Gold, when will it start unilaterally?

From the current time, the fundamentals need to wait for the minutes of the Fed's June meeting in early July. The Fed officials were "hawkish" everywhere two days ago, which led to the market's expectations of interest rate cuts cooling down, which also became one of the reasons for the decline in gold.

As Japan sells off US bonds, the confidence of its central bank to increase its holdings of US bonds will also weaken, putting pressure directly on the Fed. Whether US inflation will continue to cool down in June has become a key indicator for the market to bet on interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.

I expect that it will take until July, and it is not even ruled out that it will be around October. In October last year, gold continued to fall for nine consecutive days. After that, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict served as a driving force, and gold rose from US$1,840 to above US$2,000.

This time, it is difficult to form a big breakthrough in the short term. This week is the last week of June and the closing time of the monthly line. April and May closed with long upper shadows, indicating that there is a lot of selling pressure from above. It is also difficult to promote a new round of increases. Don't be too optimistic in the short term.

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