Bitcoin has been rebounding since yesterday, but the strength of the rebound is not very strong. It is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate and adjust to repeatedly verify the bottom support position. Then after July, there will be an overall improvement.
The performance of copycats has been good in the past two days, especially meme, and AI and other sectors, which everyone can pay special attention to.
In July, there will still be a rebound, but the amplitude may not be too large. If there is a rebound, the market can stabilize around 66,000, and there will be a small wave of cottage industry. We can do some swing operations. If that situation really happens, it will be a good opportunity for us to participate in the spot market.
From August to October, around the time of the US presidential election, even if there is no interest rate cut in September, a rate cut is inevitable after the election in November.
In terms of emotions, the current market sentiment has changed from the bull market of the past few months to the bear market. Many of the previous bullish logics have been falsified, and some bearish logics have gradually become the mainstream way of thinking and are popular. For example, as we mentioned in the previous article, after one or two months of fermentation, such content will affect the thinking of global players participating in the cryptocurrency circle. This process of change is subtle, and many people will be affected to sell and leave the market.
As the market trend turns towards a bear market, there will be more and more ghost stories, and more and more people will be forced to leave the market. When most people leave, at some moment in the next few months, the market will reverse sharply. This kind of thing has happened many times in the past. There is nothing new in the currency circle. It's the same thing over and over again.
For us, just need to wait patiently. The big money is not made in buying and selling, but in waiting. It is easy to buy, but it is difficult to be patient and not buy.
Since the market recovery at the end of last year, Ethereum's price performance has always lagged behind Bitcoin and Solana, which is relatively disappointing for long-term ETH holders. We all understand the feelings of Ethereum holders who have watched other ecosystem users partying in the past few months while crying alone with full ETH warehouses. However, the listing of Ethereum spot ETF may reverse this predicament!
What is the progress of Ethereum spot ETF?
On May 24 this year, the SEC officially approved the 19b-4 application documents for Ethereum spot ETFs from eight institutions, allowing institutions to list Ethereum spot ETFs on various exchanges in the United States. However, the applicant institutions cannot start trading until they obtain the required S-1 registration statement approval.
Simply put, the Ethereum spot ETF has been approved and its listing is a foregone conclusion, but the entire process has not yet been completed and it is only a matter of time before it is opened for trading.
When can you start buying and selling Ethereum spot ETF: at the earliest in early July and at the latest in late September.
Bloomberg, which has been paying close attention to cryptocurrency ETFs, reported that we may get the latest progress on the Ethereum spot ETF on July 2. According to the revision feedback given by the SEC to various institutions, there may not be many parts that need to be adjusted, so it is possible to get news of approval for listing at any time.
According to the recent remarks made by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler at a Senate Appropriations Committee subcommittee hearing, the Ethereum spot ETF should complete all preparation procedures and be approved for listing before the end of this "summer".
That is to say, the Ethereum spot ETF could be opened for trading on the U.S. stock market by September this year at the latest.
How high can ETH rise after the Ethereum spot ETF is listed?
After the Ethereum spot ETF is listed, it will be equivalent to providing a legal and regulated investment channel for Ethereum. Funds from traditional financial institutions and investors can flow into the market in a way that is considered relatively safe, which may have the opportunity to drive up the price of Ethereum.
On the other hand, with regulatory guarantees, coupled with the liquidity and transparency of ETFs, the market’s trust and visibility in Ethereum will be enhanced. In particular, the characteristics of Ethereum itself and on-chain DeFi that can use staking to obtain additional income may further attract more investors who are not satisfied with the traditional market.
It is estimated that in the first five months of the Ethereum spot ETF's listing, capital inflows will be between US$3 billion and US$4.8 billion, showing strong market demand.
This estimate is based on ETH AUM's relative global market share of 28% versus BTC, and CME's ETH OI versus BTC's current 23%. Comparing these weights to cumulative spot BTC ETF inflows of $13.8 billion gives ETH net inflows ranging between $3.1 billion and $4.8 billion. Our research suggests that a newly launched US ETF would absorb 750,000 to 1,000,000 ETH, equivalent to 0.65-0.85% of ETH's circulating supply.
More reports predict that Ethereum spot ETFs will be slightly less attractive than Bitcoin, but may still see $3 billion in net inflows in 2024, but if the approved version allows staking, this figure may exceed $6 billion.
Various signs indicate that although Ethereum's growth has been lower than Bitcoin's since the beginning of this year, its performance in the second half of the year has the opportunity to outperform Bitcoin after the spot ETF is opened for trading.
