橘猫_专注套利and量化
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一天赚不到1000u就是在浪费生命
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Recently testing a set of prediction market gameplay
Never Yes strategy
A Delta neutral income strategy based on prediction markets, the core logic is to systematically place passive sell orders on events that are "unlikely to occur", capturing stable income through a combination of long-tail pricing discrepancies.
Covering multiple price levels from extremely high confidence (90¢+) to medium confidence (60-80¢), forming a risk-layered income structure. Expected annualized return of 60%-80%, with high confidence levels contributing stable fundamentals, and medium confidence levels providing excess returns.
Win rate of 85%-95%, controlled maximum loss per trade, overall income curve is smooth with no significant drawdown.
The main risks are incorrect event judgment and risks at the smart contract level, with no directional market risk assumed.
Expected maximum drawdown of 5%-10%
Annualized return between 60%-80%
Ran for two months, not bad $BTC $ETH
Is anyone interested in this?
Never Yes strategy
A Delta neutral income strategy based on prediction markets, the core logic is to systematically place passive sell orders on events that are "unlikely to occur", capturing stable income through a combination of long-tail pricing discrepancies.
Covering multiple price levels from extremely high confidence (90¢+) to medium confidence (60-80¢), forming a risk-layered income structure. Expected annualized return of 60%-80%, with high confidence levels contributing stable fundamentals, and medium confidence levels providing excess returns.
Win rate of 85%-95%, controlled maximum loss per trade, overall income curve is smooth with no significant drawdown.
The main risks are incorrect event judgment and risks at the smart contract level, with no directional market risk assumed.
Expected maximum drawdown of 5%-10%
Annualized return between 60%-80%
Ran for two months, not bad $BTC $ETH
Is anyone interested in this?
PINNED
WLFI is online, and the Orange Cat Fund welcomes a harvest day
Total allocation amount: 101.42M WLFI
Unlocked: 20.28M WLFI
Remaining to be unlocked: 81.13M WLFI
Phase One Subscription: Cost $0.015 → Selling average price $0.3, 20 times return
Phase Two Subscription: Cost $0.05 → Selling average price $0.3, 6 times return
Total estimated at an average price of $0.3:
101.42M WLFI × $0.3 ≈ $30.43M
Congratulations to WLFI for entering the top market value projects, looking forward to it sparking the NEW DEFI SUMMER!
$WLFI @worldlibertyfi #wifi
👉 Follow Orange Cat Eating Meat, let's witness the next explosive point together.
Total allocation amount: 101.42M WLFI
Unlocked: 20.28M WLFI
Remaining to be unlocked: 81.13M WLFI
Phase One Subscription: Cost $0.015 → Selling average price $0.3, 20 times return
Phase Two Subscription: Cost $0.05 → Selling average price $0.3, 6 times return
Total estimated at an average price of $0.3:
101.42M WLFI × $0.3 ≈ $30.43M
Congratulations to WLFI for entering the top market value projects, looking forward to it sparking the NEW DEFI SUMMER!
$WLFI @worldlibertyfi #wifi
👉 Follow Orange Cat Eating Meat, let's witness the next explosive point together.
$币安人生
I feel like my AI system hasn't encountered the market for too long, I can't wait any longer.
Automatically opening long positions for arbitrage based on the rate, this is so dense, with a test account of 2000 USDT, I made 300 USDT, not even close to what my group friends make in a single day.
However, discussing such stable arbitrage in the square feels like it would be looked down upon.
Friends in the square are making tens of thousands of USDT a day; anyway, I think I can just stand still and earn as much as 10 delivery people, and that's enough for me.
Mainly, this method doesn't really affect your life. Enough said, I'm going to play games now.
#量化 #套利
I feel like my AI system hasn't encountered the market for too long, I can't wait any longer.
Automatically opening long positions for arbitrage based on the rate, this is so dense, with a test account of 2000 USDT, I made 300 USDT, not even close to what my group friends make in a single day.
However, discussing such stable arbitrage in the square feels like it would be looked down upon.
