to a market similar to 312.
4. It is recommended to make more money during this period, and there will be opportunities to buy at the bottom, but the bullets must be prepared.
5. There may be a rebound in July.
6. Brother Feng’s point of view is that we are now in the second half of the abnormal 2019. Recently, I found that no one likes to read long articles, but short articles have a large number of readers. If you want to see the analysis, please reply in the comment area, and I will see if anyone wants to read it.
See original
【Nanny-level tutorial】Particle airdrop final sprint
➤ Preparation and precautions
(1) Wallet: okx (recommended), Unisat, Bitget, Xverse, imToken, bybit
(2) The longer the wallet address is applied, the more frequent the transaction, and the larger the asset volume, the greater the expansion multiple.
"The maximum expansion is 150%."
(3) It is best if the ETH in the Ethereum mainnet in the wallet is > 0.001ETH
➤ Operation process:
Step 1: Connect to the wallet https://pioneer.particle.network?inviteCode=0HNNRN
Step 2: Follow Twitter and join Discord to complete the registration.
Step 3: Receive test coins.
Method 1 is to find "How to get Testnet tokens?" on the event page, register alchemy and receive test coins on various testnets. The advantage is that it supports multiple testnets, but the disadvantage is that it requires the wallet to have a balance of no less than 0.001ETH on the Ethereum mainnet, and some friends may find it a bit troublesome to register.
Method 2 is https://cloud.google.com/application/web3/faucet/ethereum/sepolia
The disadvantage is that you can only get ETH sepolia test network, and the amount is not much. The advantage is that it is easy to register, you can log in with a Google account, and there is no requirement for the wallet main network balance at present (it is recommended to get it quickly, and the conditions for getting it often change).
Step 4: Click the "DEPOSIT" button to cross the test coin to become GAS (not less than 1 dollar).
Step 5: Daily check-in. Button "CHECKED IN".
Step 6: In the upper right corner, find your own Particle network wallet address and copy it.
Step 6: In your own wallet (okx, Little Fox, bitget, etc.), switch to the network that has received the test coin, and transfer more to the wallet address copied in the previous step at one time.
Step 7: Daily interaction. On the activity page, find "OPEN WALLET", switch to the network that received the test coin, and then transfer a small amount to yourself (addresses such as okx, Little Fox, bitget, etc.).
Note 1: Select USDG as gas.
Note 2: The daily limit is 100 times, and no points will be awarded for more than 100 times.
➤Project Introduction
Particle belongs to the innovative chain abstraction track, which can achieve dynamic cross-chain interoperability between EVM chain and non-EVM compatible chain.
Pre-seed + seed rounds raised a total of US$8.8 million.
It is recommended that friends create a Particle Network general account:
https://pioneer.particle.network?inviteCode=0HNNRN
➤ Preparation and precautions
(1) Wallet: okx (recommended), Unisat, Bitget, Xverse, imToken, bybit
(2) The longer the wallet address is applied, the more frequent the transaction, and the larger the asset volume, the greater the expansion multiple.
"The maximum expansion is 150%."
(3) It is best if the ETH in the Ethereum mainnet in the wallet is > 0.001ETH
➤ Operation process:
Step 1: Connect to the wallet https://pioneer.particle.network?inviteCode=0HNNRN
Step 2: Follow Twitter and join Discord to complete the registration.
Step 3: Receive test coins.
Method 1 is to find "How to get Testnet tokens?" on the event page, register alchemy and receive test coins on various testnets. The advantage is that it supports multiple testnets, but the disadvantage is that it requires the wallet to have a balance of no less than 0.001ETH on the Ethereum mainnet, and some friends may find it a bit troublesome to register.
Method 2 is https://cloud.google.com/application/web3/faucet/ethereum/sepolia
The disadvantage is that you can only get ETH sepolia test network, and the amount is not much. The advantage is that it is easy to register, you can log in with a Google account, and there is no requirement for the wallet main network balance at present (it is recommended to get it quickly, and the conditions for getting it often change).
Step 4: Click the "DEPOSIT" button to cross the test coin to become GAS (not less than 1 dollar).
Step 5: Daily check-in. Button "CHECKED IN".
Step 6: In the upper right corner, find your own Particle network wallet address and copy it.
