Discuss the market trends of Bitcoin

First, let's take a look at the monthly chart shape of the cloud. Theoretically speaking, from the monthly perspective, it is undoubtedly a bull market at the moment, because a rise at the monthly level definitely represents a major trend, so when the monthly line turns upward, it basically indicates that the market is heading towards a big bull.

Figure 1
Weekly Chart

Currently, the weekly chart is nearing its peak, estimating that there might be one or two more weeks of upward trend, or it is possible that this week’s upward trend has already reached its peak, as 100000 is a large round number and poses significant market pressure, so it is not easy to break through. Additionally, the weekly chart is facing pressure from the trend line, as well as divergence at the weekly level. Therefore, the risks are relatively high.

Figure 2

Once the weekly chart starts to show a downward pattern, it indicates that this wave of upward trend has already come to an end, thus the indicator for exiting at the peak remains the top of the cloud's weekly chart.
Figure 3

At the daily level, there are risks in the short term, and the daily chart has formed a double top pattern. The risks at the daily level are present, but generally not very large; the biggest concern is the risk at the weekly level.

Figure 4

Cleaning the market is also extremely painful for the dealer

Because there are always some idiots
No matter how you smash the market
No matter how you release bad news
This idiot will not leave

Of course
The premise is that the coin dealer still wants to continue playing
The dealer has not run away

——Some experience in doing market management business before

I should be the first blogger on Weibo who publicly favors Ripple XRP. The current income has almost doubled. If you choose the right coin and follow the right person, it is not difficult to make money. Why doesn't your coin rise? Many people think that the time has not come yet. Don't deceive yourself. It is right to change junk coins in time. Why is Ripple so strong? 1 Because Ripple issued the coin earlier, it is unique, and Ripple's dealers are naturally the richest. 2 Ripple has relatively fewer retail investors than sol doge hot coins, and the car is lighter. 3 Ripple's rise is more in line with financial logic (because finance is usually a few people who seize opportunities and make money, and most people miss out or lose money). If sol doge pulls the market like Ripple at this stage, it means that many people can seize the opportunity, which is not in line with financial laws.

There will be altcoin seasons, but not all altcoins will rise. Choosing coins is very important; the cryptocurrency market is highly competitive, and the long-tail effect is very weak.

What does this mean? It means that if your coin doesn't have new hotspots to attract funds, then the 【sustained value】 of this coin (【long-term consensus】) is generally quite weak, and simply insufficient to support long-term capital inflow, leading to a rapid shrinkage of its market value.

A competitive field from a year ago may only have one strong leader left after a year, while the others have been obliterated.

For example, in the inscription field, the leading coin is Ordi; apart from that, can you think of any other inscription coins? What is the current status of these coins, and how much have they shrunk compared to their historical highs? Coins like BTC, SOL, and PEPE have now broken their historical highs; why are some altcoins unable to keep up in this bullish cycle? If a coin is a junk coin, it should be replaced; holding onto it will only cause you to miss out on this bullish market.

Today I want to expound a new point of view.

This will be the eve of an unprecedented Shanzhai bull market!

Today's currency market value is incomparable to any time in history.

Policy support, public attention, market value of big cakes, and regularity of funds.

The currency circle is in the best stage in history.

BTC keeps refreshing ATH, but everyone holds Shanzhai and has not risen. Many people have lost patience and many people have started to fud.

In fact, it is currently the best stage in history, including#ETHhas also been accepted by the regular market.

There is no doubt that the largest Shanzhai bubble in history will be produced here.

Many people are broken-hearted today!

You just lack confidence!

Keep persisting, keep working hard, and get rich together! My group friends and I are waiting for you at A9.

I have seen many contracts blow up. Let me share my opinions.

You can trade contracts, but your initial contract capital must not exceed 5% of your total assets, and the net long or net short leverage should not exceed 3X.

Contracts rely on skills, and the market trend is a way to win big with a small investment. The risk is huge! ! !

People who can succeed in this round of contracts, such as Langlang, have made a contract from $1,000 to $10 million, a ten-thousand-fold profit. He does not win big with a big investment.

For example, when his profit exceeds $4.5 million, he only leaves about $300,000 to $500,000 in the contract account, and withdraws all the profits. Then it is also luck, and it is also top-level strength. Relying on a wave of X to take off, the total profit directly exceeds $10 million.

Contracts are to exercise your trading skills. Its advantage is that you can go long or short, and it can multiply your profits and losses.

Suppose you have $100,000, and you use $5,000. If you can't make $5,000 stable and low-retracement to $50,000, then why do you think you can make $500,000 with $50,000?