Friends in the square are making tens of thousands of USDT a day; anyway, I think I can just stand still and earn as much as 10 delivery people, and that's enough for me.
Mainly, this method doesn't really affect your life. Enough said, I'm going to play games now.
#量化 #套利
Most people on Polymarket are gamblers.
I treated it like a hedge fund for two months, with an annualized return of 60-80% and a win rate of 88%.
The idea is actually quite simple 👇
I treated it like a hedge fund for two months, with an annualized return of 60-80% and a win rate of 88%.
The idea is actually quite simple 👇
Recently testing a set of prediction market gameplay
Never Yes strategy
A Delta neutral income strategy based on prediction markets, the core logic is to systematically place passive sell orders on events that are "unlikely to occur", capturing stable income through a combination of long-tail pricing discrepancies.
Covering multiple price levels from extremely high confidence (90¢+) to medium confidence (60-80¢), forming a risk-layered income structure. Expected annualized return of 60%-80%, with high confidence levels contributing stable fundamentals, and medium confidence levels providing excess returns.
Win rate of 85%-95%, controlled maximum loss per trade, overall income curve is smooth with no significant drawdown.
The main risks are incorrect event judgment and risks at the smart contract level, with no directional market risk assumed.
Expected maximum drawdown of 5%-10%
Annualized return between 60%-80%
Ran for two months, not bad $BTC $ETH
Is anyone interested in this?
Never Yes strategy
A Delta neutral income strategy based on prediction markets, the core logic is to systematically place passive sell orders on events that are "unlikely to occur", capturing stable income through a combination of long-tail pricing discrepancies.
Covering multiple price levels from extremely high confidence (90¢+) to medium confidence (60-80¢), forming a risk-layered income structure. Expected annualized return of 60%-80%, with high confidence levels contributing stable fundamentals, and medium confidence levels providing excess returns.
Win rate of 85%-95%, controlled maximum loss per trade, overall income curve is smooth with no significant drawdown.
The main risks are incorrect event judgment and risks at the smart contract level, with no directional market risk assumed.
Expected maximum drawdown of 5%-10%
Annualized return between 60%-80%
Ran for two months, not bad $BTC $ETH
Is anyone interested in this?
If you don't have a HSBC account, hurry up and open one! If you don't know how, leave a message and I'll teach you how to open a HSBC account.
HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank have obtained stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong.
On April 10, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported: The Financial Commissioner has granted stablecoin issuer licenses to two institutions under the "Stablecoin Ordinance"—Dingdian Financial Technology Co., Ltd. (a joint venture by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Telecom, and the Anhe Group) and HSBC, marking a new stage in the implementation of Hong Kong's stablecoin regulatory system.
$ETH
HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank have obtained stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong.
On April 10, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported: The Financial Commissioner has granted stablecoin issuer licenses to two institutions under the "Stablecoin Ordinance"—Dingdian Financial Technology Co., Ltd. (a joint venture by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Telecom, and the Anhe Group) and HSBC, marking a new stage in the implementation of Hong Kong's stablecoin regulatory system.
$ETH
After watching the interview of Ying Ge with #易理华 , I feel a bit emotional.
Stripping away those seemingly "crazy" operations on-chain, the real @Jackyi is actually a composed and logically rigorous person.
This reminds me of his all-in on $ETH ETH in 2025. Looking back now: his macro judgment was actually flawless.
The four-year cycle has failed, the interest rate reduction cycle has restarted, stablecoins and RWA have made ETH a cornerstone asset in on-chain finance, and Wall Street has completed its layout through the channel of "US Treasury → stablecoin → ETH/L2"—this logical framework is extremely solid in Trend Research's report.
Unfortunately, he was defeated by leverage and clear cards.
Moreover, before 1011, he accurately liquidated his positions, which is extremely rare in the Chinese circle for such "unity of knowledge and action."
Regardless, I respect his unity of knowledge and action.
Then, it's time to bottom fish his holdings. $ETH
Stripping away those seemingly "crazy" operations on-chain, the real @Jackyi is actually a composed and logically rigorous person.