Step 6: In your own wallet (okx, Little Fox, bitget, etc.), switch to the network that has received the test coin, and transfer more to the wallet address copied in the previous step at one time.
Step 7: Daily interaction. On the activity page, find "OPEN WALLET", switch to the network that received the test coin, and then transfer a small amount to yourself (addresses such as okx, Little Fox, bitget, etc.).
Note 1: Select USDG as gas.
Note 2: The daily limit is 100 times, and no points will be awarded for more than 100 times.
➤Project Introduction
Particle belongs to the innovative chain abstraction track, which can achieve dynamic cross-chain interoperability between EVM chain and non-EVM compatible chain.
Pre-seed + seed rounds raised a total of US$8.8 million.
It is recommended that friends create a Particle Network general account:
https://pioneer.particle.network?inviteCode=0HNNRN
See original
Is the bull market over?
A survey was conducted on Twitter, Weibo, and Square. The majority of respondents thought that the bull market was halfway through. The second most respondents thought that the bull market was over, and the last most respondents thought that the bull market had not come.
Whether the bull market was halfway through or not, it depends on how to define the bull market. But the fact that the bull market was over needs to be discussed.
First, the macroeconomic cycle.
Although interest rate cuts do not mean loosening the monetary policy, and even expanding the balance sheet does not mean loosening the monetary policy. However, interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansions are ultimately part of the monetary policy easing cycle.
Whether it is doing real business or speculating, this does not necessarily have to be the best environment for entrepreneurs or investors in their lifetime, as long as it is a suitable stage in the recent cycle.
Therefore, after the interest rate cut, the real economy will recover and investment will have a certain degree of relative prosperity.
As the world currency, the US dollar will also affect the world. After the interest rate cut, the interest rate on US dollar deposits in banks will drop, and US bonds will become more valuable; US bond prices will rise, and US bond yields will fall; US bonds (mainly 10-year bonds) are considered risk-free investments, and their yields will fall, so funds will gradually flow to risky assets, so the speculative market will also have a certain degree of relative prosperity.
Second, the currency market cycle.
The four-year cycle of the currency market is needless to say. There is a big bull market every four years, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025...
The way we make money is to take advantage of airdrops, secondary market speculation, etc. However, mining, exchanges, project parties...they make money by selling mining machines, transaction fees (and liquidation), issuing coins, etc.
The main body of this industry will increase the market through product entrepreneurship, creating emotions, market value management, etc.
Third, political factors.
Since Trump claimed that he would support cryptocurrency, it has received a lot of crypto donations, and then the other party also began to support the crypto market.
Trump even claimed that after being elected, he would promote Florida to become the center of crypto. His team even called for Bitcoin to be included in the U.S. balance sheet.
Trump will get more support because he supports crypto. Once he is elected, crypto should be able to get certain political support
So, the bull market is not over. It may even be affected by government factors, and there will be certain surprises.
A survey was conducted on Twitter, Weibo, and Square. The majority of respondents thought that the bull market was halfway through. The second most respondents thought that the bull market was over, and the last most respondents thought that the bull market had not come.
Whether the bull market was halfway through or not, it depends on how to define the bull market. But the fact that the bull market was over needs to be discussed.
First, the macroeconomic cycle.
Although interest rate cuts do not mean loosening the monetary policy, and even expanding the balance sheet does not mean loosening the monetary policy. However, interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansions are ultimately part of the monetary policy easing cycle.
Whether it is doing real business or speculating, this does not necessarily have to be the best environment for entrepreneurs or investors in their lifetime, as long as it is a suitable stage in the recent cycle.
Therefore, after the interest rate cut, the real economy will recover and investment will have a certain degree of relative prosperity.
As the world currency, the US dollar will also affect the world. After the interest rate cut, the interest rate on US dollar deposits in banks will drop, and US bonds will become more valuable; US bond prices will rise, and US bond yields will fall; US bonds (mainly 10-year bonds) are considered risk-free investments, and their yields will fall, so funds will gradually flow to risky assets, so the speculative market will also have a certain degree of relative prosperity.
Second, the currency market cycle.
The four-year cycle of the currency market is needless to say. There is a big bull market every four years, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025...
