The price of BTC yesterday clearly tested the volume level of $64,120, and today it stands still. It's a holiday in the USA.
From bullish signals - although yesterday's candle is red, it closed with a bullish shadow. Having also tested the 0.5 level according to Fibbonacci.
Of the bearish signals - on the rise today, the price did not break through the downward trend since May 21 and did not reach the volume level of $65,892, locked between these two levels. Not to mention the fact that I didn’t go to test the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently at $66,825). This weakness of buyers makes us think that before the rebound and/or reversal (this expectation is valid for us) we will see an update of the local loy. And if this happens, the goal will be either to create a “Double Bottom” and re-test $64,120, or the next volume level, $62,987. We estimate this level as the last one before a reversal even in the most bearish scenario.
There is also a chance of a reversal from the current ones, but for it in the next 24 hours you need to gain a foothold above the volume level of $65,892, or better yet, the Fibonacci level of 0.618 (rate of $66,148). Accordingly, if this does not happen, we will wait for bearish signals to be processed.
In case of further growth, the important range now is $66,800-$67,400. There is a concentrated pool of resistances:
- EMA 50 day TF (now at $66,825),
- volume level $67,088,
- global upward trend from December 5, 2023 (indicated by a dotted line),
- local downward trend since June 7 of this year (indicated by a solid line).
A breakout of this pool is still a rebound, not a reversal. The chance of the rebound turning into a reversal will be decided at the volume level of $68,232. Approximately there is level 0.5 on the local Fibonacci from the high on June 7 to the low on June 18.
A consolidation above the EMA of the 50 day TF and this volume level would be the first really good signal for the bulls. After it, the next important resistance would be a breakdown of the volume and psychological (ATH of the last cycle) level of $69,000.
Direct confirmation of the reversal and the start of working out the fifth wave in the global structure from November 2022 - a breakdown of the downward trend from March 14. Which is now passing through the volume level of $69,740. This is the ATH update script.
