What stage is BTC in now?

From October last year to January 11, when BTCETF was approved, the entire rise was driven by ETF expectations.

After that, the positive news was realized and there was a correction; then until March, the large-scale net inflow of funds from ETFs pushed BTC to a new high.

After March, the positive news of ETFs basically came to an end, and the market began to focus on interest rate cuts. The CPI data for March came out, which hit the market's confidence and began to adjust back to $57,000.

Entering June, the market's previous expectation of a rate cut in July fell through again, so the entire currency market was hit again.

As the ancients said, one effort will lead to another, and then another will lead to another!

After the expectation of a rate cut was repeatedly hit, the market finally lost confidence completely. However, since BTC is supported by ETFs, it did not fall too much. Instead, the previously popular altcoins and MEME coins plummeted!

I personally think that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September. Before that, there is only the last interest rate meeting at the end of July.

According to past practice, the market usually reverses before the policy, so I guess the market will bottom out at the end of June or early July, and then start to fluctuate upward, waiting for the emergence of various data to further confirm the interest rate cut, and finally announce the start of the interest rate cut.

In addition, I think the market may also experience a correction once the interest rate cut is officially announced.

Of course, it is not ruled out that a black swan will appear before the interest rate cut, but even if a black swan appears, it will not be at the level of 3.18.

If you firmly believe that there will be a bull market after the interest rate cut, then every decline is a good opportunity to increase your position!

Control the rhythm. In this cycle, there may no longer be a black swan like the level of 3.18 in 2020. It is more likely to exchange space for events, just like the second and third quarters of 2023.

Therefore, everyone should have firm confidence, control the rhythm, and believe that the clock will usher in the dawn!

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