The way we make money is to take advantage of airdrops, secondary market speculation, etc. However, mining, exchanges, project parties...they make money by selling mining machines, transaction fees (and liquidation), issuing coins, etc.
The main body of this industry will increase the market through product entrepreneurship, creating emotions, market value management, etc.
Third, political factors.
Since Trump claimed that he would support cryptocurrency, it has received a lot of crypto donations, and then the other party also began to support the crypto market.
Trump even claimed that after being elected, he would promote Florida to become the center of crypto. His team even called for Bitcoin to be included in the U.S. balance sheet.
Trump will get more support because he supports crypto. Once he is elected, crypto should be able to get certain political support
So, the bull market is not over. It may even be affected by government factors, and there will be certain surprises.
See original
Among the coins I hold, $SSV fell the least yesterday. $ENS rose the most today.
Among the top 100 tokens by market value, #LDO, ENS and#MKRrebounded the most in 24 hours.
It seems that the coins with high correlation with Auntie performed relatively better.
Deduct 1 if you agree, and deduct 0 if you disagree.
Among the top 100 tokens by market value, #LDO, ENS and#MKRrebounded the most in 24 hours.
It seems that the coins with high correlation with Auntie performed relatively better.
Deduct 1 if you agree, and deduct 0 if you disagree.
See original
BTC has become a member of the US stock market. Since October 2023, BTC (orange) has gradually come together with the S&P (blue) and the Nasdaq (green), while ETH (black) has been left behind.
BTC is closely linked to the US stock market, and has just recently shown a trend of reverse fluctuations.
From the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, from July to October 2023, BTC and ETH have reversed trends with the US stock market, and these two intervals also include bottom-fishing intervals.
From the chart, the reverse trend of BTC\ETH and the US stock market has just begun.
BTC is closely linked to the US stock market, and has just recently shown a trend of reverse fluctuations.
From the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, from July to October 2023, BTC and ETH have reversed trends with the US stock market, and these two intervals also include bottom-fishing intervals.
From the chart, the reverse trend of BTC\ETH and the US stock market has just begun.
See original
Friends who are short asked me what to do, I just have two words - invest in Bitcoin, wait for opportunities in altcoins.
Friends who are fully invested also asked me what to do, I also have two words - look for opportunities to reduce positions (for example, July, July is the month of the Fed's policy vacuum), and wait for opportunities to take them back. Don't cut your losses, and consider reducing your positions if you have profits.
Are there any friends who are half-invested? Brother Feng is half-invested now, just one word, wait for opportunities!
In addition, you can consider changing some ETH and wait for ETFs to pass. Before the ETF passes, its trend should be between BTC and altcoins.
Friends who are fully invested also asked me what to do, I also have two words - look for opportunities to reduce positions (for example, July, July is the month of the Fed's policy vacuum), and wait for opportunities to take them back. Don't cut your losses, and consider reducing your positions if you have profits.
Are there any friends who are half-invested? Brother Feng is half-invested now, just one word, wait for opportunities!
In addition, you can consider changing some ETH and wait for ETFs to pass. Before the ETF passes, its trend should be between BTC and altcoins.
See original
Note that what Buffett said is - others are afraid of me, I am greedy.
Not - others are disgusted by me, I am greedy
😂😂😂😂
Not - others are disgusted by me, I am greedy
😂😂😂😂
LIVETVBee
--
Today, an old friend asked me which track zk is on and whether it is the same as op. I was still asleep at the time, so I spontaneously explained to him the difference between opimism-rollup and zk-rollup.
When I woke up, I felt something was wrong, so I quickly told him not to take zk for the time being.
It is said that you should buy when no one cares and sell when everyone is talking about it, which should also include when everyone is talking about it
😂
.
At least at this time, it is not recommended to take it. Most of the other VC coins did not perform well when they were first launched, not to mention this ZK that has aroused public resentment...
When I woke up, I felt something was wrong, so I quickly told him not to take zk for the time being.
It is said that you should buy when no one cares and sell when everyone is talking about it, which should also include when everyone is talking about it
😂
.
At least at this time, it is not recommended to take it. Most of the other VC coins did not perform well when they were first launched, not to mention this ZK that has aroused public resentment...
See original
Today, an old friend asked me which track zk is on and whether it is the same as op. I was still asleep at the time, so I spontaneously explained to him the difference between opimism-rollup and zk-rollup.
