BTC closed yesterday's daily candle above the volume level of $67,088 and the EMA of the 50 day TF. Moreover, the price is currently above the 0.5 Fibonacci level of yesterday’s daily candle. Yesterday's candle closed with a bullish shadow below.
But the current rebound is still too weak to talk about a reversal. You need to consolidate at least above the volume level of $68,232 (aka the 0.618 Fibonacci level on yesterday’s candle). And ideally, consolidate above the volumetric and psychological level of $69,000. EMA 50 of the four-hour TF is currently taking place around the same place. It has been impossible to return above this level since June 7th.
For now, the downward structure on the daily TF remains. And if the trend continues, we may see a reversal only on June 15-16. On the four-hour time frame, a break into the ascending structure occurred, and through bullish engulfing. But without a breakdown of the EMA 50 of the four-hour TF, it is only a rebound.
There is no priority scenario for us now; the “cut” in the fourth wave continues. But there are guidelines:
- As long as the price is above the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently at the volume level of $67,088) - you can count on at least a range, or optimistically - on a reversal.
- Until the price consolidates above the volume and psychological level of $69,000, there is a threat of a quick end to the rebound and a continuation of the correction.
- Until the price breaks through the downward trend from ATH on March 14 (another unsuccessful attempt to break through on June 10 resulted in an impulse correction on June 10-11 by -5.9%) - we cannot talk about going to a new ATH.
We are expecting data on consumer inflation in the US in just over an hour. And then in the evening - the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and Jerome Powell's speech. The positions need to be secured; it obviously won’t be possible without “helicopters!”
