On June 19, the total crypto market value was $2.38 trillion, down 5.92% from the beginning of the month. BTC's market value accounted for 53.92%, up slightly from 52.66% at the beginning of the month. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is on a downward trend and is currently at a neutral level.

The combined market capitalization of Bitcoin and Ethereum is down 3.5% from the beginning of the month, while Altcoins are down 15%.

According to the rules of the previous two Bitcoin halvings, there is a 12-18 month interval between the halving time and the peak of the bull market. The rise is not achieved overnight, but is accompanied by fluctuations and periodic declines. This halving will occur on April 20, 2024, and the market is expected to start to improve by the end of 2024.

Although net inflows this year are stronger than last year, they are still significantly lower than during the 2021/2022 bull market, and capital inflows are not enough to support the arrival of the bull market. The crypto market has seen net inflows of $12 billion so far this year. Among them, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $16 billion. Exchange reserves have fallen by about 220,000 bitcoins ($13 billion) since January, suggesting that most inflows into spot ETFs are actually moves from existing digital wallets rather than new money.

Macro-monetary environment

After the announcement of lower-than-expected CPI at 20:30 on the evening of June 12, the crypto market generally rose for a few hours. At 2:00 a.m. on June 13, at the FOMC meeting, the Fed unexpectedly used a dot plot to indicate that it would only cut interest rates once this year, down from three times in March. The crypto market then began to weaken.

The largest outflow of funds since March 22, a total of $600 million (week number, by 6/15), of which Bitcoin outflow amounted to $621 million, and ETH, LIDO and XRP funds showed a small inflow. According to sosovalue data, BTC spot ETF has been outflowing every day since June 13.

Hot spots and narratives in this bull market

Combining AI and Crypto

Nvidia estimates that there are more than 40K companies worldwide using GPUs for AI and accelerated computing, with a developer community of more than 4 million people. Looking ahead, the global AI market is expected to grow from $515 billion in 2023 to $2.74 trillion in 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 20.4%. Meanwhile, the GPU market is expected to reach $400 billion by 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 25%.

It is predicted that AI + Crypto will unlock a huge market of 20 trillion US dollars. As a track that is strongly bound to the concept of AI, the decentralized computing network is one of the vertical fields in the crypto field that is most likely to gain real demand.

Meme Narratives

Meme has gradually been accepted by the mainstream crypto market, and more and more people agree that consensus is value and existence is reasonable.

Institutional investors’ allocation to meme coins has grown by more than 300% this year, peaking at nearly $300 million in April, with DOGE, SHIB, and BONK being the current popular choices.

Binance has launched several Meme coins, including PEPE, WIF, and BOME, further providing sufficient liquidity for Meme and triggering investors' enthusiasm for Meme coins.

Symbols have great cohesive power. Meme, as a universal language, enables the community to quickly reach consensus and form a simple and effective communication path. In addition, many celebrities have begun to get involved in Memecoin, which has enhanced the spread of Meme, similar to the purchase and holding of NFT collections by celebrities in the previous cycle.

Pump has issued more than 1 million memes, and its trading volume has reached $3.6 billion, with new users continuing to grow. With the support of the issuing platform, Meme has become a minimalist fundraising mechanism and listing strategy.

The launch date of the Ethereum spot ETF may be brought forward to July 4. The reason is that the SEC staff sent comments on the S-1 to the issuer last week, and the comments were brief and there were no major issues. They required the revision to be completed and submitted before this Friday (June 21).

Since BTC price broke through ATH in March, it has not been able to maintain a clear upward momentum. With the market's pessimism about the US dollar interest rate cut and the lack of mainstream narrative in the market, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a phased adjustment. The best strategy in the short term is to wait patiently. In the long run, I believe that the overall bull market will come in late 2024 to 2025.

It is expected that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved for listing as early as July 4, which is good for market sentiment and the Ethereum ecosystem. The S-1 document required for the Ethereum spot ETF review has received feedback from the SEC and is required to be modified and submitted before June 21 (this Friday).

Instead of waiting for the bull market to come, it is better to plan some Ethereum ecological projects now. Sun Ge has been buying Ethereum, either to try to get the ETF approved, or to get some inside information. Although Sun Ge is a bit greedy, his ability to make money cannot be doubted. You can pay more attention to the Ethereum ecosystem in the near future.

Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together