When I woke up, I felt something was wrong, so I quickly told him not to take zk for the time being.
It is said that you should buy when no one cares and sell when everyone is talking about it, which should also include when everyone is talking about it
😂
.
At least at this time, it is not recommended to take it. Most of the other VC coins did not perform well when they were first launched, not to mention this ZK that has aroused public resentment...
When I woke up, I felt something was wrong, so I quickly told him not to take zk for the time being.
It is said that you should buy when no one cares and sell when everyone is talking about it, which should also include when everyone is talking about it
😂
.
At least at this time, it is not recommended to take it. Most of the other VC coins did not perform well when they were first launched, not to mention this ZK that has aroused public resentment...
See original
Is this market really related to the dot plot?
In December last year, the dot plot showed that the fastest rate cut this year (considering continuous rate cuts) was most likely in September, followed by August and November.
However, the market expected a rate cut in March at the time, and both the US stock market and the currency market rose. They ignored the dot plot.
In June this year, the dot plot showed that the fastest rate cut this year (considering continuous rate cuts) was most likely in November (42%), followed by December (37%), and the probability of no rate cut this year was 21%.
The current market expectations are that the highest expectations for September and November are 5-5.25%, and the current rate is 5.25-5%. In other words, the market expects a rate cut in September or November. The original expectation was a rate cut in September, but not in October, so the result of the dot plot is not very hawkish, but only a little hawkish.
At the beginning of this year, market sentiment completely ignored the dot plot. And now, it is too sensitive to the dot plot.
So in this market, what may be sensitive is not the dot plot.
In December last year, the dot plot showed that the fastest rate cut this year (considering continuous rate cuts) was most likely in September, followed by August and November.
However, the market expected a rate cut in March at the time, and both the US stock market and the currency market rose. They ignored the dot plot.
In June this year, the dot plot showed that the fastest rate cut this year (considering continuous rate cuts) was most likely in November (42%), followed by December (37%), and the probability of no rate cut this year was 21%.
The current market expectations are that the highest expectations for September and November are 5-5.25%, and the current rate is 5.25-5%. In other words, the market expects a rate cut in September or November. The original expectation was a rate cut in September, but not in October, so the result of the dot plot is not very hawkish, but only a little hawkish.
At the beginning of this year, market sentiment completely ignored the dot plot. And now, it is too sensitive to the dot plot.
So in this market, what may be sensitive is not the dot plot.
LIVETVBee
--
Why is it said that the Fed’s doves hide hawks at the December FOMC meeting?
Pigeons
➤The intimidating eagle
From June to September 2023, the high-density expectation of the dot plot is always that the terminal interest rate is between 5.25 and 5.5%. This has caused the market to fail to completely shake off the tragic expectation of another interest rate hike since August.
In the September 2023 dot plot, officials predicted that the probability of another interest rate increase in 2023 was 63%. Among 19 officials, 12 people believed that another interest rate increase was needed. As a result, the Fed will never raise interest rates again after September 2023...
The Federal Reserve is like this, looking hawkish throughout the fourth quarter of 2023...
The reason why the Federal Reserve has adopted such a scary posture is that Little Bee speculates that the strategic direction in 2023 is hawking. This strategic plan may have determined the future cycle of water collection and hawking as early as the release of water in 2020.
On the other hand, in the face of higher inflation, the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals to influence market sentiment and guide the behavior of market entities. Faced with the hawkish tone, companies tend to cut prices, workers tend to lower wage demands, consumers tend to reduce consumption, and crude oil prices tend to fall, thus allowing the inflation rate to be better controlled.
➤Turn pigeon
Finally, in December 2023, the trend shifted from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts, letting the market feel the dovish atmosphere.
Similar to the previous analysis, it took more than a year from the first interest rate cut in 2022 to 2023. During this time, the Fed's main strategic goal was to suppress inflation. After entering 2023, while suppressing inflation, the Federal Reserve must take suppressing economic recession as one of its strategic goals, so its attitude and tone have changed from hawk to dove.
First, the 2024 interest rate forecast range has fallen relative to September's dot plot. This means interest rates in 2024 will be looser than originally expected.
