1. Macro Market Analysis

Market sentiment index: 75 (no change compared to last week)

Comprehensive view: We still believe that the BTC price faces great resistance at 72,000, but it is still in a state of increasing long positions and may break out at any time. It is expected to surge after the release of non-farm data on Friday (meeting expectations or better). We need to pay special attention to whether it is a false breakthrough (whether it can be sustained after the increase in volume).

Possible causes include:

  • The interest rate decision will be announced next week, and the market is about to enter a turning point;

  • This week's non-farm payrolls data will also drive the market further upward;

  • The U.S. stock market fluctuated slightly, which was a correction after a big rise and was generally healthy;

  • Canada's interest rate cut has become a model, and the market has high expectations for interest rate cuts;

  • The U.S. stock market performed well, with significant gains;

First, let’s take a look at our specific analysis at the macro level.

1. BTC market analysis

Pay attention to the release of non-agricultural data this Friday. If the data meets expectations, there may be a surge. After stabilizing at 72,000, it is expected to hit 78,000.

Source: BTC daily trend (Tradingview)

2. Federal Reserve Data and Macro Liquidity

Recently, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow down the reduction of its balance sheet starting in June, reducing the pace of reducing U.S. Treasury bonds from $60 billion per month to $25 billion, and maintaining the pace of reducing mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion per month. This can be seen as a gradual easing of monetary policy. Although it is not equivalent to expanding the balance sheet, it means reducing the speed of fund recovery, which will help keep funds in the market sufficient and offset the liquidity tightening effect brought about by high interest rates.

USD liquidity index = Fed’s balance sheet − Fed’s reverse repurchase agreement − Fed’s Treasury General Account balance (TGA)

Recently, the liquidity of the US dollar has shown an upward trend, although there has been no substantial major turn. Market sentiment and expectations have been stimulated, and coupled with the good performance of Nvidia's financial report data, the expectations for AI have mobilized sentiment and stimulated the market to rise, and risk assets including BTC have also risen accordingly.

Source: Custom indicator chart (Tradingview)

The Fed affects the money supply and interest rate levels by adjusting its balance sheet to achieve its monetary policy goals. Balance sheet expansion and contraction are measures taken by the Fed at different stages of the economic cycle. Currently, the Fed is slowing down the pace of balance sheet contraction. This gradual easing policy will help keep the market funds ample and offset the liquidity tightening effect brought about by high interest rates. Future market performance, especially risky assets (such as BTC), will continue to be affected by the Fed's monetary policy.

3. Market changes

As expected, Nasdaq rose first, showing that the market's future trend is relatively optimistic and the expectation of interest rate cuts is relatively strong. If the trend can continue, it will lead BTC to rise for the second time.

Source: Nasdaq 100 daily chart (Tradingview)

4. Fund Inflow/Outflow

Source: BTC spot ETF net inflow and outflow (Coinglass)

There is a large net inflow at present, but the price has not risen as expected. There are too many profit-taking chips at 72,000 and too much risk-averse funds. We need to wait for data confirmation to stabilize market confidence.

Source: BTC ETF trading volume (Coinglass)

The trading volume did not show a high level like the net inflow data, so it is judged that long positions have increased significantly.

2. Interpretation and judgment of cryptocurrency market trends

Last week's market review

The total amount of stablecoins on the funding side remains sideways, but the ETF continues to have net inflows and the contract rates are stable. While the trading volume has not increased, the amount of open contracts has increased. The contract market indicates that some funds have begun to gamble in advance; the on-chain data lacks characteristics.

Market forecast for next week

During this cycle, the BTC market went sideways, then rose to 72,000, and then fell back to 69,000. After last week, the market entered a short sideways phase, and then with the release of various small data in the United States from Monday to Wednesday, and the interest rate cuts in Canada, Denmark and Europe, the market was about to enter a rate cut cycle. The market began to break upward, and then peaked before the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations on Friday night. After the data was released, the market fell back by 3,000 points.

There will be a lot of important data released next week, which are related to the future direction of major asset classes. The short-term K-line technical guidance is of little significance, but it should be noted that ETH and altcoins are currently dragging down the market, so be careful to avoid them.

1. USDC & USDT Stablecoin Circulation

On June 8, the number of stablecoins was 144.6176 billion (144.2609 billion in the previous period). This week, 356.7 million stablecoins were issued. From the graph, it can be seen that the overall trend is flat compared with the previous period. The net inflow of funds in the past 6 trading days of ETFs is 1.878 billion. ETFs have recently become the main channel for external funds to enter. According to the data on June 7, the total assets of US ETFs have accounted for 4.47% of the total market value of BTC.

Source:Glassnode

2. USDC & USDT OTC discounts and premiums

The over-the-counter premium has also been in a sideways state this week. Combined with the issuance data of stablecoins, the capital side of other varieties in the market except BTC is still relatively tight.

Source:okx

3. Contract Market Data - Perpetual Contract Funding Rate

The funding rate and sentiment of the futures market are stable, which also shows that the decline on June 8 was not caused by the high leverage of futures. The contract trading volume has not increased this cycle, but it is interesting that the open interest of BTC contracts has increased (in BTC units), reaching the peak level of the high point in March. There is already capital in the market that has bet on the direction in advance.

Source:Glassnode

Source:Glassnode

4. BTC on-chain address data

Compared with the obvious changes in the address data of the previous period, there is no obvious change in the on-chain address data and the address distribution of each holding range in this period, so only one address with a holding amount greater than 1000 is displayed.