This reminds me of his all-in on $ETH ETH in 2025. Looking back now: his macro judgment was actually flawless.
The four-year cycle has failed, the interest rate reduction cycle has restarted, stablecoins and RWA have made ETH a cornerstone asset in on-chain finance, and Wall Street has completed its layout through the channel of "US Treasury → stablecoin → ETH/L2"—this logical framework is extremely solid in Trend Research's report.
Unfortunately, he was defeated by leverage and clear cards.
Moreover, before 1011, he accurately liquidated his positions, which is extremely rare in the Chinese circle for such "unity of knowledge and action."
Regardless, I respect his unity of knowledge and action.
Then, it's time to bottom fish his holdings. $ETH
Teacher, are you serious? Didn't everyone abandon the game?
清风BNB
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$STO
{future}(STOUSDT)
STO Unlocking bad news has come to an end! The plummet is a golden opportunity, get ready for a violent rebound!🚀
Don't be intimidated by the previous bearish candles! STO is going crazy with the news of token unlocking, having cleaned up all the floating positions. Look at the 1-hour chart, the bottom support is extremely stubborn, and the bearish strength has long since waned; this is not a collapse, but the main force digging violently!
The negative effects of unlocking have been completely digested by the market, and now is the time for institutions to quietly build positions. The huge gap above FVG is attracting prices like a magnet, and a rebound is imminent!
If you miss this epic pullback, you will miss the most certain doubling opportunity of the year. You can either enter the market with the main force now to buy at the bottom, or wait for the rise to buy at a high position!
Long position strategy: decisively enter near the current price of 0.184, stop loss at 0.178, first target at 0.199, second target above 0.22!
The wealth code has been given; whether you can turn things around depends on this moment!🔥
Expert reminder:
Currently in a period of emotional volatility after unlocking, with high volatility. It is recommended to enter in batches, strictly control positions, and ensure you can hold onto trades during fluctuations.
{future}(STOUSDT)
STO Unlocking bad news has come to an end! The plummet is a golden opportunity, get ready for a violent rebound!🚀
Don't be intimidated by the previous bearish candles! STO is going crazy with the news of token unlocking, having cleaned up all the floating positions. Look at the 1-hour chart, the bottom support is extremely stubborn, and the bearish strength has long since waned; this is not a collapse, but the main force digging violently!
The negative effects of unlocking have been completely digested by the market, and now is the time for institutions to quietly build positions. The huge gap above FVG is attracting prices like a magnet, and a rebound is imminent!
If you miss this epic pullback, you will miss the most certain doubling opportunity of the year. You can either enter the market with the main force now to buy at the bottom, or wait for the rise to buy at a high position!
Long position strategy: decisively enter near the current price of 0.184, stop loss at 0.178, first target at 0.199, second target above 0.22!
The wealth code has been given; whether you can turn things around depends on this moment!🔥
Expert reminder:
Currently in a period of emotional volatility after unlocking, with high volatility. It is recommended to enter in batches, strictly control positions, and ensure you can hold onto trades during fluctuations.
Finally understand why $STO has risen so sharply!
Everything starts from this picture
In the future, if any project wants to rise, send me 10u first
#sto #stakestone
Everything starts from this picture
In the future, if any project wants to rise, send me 10u first
#sto #stakestone
This is what I see online: What do ordinary people want to do with openclaw? The most authoritative explanation
#openclaw
#openclaw
This month, even I can only bet on the weather on polymarket
On March 30, driven by geopolitical bets and mainstream media reports, the trading volume of the prediction market in March increased by 2838% year-on-year, reaching 191 million transactions, setting a historical high. (Cointelegraph)
On March 30, driven by geopolitical bets and mainstream media reports, the trading volume of the prediction market in March increased by 2838% year-on-year, reaching 191 million transactions, setting a historical high. (Cointelegraph)
Too outrageous, is it true?
In the cyclical nature of the crypto world, when one micro-strategy is knocked down, there will be a second micro-strategy; this time, let's see who is responsible for picking up the pieces.