Second, in the opening remarks of the press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell affirmed that "the unemployment rate will remain low" and "inflation has eased in the past year" in 2023, and set the inflation rate of 2% as a longer-term goal (2026) .
Third, although Powell said that he would not rule out further interest rate increases, he believed that interest rates may have reached or are close to their peak. Although he said that "it is too early to declare victory against inflation," the Fed meeting has begun to discuss the timing of interest rate cuts.
Tibetan eagle in the pigeon 中
Although the Fed's attitude and dot plot are reversed compared to September 2023, there may still be hawks among the doves.
➤Compared to June 2023 forecast
image
Comparing the dot plots of June, September, and December 2023, for the interest rate forecast in 2024, the December forecast is indeed lower than the September forecast, but still higher than the June forecast. Therefore, the so-called dove is just a prediction relative to September 2023, and the prediction relative to June 2023 may be hawkish.
➤Compared to market expectations
CME Group’s interest rate futures show that the market is predicting a rate cut in March 2024.
image
However, according to each interest rate cut of 25 basis points, there will be no pause in continuous interest rate cuts. This dot plot shows that the highest probability of an interest rate cut will be in September, and the earliest interest rate cut prediction is also in May 2024.
image
Among the 19 Fed officials who participated in the forecast, only one predicted that the interest rate at the end of the year would be 3.75~4.00% (interest rate cuts will begin in May). No one predicts that interest rates will be between 4.00 and 4.05 at the end of 2024 (rate cuts will begin in June). Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in May is very low. There is no interest rate meeting in July, and the prediction of interest rate cuts starting in August is lower than that in October.
The Fed dot plot predictions will differ from actual conditions, but not by much. Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in March is extremely low. This is very different from market expectations. After 19 Fed officials predicted in December, the possibility of a sudden interest rate cut in March that has nothing to do with the forecast is probably unlikely.
Of course, it is also possible to cut interest rates in March and then suspend the rate cuts in the middle. However, the probability of suspending interest rate policy in the initial stage is probably not high.
Therefore, market expectations for interest rate cuts may be too optimistic.
➤Balance shrinkage is still continuing
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's opening remarks at the press conference were, "We have decided to keep policy rates unchanged," followed by "and continue to reduce our securities holdings." When the Fed releases money, it releases dollars into the market by purchasing securities. Therefore, although it stopped raising interest rates, the Fed continued to shrink its balance sheet by reducing its holdings of securities and withdrawing U.S. dollars.
➤Interest rate comparison
In his opening remarks at the press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated, “The appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6% by the end of 2024 and 3.0% by the end of 2025.6% and will be 2.9% by the end of 2026."
What is the concept of this interest rate?
February 2014, Oxtail, interest rate 0.07%,
In January 2015, during the bear market, the interest rate was 0.12%.
In January 2018, Oxtail, the interest rate was 1.42%,
Before the interest rate cut in the first half of 2019, the interest rate was 2.4%.
In January 2021, Oxtail, the interest rate was 0.08%.
Therefore, in 2024, when the economy is approaching or may have already declined, the interest rate will be 4.6%, in 2025, the interest rate will be 3.6%, and in 2026, the interest rate will be 2.9%. If interest rates really drop by this much, what do you think will happen to the easing of funds in the speculative market?
Of course, this expectation is still far away, and the actual situation may vary greatly. 2025-2026 is still far away. However, the short-term emotional impact of the switch from hawk to dove may have relatively limited benefits for 2024.
Pigeons
➤The intimidating eagle
From June to September 2023, the high-density expectation of the dot plot is always that the terminal interest rate is between 5.25 and 5.5%. This has caused the market to fail to completely shake off the tragic expectation of another interest rate hike since August.
In the September 2023 dot plot, officials predicted that the probability of another interest rate increase in 2023 was 63%. Among 19 officials, 12 people believed that another interest rate increase was needed. As a result, the Fed will never raise interest rates again after September 2023...
The Federal Reserve is like this, looking hawkish throughout the fourth quarter of 2023...
The reason why the Federal Reserve has adopted such a scary posture is that Little Bee speculates that the strategic direction in 2023 is hawking. This strategic plan may have determined the future cycle of water collection and hawking as early as the release of water in 2020.
