The market seems to be experiencing a slight pick-up, but at this moment, I still want to bring you some calm thoughts.

Regarding the BTC price on the 21st, we can predict that it is likely to approach the 67,000 level, but this is not due to a strong rebound, but more affected by the delivery of large single options. I have warned everyone before that there is a risk of falling on the 28th. The reason is that a put option expired on that day, and its pain point price was around 55,000. However, as market dynamics evolved, the long-short showdown in this option changed significantly, with the bulls clearly gaining the upper hand. However, it is worth noting that this trend is still likely to repeat before delivery, and we cannot conclude that the bullish strength will be maintained on the 28th.

Although I am personally trapped by the market and hope that the market will rise steadily, I have to say that I am cautious about a V-shaped reversal. If the market can remain relatively stable before the end of the month, then we should pay special attention to the Ether ETF incident on July 2. Historical experience tells us that the market experienced a flash crash when ETFs were approaching, and then reached a high point driven by FOMO sentiment, but the subsequent decline trapped all the chasers.

A similar situation is very likely to occur for Ethereum after the ETF is approved. On the day the ETF is approved, the market may face huge selling pressure as a large number of short-term profit makers choose to leave the market. However, ETF institutions will not immediately pour in a large amount of funds, which may lead to a unilateral downward trend in the market.

I advise everyone to remain vigilant. If there is no flash crash in the market between the 22nd and 28th, then July 2nd may be an important turning point. When a top-and-pin pattern appears on the 1-hour chart, we should consider opening a short position, and the stop-loss position can be set at the tip price or within a 1% range.

These analyzes of mine are not intended to scare you, but I hope to provide you with some useful market references. If it goes as I expect, the market may provide us with a relatively low entry point in the second half of 2024 after undergoing a deep adjustment. At that time, spot investors who choose long-term holdings are recommended to target September 25.

I hope everyone can prepare in advance and research which currencies are worth holding for the long term.I wish everyone can achieve their wealth goals during this round of market fluctuations.