The recent market has not seen a big correction, and it is mainly volatile. However, the cottage industry has been suffering from continuous high shipments. The declines have given people sweetness time and time again, and they have been quietly castrated without anyone noticing. Looking back at the past ten days of major fluctuations:
June 4, US JOLTs job vacancies - slightly positive; June 5, US ADP employment - positive; June 5, Bank of Canada's first rate cut - slightly positive; June 6, initial and continuing jobless claims - slightly positive; June 6, ECB's first rate cut - positive; June 7, US non-farm payrolls - negative; June 7, US unemployment rate - slightly positive; June 12, US May CPI - big positive; June 12, Fed meeting dot plot - big negative; Powell's speech was hawkish; June 13, US May PPI monthly rate - positive;
From this, we can see that the trend of BTC is completely controlled by these macro data; on June 6, it peaked at 71,700, and then faced negative news, breaking down and fluctuating downward; while the S&P and Nasdaq ignored the negative news and set new highs; a big negative news of fake non-agricultural data and the Fed's dot plot showing that there was only one interest rate cut this year made BTC shaky; if yesterday's CPI was negative, I believe BTC would have returned to 60,000 now. BTC will not be able to stand up as long as the Fed does not cut interest rates and release water! So the most critical thing is to cut interest rates, so when will the interest rates be cut?
This is hard to guess, we can only express our own opinions. Personally, I think it will not be later than the November election.
There are political factors involved. In fact, the previous Ethereum spot ETF was approved by the SEC as a compromise to politics, and it is also related to the election. Some people would say that the Fed is so tough and hard-mouthed, how could it cut interest rates in advance? I can only say that anyone would change an unfavorable situation for their own interests, even if it is inappropriate and their careers are not guaranteed, so what is the point? Being hard-mouthed is inertia and a means. Even if the interest rate is cut next month, the Fed will still be hard-mouthed this month, and will still be hard-mouthed when the interest rate is cut. Therefore, I personally think that a rate cut is very likely to be in July-September, and September is more reasonable.
Many people are now doubting that the bull market is about to end, because they are being tortured by the market and are going crazy. The more pessimistic voices there are, the healthier the main force is washing here.
Bitcoin is now in the final consolidation stage. The monthly line has crossed several lines. It is consolidating near the new high to wash out the profit-taking and provide support for the next wave of rise. The maximum correction is 60,000, which may not be reached. This phenomenon has occurred in the 17-year bull market when Bitcoin was 6,000 US dollars and before the second wave of the main rise in 2020, when Bitcoin was around 10,000. (The consolidation around 10,000 lasted for 6 months)
Moreover, the siphon effect of Bitcoin is still there, and the hot spots of the altcoins are still there, but they are delayed in time as the cycle changes. Especially now that there are so many leeks and so many currencies, the main players are also waiting through the wash to take advantage of the momentum. (The indicators of the altcoins for Bitcoin are currently at the bottom, pointing to the eve of the outbreak)
The current situation is a typical bull market, with a period of rise and then a period of sidewaysness, especially for copycats. In the bull market, they take three steps forward, three steps back, and then run six steps. The time for copycats to explode is actually very short. The six steps are in the last 1 to 2 months of the bull market, and then the whole battle is over.
