June 24 Macro Data Forecast Interpretation: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in June Recommended Reading: ★★
The Dallas Fed is an indicator of economic data for Texas, USA. Texas's total economic output in 2024 is 2.4 trillion, accounting for 9% of the US GDP, which is not low. Therefore, paying attention to the economic activities in Texas will help us understand the economic profile of the United States.
Of course, the data is for June, and the data weight is low, which has a poor impact on the market. I only use it as a record and reference. Those who are not interested can ignore it.
The previous value of the index was -19.4, and the expectation was -15. The data expected economic activity to recover.
The business activity index in Texas gradually rebounded month by month after it was once underestimated in 2024. However, due to the turmoil in Texas in April, business activities were hindered. The data in May fell directly to -19.4 again. This month, it is expected that economic activities will gradually accelerate recovery.
We can notice that Texas' economic activity index has always been a negative number below the 0 axis, which means that Texas' economy has actually been in the recovery stage. Only when the value returns to above the 0 axis will economic activity grow.
We can see from past data that Texas' economic activity index has fallen below the 0 axis since April 2022. You can study the data yourself to see what happened during this period.
However, it can be understood that Texas is a major energy export state in the United States. At the same time, technology, agriculture, and manufacturing all occupy a large share in the United States. Texas has been in the recovery stage since April 2022 and has not returned to positive growth so far. However, the overall economic data of the United States has reached the overheating stage. This also indirectly shows that it is not agriculture, manufacturing and other real economies that support the US economy, but more rely on finance and financial derivatives.
Finance is a field that constantly generates huge costs and constantly passes them on. Therefore, in a strict sense, the fewer people who are exposed to the financial field, the more groups that accept the transfer of financial costs. So, when an economic empire supported by finance and financial derivatives generates financial costs, who will pay for it?