So, if you want to play contracts, don't play contracts with more than 5% of your assets.
If you can't make 10X stable with low retracement from small funds, then it's impossible for you with large funds.

This thing also depends on talent and skills. Many people just don't have trading talent. If you play with 3%-5% of funds, at least there is room for trial and error. If you make mistakes 2-3 times, your total assets will only lose less than 15%, and at least you have a chance to stand up from another track that suits you.

In summary, there are a few points,
1: Use less than 5% of funds to do contracts
2: The total leverage net long or net short should not exceed 3X.
3: You can only get rich by going long, and you can't get rich by going short.
4: Those who open 10x+ are all classified as gamblers. Such people basically lose everything.

I often treat contracts as spot trading. Why?

Because the liquidity of contracts is 2-3 times higher than that of spot trading. And the handling fee is 70% lower.

The cost of closing a 1-2M size position + closing a position of altcoins is at least 0.5% lower than that of spot trading. As for the funding rate, as long as the net long position does not exceed 10 days, most of the time, contracts are more suitable.

Many people are fudding the Bitcoin ecosystem.

I am still full of confidence in this new field of the current bull market! New projects over old ones!
The market could take off at any time, just a spark away from igniting.

1. ME's Runes swap has been released, and liquidity issues are being resolved. The issuance of ME tokens is imminent, and some exchanges are about to open pre-market trading, which is also a trigger point.

2. The old leaders, ordi and sats, have completed all preparations for their trends, and I believe they can take off at any time. Although the on-chain conditions cannot replicate last year's inscription boom, these two that got listed on exchanges should still be speculative.

3. The new leader DOG is already very close to its ATH, and after reaching a new high, it will accelerate its surge! Although there isn't much major spot trading, the on-chain liquidity is completely sufficient.

4. rsic and runecoin have also recently bubbled up, although they may lack substantial value, their gameplay is very flashy. Once you really start playing, you probably won't understand how it flies. It is also the only rune-related coin that is listed on major exchanges, so it is worth looking forward to.

5. Atomicals' virtual machine avm is still the most anticipated, complying with existing rules, and represents a technological revolution on the BTC chain. It has been tested before, and now it should be stuck at the complex compiler stage. Regardless of whether this avm can be produced, in a bull market, speculation and storytelling are already impressive. Once smart contracts are truly implemented, the price of atom will need to be re-evaluated, and how much it will go up is really hard to say.

In fact, the entire market of altcoins has already made sufficient preparations, and some major meme public chains have already started to rally, many are close to new highs, and some have even reached new highs.

In fact, our altcoin season has truly arrived. If the coins in your hands haven't increased, it's only temporary. In a bull market, they will definitely rise; it's just that the impressive ones will rise more, and the less impressive ones will rise less. Moreover, the BTC ecosystem will definitely be the impressive part, so continue to wait.
Today, there is plenty of liquidity.

November 22
The long-short ratio of the two major exchanges for Bitcoin is 0.73, indicating a clear bearish sentiment in the Bitcoin futures open interest!

The open interest long-short ratio from the two major exchanges suggests that the market has not yet fully reached the FOMO stage, even though today the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) has already hit a high of 94!

In a bull market in the cryptocurrency space, many traders will continuously short; this is not the traders' fault: the market makers in a bull market will continuously push the price higher.
The trend does not correct, making it difficult to enter long positions; shorting has a small stop loss, but prices won't drop!

Once Bitcoin stabilizes above 100,000, I will post on Weibo about the potential risks of a significant correction for Bitcoin.

No trading advice is provided, only for reference!

Common Characteristics of Retail Investors in the Capital Market

See how many you or your friends have fallen for

1. Easily develop faith in an investment target that is continually rising or rapidly increasing; the more an asset rises, the more faith they have. When prices rise further away from the fundamentals, they not only fail to reduce their holdings but may also continue to increase their positions, buying more as prices go up.

2. Blindly trust influencers and 'experts', lacking independent thinking skills, believing everything they hear.

3. Easily fall for narratives describing the future, without considering the current facts. For example, many retail investors previously believed that 'new energy is the future of humanity', so they bought shares in electric vehicle companies at high prices without considering that very few of those companies will survive in 10 years, and that those stock prices have already priced in many years of future performance.

4. Enjoy hearing rumors and investment advice from others who are also retail investors.

5. Experience FOMO (fear of missing out) when they see an asset's price soar, feeling compelled to participate.

6. Lack knowledge of finance and economics, entering the capital market to chase prices without understanding anything.

7. Treat the capital market like a casino, always thinking about 'taking a gamble' or 'going for it' when investing or trading.