On the other hand, in the face of higher inflation, the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals to influence market sentiment and guide the behavior of market entities. Faced with the hawkish tone, companies tend to cut prices, workers tend to lower wage demands, consumers tend to reduce consumption, and crude oil prices tend to fall, thus allowing the inflation rate to be better controlled.
➤Turn pigeon
Finally, in December 2023, the trend shifted from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts, letting the market feel the dovish atmosphere.
Similar to the previous analysis, it took more than a year from the first interest rate cut in 2022 to 2023. During this time, the Fed's main strategic goal was to suppress inflation. After entering 2023, while suppressing inflation, the Federal Reserve must take suppressing economic recession as one of its strategic goals, so its attitude and tone have changed from hawk to dove.
First, the 2024 interest rate forecast range has fallen relative to September's dot plot. This means interest rates in 2024 will be looser than originally expected.
Second, in the opening remarks of the press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell affirmed that "the unemployment rate will remain low" and "inflation has eased in the past year" in 2023, and set the inflation rate of 2% as a longer-term goal (2026) .
Third, although Powell said that he would not rule out further interest rate increases, he believed that interest rates may have reached or are close to their peak. Although he said that "it is too early to declare victory against inflation," the Fed meeting has begun to discuss the timing of interest rate cuts.
Tibetan eagle in the pigeon 中
Although the Fed's attitude and dot plot are reversed compared to September 2023, there may still be hawks among the doves.
➤Compared to June 2023 forecast
image
Comparing the dot plots of June, September, and December 2023, for the interest rate forecast in 2024, the December forecast is indeed lower than the September forecast, but still higher than the June forecast. Therefore, the so-called dove is just a prediction relative to September 2023, and the prediction relative to June 2023 may be hawkish.
➤Compared to market expectations
CME Group’s interest rate futures show that the market is predicting a rate cut in March 2024.
image
However, according to each interest rate cut of 25 basis points, there will be no pause in continuous interest rate cuts. This dot plot shows that the highest probability of an interest rate cut will be in September, and the earliest interest rate cut prediction is also in May 2024.
image
Among the 19 Fed officials who participated in the forecast, only one predicted that the interest rate at the end of the year would be 3.75~4.00% (interest rate cuts will begin in May). No one predicts that interest rates will be between 4.00 and 4.05 at the end of 2024 (rate cuts will begin in June). Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in May is very low. There is no interest rate meeting in July, and the prediction of interest rate cuts starting in August is lower than that in October.
The Fed dot plot predictions will differ from actual conditions, but not by much. Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in March is extremely low. This is very different from market expectations. After 19 Fed officials predicted in December, the possibility of a sudden interest rate cut in March that has nothing to do with the forecast is probably unlikely.
Of course, it is also possible to cut interest rates in March and then suspend the rate cuts in the middle. However, the probability of suspending interest rate policy in the initial stage is probably not high.
Therefore, market expectations for interest rate cuts may be too optimistic.
➤Balance shrinkage is still continuing
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's opening remarks at the press conference were, "We have decided to keep policy rates unchanged," followed by "and continue to reduce our securities holdings." When the Fed releases money, it releases dollars into the market by purchasing securities. Therefore, although it stopped raising interest rates, the Fed continued to shrink its balance sheet by reducing its holdings of securities and withdrawing U.S. dollars.
➤Interest rate comparison
In his opening remarks at the press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated, “The appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6% by the end of 2024 and 3.0% by the end of 2025.6% and will be 2.9% by the end of 2026."
What is the concept of this interest rate?
February 2014, Oxtail, interest rate 0.07%,
In January 2015, during the bear market, the interest rate was 0.12%.
In January 2018, Oxtail, the interest rate was 1.42%,
Before the interest rate cut in the first half of 2019, the interest rate was 2.4%.
In January 2021, Oxtail, the interest rate was 0.08%.
Therefore, in 2024, when the economy is approaching or may have already declined, the interest rate will be 4.6%, in 2025, the interest rate will be 3.6%, and in 2026, the interest rate will be 2.9%. If interest rates really drop by this much, what do you think will happen to the easing of funds in the speculative market?
Of course, this expectation is still far away, and the actual situation may vary greatly. 2025-2026 is still far away. However, the short-term emotional impact of the switch from hawk to dove may have relatively limited benefits for 2024.
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