链研社lianyanshe
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MicroStrategy's maximum floating profit exceeded $33 billion, and this morning it fell below $60,000, which means MicroStrategy faces a paper floating loss of over $11.4 billion.
Many people are curious about how they survived the last bear market? Will this bear market lead to liquidation?
First, let's review that MicroStrategy's holding cost in the last round was $30,000. They managed to survive the bear markets of 2022 and 2023 because their approach was different from leveraged cryptocurrency trading, as they engaged in long-term debt financing.
Most of the debt ($2.2 billion) is unsecured convertible bonds, which can cross cycle and mature between 2025-2028. The most dangerous time was when a $200 million mortgage fell below $21,000, triggering a margin call notice, but at that time, MicroStrategy had 130,000 bitcoins, which could pull the liquidation line down to $3,561.
In this round, according to their financial report:
Total holdings: 713,502 BTC (Total cost $54.26 billion)
Average cost: $76,052
Core debt: Convertible bonds $8.21 billion
Preferred stock: $8.39 billion
Total leverage scale: $16.6 billion
Cash reserves: $2.25 billion
In 2025, they also raised $25.3 billion through stock issuance (ATM issuance) without the need to repay principal and interest.
From the data, MicroStrategy has almost no risk of liquidation.
1. Currently, the cash on hand is sufficient to cover the interest on current debts and preferred stock dividends for 30 months (2.5 years).
2. The 710,000 BTC is not pledged, so there is no risk of forced liquidation like in the previous round.
3. The maturity date is far away; the recent large-scale debt is due in the third quarter of 2027. Before 2027, regardless of how low the coin price drops, MicroStrategy has no legal obligation to repay the principal.
However, the biggest problem now is that although there is no liquidation risk, due to the disappearance of the premium, MicroStrategy cannot continue to finance through ATM to buy coins, interrupting the compound growth. By 2027, if the bitcoin price is below $76,000, MicroStrategy will also be unable to issue new debt to repay old debt for turnover. At that time, they might sell a small amount of bitcoin for turnover or issue a large volume of junk bonds to repay debts, but whether anyone will buy is a question.
Many people are curious about how they survived the last bear market? Will this bear market lead to liquidation?
First, let's review that MicroStrategy's holding cost in the last round was $30,000. They managed to survive the bear markets of 2022 and 2023 because their approach was different from leveraged cryptocurrency trading, as they engaged in long-term debt financing.
Most of the debt ($2.2 billion) is unsecured convertible bonds, which can cross cycle and mature between 2025-2028. The most dangerous time was when a $200 million mortgage fell below $21,000, triggering a margin call notice, but at that time, MicroStrategy had 130,000 bitcoins, which could pull the liquidation line down to $3,561.
In this round, according to their financial report:
Total holdings: 713,502 BTC (Total cost $54.26 billion)
Average cost: $76,052
Core debt: Convertible bonds $8.21 billion
Preferred stock: $8.39 billion
Total leverage scale: $16.6 billion
Cash reserves: $2.25 billion
In 2025, they also raised $25.3 billion through stock issuance (ATM issuance) without the need to repay principal and interest.
From the data, MicroStrategy has almost no risk of liquidation.
1. Currently, the cash on hand is sufficient to cover the interest on current debts and preferred stock dividends for 30 months (2.5 years).
2. The 710,000 BTC is not pledged, so there is no risk of forced liquidation like in the previous round.
3. The maturity date is far away; the recent large-scale debt is due in the third quarter of 2027. Before 2027, regardless of how low the coin price drops, MicroStrategy has no legal obligation to repay the principal.
However, the biggest problem now is that although there is no liquidation risk, due to the disappearance of the premium, MicroStrategy cannot continue to finance through ATM to buy coins, interrupting the compound growth. By 2027, if the bitcoin price is below $76,000, MicroStrategy will also be unable to issue new debt to repay old debt for turnover. At that time, they might sell a small amount of bitcoin for turnover or issue a large volume of junk bonds to repay debts, but whether anyone will buy is a question.
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