When will the consolidation end? Despite the widespread pessimism and anger, BTC is only 15% below its high.
"The darkness before dawn, the re-accumulation in the middle of the cycle, and the emergence of the cycle high."
Monthly chart
We reached the all-time high of the previous cycle in month 16, while the previous cycle took more than two years. We are now in the third month of sideways trading.
Historically, BTC has paused after reaching its all-time high before reaching its final cycle peak. A longer period of sideways trading means the next rally will be healthier and stronger.
Weekly chart
It has now been consolidating for 14 weeks following the ETF news, and is down 12% from its highs. Such volatility is expected after the rally that nearly doubled from its recent lows in January 2024.
It is worth noting that the 7-week cycle low in January was 38,000 (a price doubling).
Why didn’t the market go higher?
Whales in the previous cycle sold near 60,000
Concerns about potential monthly doubling top
GBTC outflows (selling pressure)
Transfer from on-chain assets to ETF assets
ETF expectations are priced in early
Q4 2023 rally driven by ETF hype
When will the shock end?
Stay patient, it has risen 3 times since September 2023 and needs to pull back to accumulate momentum.
Similar to the doubling post-cycle low in the first quarter of 2023, a broad base formation preceded the fourth quarter’s uptick.
The volatility may continue until July or August, completing the bottoming process.
When might the market peak?
Based on the 4-year cycle, the peak may still be a long way off. Past cycles have typically taken 33-35 months from low to high.
According to this model, October 2025 is possible (16-17 months away).
The large gap between the 10-month moving average and price suggests that a pullback may be needed.
This bull run feels tough for many, chasing speculative altcoins (competition among investors is fierce). Like previous cycles, wait for a 30-35% drop and buy at the highs after missing out.
Possible trends
We may see the next local bottom soon, possibly towards the end of the month.
Bullish signs include higher lows and well above the January 2024 low, showing strength in the market.
After this local bottom, one scenario is to sweep it and retake the highs.
The second possible scenario is a continuation of the volatile price trend.
This phase may last until September, forming a local bottom but not breaking through the historical highs.
The third possibility is another 30% drop, which has been typical in past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but now with ETFs, which is an important difference.
Market sentiment is shifting
After the April surge, the market sentiment is positive again. On-chain data shows that coins are shifting towards long-term holders. As new holders accumulate in the higher range, a solid base is forming. Dips could be buying opportunities.
Watch for potential buying opportunities in BTC below 60,000. Those who are underweight can consider adding positions during this period of volatility.
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