The macro environment we are currently in is indeed very similar to that of 2019.

➤ Interest Rate Cuts vs. Balance Sheet Reduction

From April to August 2019, there was a phase where the effective federal funds rate was in a declining stage (although the federal funds rate was not cut before July, the effective federal funds rate slightly decreased), while the Federal Reserve was also reducing its balance sheet.

Currently, we are also in a macro environment where interest rates are being cut while the balance sheet is being reduced.

➤ Interest Rate Cuts vs. Periodic Peaks

During the period from April to August 2019, the decrease in interest rates was not significant, and BTC experienced a small peak.

Currently, the decline in the federal funds rate is relatively obvious, and BTC has reached a significant peak of $100,000, but is temporarily in a retracement phase.

➤ Summary

The retracement may not be over yet.

It is uncertain whether there will be a black swan event, as black swan events are inherently unpredictable. Moreover, the logic of a black swan being predictable is invalid.

However, the logic of macroeconomic impacts on liquidity is valid. From a macroeconomic perspective, the bull market is still expected to continue for some time in the future.

Note: Discussing from only one perspective does not yield conclusions and does not constitute investment advice.