8. Buy without any research beforehand, simply because they 'feel it will rise'.

In the early stages of a bull market, altcoins are always slow. The explosion of memes is partly due to trending narratives and also to attract new retail investors into the market. However, the purpose of value altcoins is still to harvest retail investors. Therefore, memes make money quickly, and in summary, most people choose memes because they will be harvested. But after the first wave of memes, the market will experience a correction. When greed turns into fear, value altcoins may gradually start to emerge.

Today I blocked a group of weird people. Many people have lost money recently, but they are embarrassed to admit that they are not aware enough and stupid, and they will not reflect on themselves. It would be so embarrassing to admit that they are not good enough.

There is no place to vent the resentment in my heart, so I have to find an outlet. After searching for a long time, I found that many big Vs did not lose money, and they can make money even if they do not trade. I feel unbalanced and concluded that my losses are mainly due to the big Vs cutting too much. The money of the big Vs is earned by cutting us. The ones who did not cut are these people who shouted in 36 directions a day, which made me lose money. It is not unfair to block all of them. I feel much more comfortable thinking this way. It is even more comfortable to curse them. I will be so happy to defeat them, as if I have not lost anything.

Blocking is a virtue. Help others and help yourself. There are two types of online trolls in the currency circle. One type only thinks that they are superior. To put it bluntly, you have come to the currency circle to make money. This is a high-risk market. If you have a strong ability to make money off the market and you are particularly awesome. Do you still need to come to the currency circle to make money? What kind of person are you? Don't you have any idea in your mind? One type is that if you lose money, you will criticize without thinking. You always think that it is the comments of others that affect you. It caused you to lose money, but is it really the case? It is nothing more than an excuse for your own incompetence. Otherwise, you ask him to admit that he is not good at technology and is a leek. How embarrassing. To put it bluntly, this kind of person is pitiful.

A person relies on the virtual network to gain the right to speak, to rely on the virtual network to gain a sense of existence, and to rely on the virtual network to vent his negative emotions. If not such a person, who can be pitiful?

The combination of Chuanbao + Musk's madmen is not just talk; they have already started to turn Bitcoin into the next anchor for the dollar. Using hundreds of thousands of coins to pay off the American national debt, it now appears to be a remarkably clever move. Whether to follow, how to follow, and how to break through will greatly test Eastern wisdom.

No contracts

No contracts

No contracts

Shanzhai and memes are originally leveraged

Play with spare money, don't go all in

The truth of the matter is unknown

But I heard it's a friend of a friend

Indeed, I can't get in touch anymore

Hope it's fake

Some altcoins that can be watched in the secondary market

1. CAKE, PancakeSwap released "Swap Bot" on Telegram.

Users can now conduct PancakeSwap transactions directly on Telegram.

2. FTM, Sonic Labs (formerly Fantom) announced that it will be officially launched in December 2024.

3/Coinbase Wallet launched USDC rewards. Wallet users can earn an annualized yield of 4.7% simply by holding USDC on the chain.

4/ CPOOL, Clearpool's Ozean is bringing invoice financing to the chain. They are working with Nexade for this.

5/ SKY, Sky Ecosystem (formerly Maker) launched USDS on Solana, using Wormhole's native token transfer for cross-chain bridging.

6/ DYDX ,dYdX launched MegaVault, users can now provide liquidity to all dYdX markets and earn fees and profit and loss (PnL).

7/ MORPHO , MorphoDAO enables transferable contracts for its token MORPHO.

8/ ETHFI , Terms Labs has launched EtherFi's liquidity vault, and users can get safe fixed income through the market-neutral USD vault supported by Veda Labs.

9/ Monad, as a fast and low-cost first layer of the Ethereum virtual machine, has launched its testnet.

10/Stride Zone launched the launch platform Echos.fun, which can be used to create AI agents with crypto wallets and X account functions.

11/Galxe has been launched on Telegram, and users can earn GG points by completing tasks.

Thank you Ripple XRP
for turning my 2 million dollars into 5 million dollars! 🙏 ​​​

Briefly talk about ADA and XRP:

1. I believe the logic for the rise is that a lot of users are pouring into CB, among the mainstream coins supported by CB spot trading that have trading volume and are not Meme, there are only Ada and Xrp, plus the narrative of improved compliance situation has contributed to the rise. Actually, there is also Hbar, but it's not considered too stable.

2. If it weren't for strong whales locking in chips, these two would not have been so stable during the bear market.

3. Playing these two coins, the fundamentals are not important; it's more about the chips and user penetration.

These two coins will not miss any round of bull market rally.

The greatest certainty in investment is that investment lacks certainty.
Only by truly accepting this can you let go of the obsession with certain answers and maintain a good mindset for investing.