Source:Glassnode

The most obvious change in the on-chain chips during this cycle is that short-term chips fluctuate with market fluctuations, and chips accounting for 12.38% of the total value are accumulated in the range of 66254-70671, forming a wide range of entities in this range. A wide range of entities usually means gambling, and the price has a thick boundary.

Source:Glassnode

5. Daily and four-hour technical analysis of the past week

In general, the fundamental data in this period do not have any obvious outliers that can provide guidance, and lack much to interpret, but the continued net inflows of ETFs and the number of open futures contracts are worth noting.

In the last issue, we mentioned that from the current structure, the technical side may be in a state of confrontation between bulls and bears. From a purely technical point of view, it is difficult for this pattern to break out of the sideways trend directly upward or directly downward in the short term relying on its own strength. Unless it goes sideways for more than a week, there is a high probability that it will rise sharply before weakening, or fall sharply before strengthening.

During this cycle, the BTC market went sideways and then rose to 72,000, and then fell back to 69,000. First, after last week, the market entered a short sideways phase. Then, with the release of various small data in the United States from Monday to Wednesday and the interest rate cuts in Canada, Denmark and Europe, the market was about to enter a rate cut cycle. The market began to break upward, and then peaked before the non-agricultural employment population exceeded expectations on Friday night. After the data was released, the market fell back by 3,000 points. From the K-line analysis alone, the BTC market had resistance when it reached the previous 72,000. It is normal to be blocked at this position, but the disadvantage at that time was that ETH did not have an obvious upward attack and was a drag. In the early stage of the altcoin market, due to the sideways market, various hot spots still performed in turn, and the total market value kept up with the market, but during the decline on Saturday, the decline was large and it was still relatively fragile.

The decline on Friday night and Saturday, as well as the 30-day Pearson correlation coefficient analysis of BTC, Nasdaq, and gold all show that BTC has recently fluctuated with the release of macro data, and lacks endogenous power (it may also be a critical transition period for the current macro). Then the CPI on the 12th, the PPI and unemployment benefits on the 13th, the interest rate meeting on the 13th + Powell's speech, the market structure and K-line analysis may be a bit decoupled, so if it is purely technical, it may lack guidance.

Source:Tradingview

Source:Tradingview

3. Social media public opinion trends

1. Sorting out hotly discussed keywords and events

WolfDAO summary: Keywords of this week's hot events

Biggest Hits: Meme

  • Related to Iggy Azalea’s Meme Token $MOTHER, social media is buzzing about celebrity memes;

  • Solana-based Memecoin $GME (GameStop) surges 300% following the return of Roaring Kitty, who (Keith Gill) invested heavily in $GME, causing the GME token and market excitement to surge;

  • “coinexama (Ask Me Anything)” is frequently used in discussions related to meme coins and AI-driven cryptocurrencies on social platforms such as Telegram.

  • Hulk Hogan launches his own meme coin, $HULK. People are watching and discussing this coin and its impact on the market.

Global policy volatility

  • U.S. President Joe Biden vetoed SAB 121, a regulatory measure related to accounting practices, which is considered one of the necessary standards for cryptocurrency innovation.

  • "berkshire", a technical failure occurred at the New York Stock Exchange, which mistakenly showed that Berkshire Hathaway's stock price fell by 99%, sparking discussion.

  • Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission approves its first spot Bitcoin ETF.

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This rate cut is significant because it is the first rate cut by the ECB since 2019.

Hot Projects & Important Events

  • Jasmy has seen a nice price drop this week, but is considered to be a possible case of price gouging and potential profit taking.

  • TON tokens cannot be withdrawn, Telegram wallets are blocked, and users are looking for solutions to restore their wallets;

  • A game simulator for Hamster Kombat is being widely circulated, and the game plans to launch its ecosystem on the TON network.

  • Binance announced that it would delist WAVES tokens as well as other tokens such as OMG and XEM on June 17, which led to a drop in the price of project tokens to a certain extent;

  • Robinhood is acquiring cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp for $200 million, an acquisition aimed at expanding Robinhood’s global cryptocurrency footprint and launching new institutional services. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2025, according to sources.

2. This week's hot topics

WolfDAO summary: This week's popular public opinion projects

WolfDAO summary: Interpretation of this week's popular public opinion projects

3. Popular tracks

Data performance of each track Source: Coinglass

From the track data performance of Coinglass, excluding comprehensive large-cap tracks such as Ethereum ecology, smart contracts and L1, the leading tracks are games, metaverse and AI tracks

  • Gaming sector: Despite a slight price drop (-0.43%) over the 7-day period, it still showed significant volume growth (+74.41%). This may indicate that the market's interest in the gaming track is rising and there may be more speculation.

  • “NOT” leads with $304.05 million in Open Interest, followed by “1000FLOKI” and “GALA” with $164.09 million and $130.93 million respectively. NOT has recently attracted great market attention, showing great market participation and capital investment.

  • From the data summary of Coingecko, it can be seen that in addition to the high attention of game platforms, Meme is still the focus of market attention. Among them, GME, as a celebrity-driven Meme, was affected by the activity of Roaring Kitty on Twitter and Reddit. Its Meme of the same name rose by 606.4% in 7 days, and other celebrity Memes such as Caitlyn Jenner's $Jenner and Iggy Azalea's Meme also rose sharply. Brett, which is deployed on the Base chain and MUMU on the Solana chain, which are homologous to Pepe, also achieved a high increase in 7 days, indicating the endurance and community popularity of Pepe IP.

4. Popular project recommendations

Project 1: MOTHER IGGY (Meme + celebrity effect)

Mother is a meme project launched on May 28 by IGGY AZALEA, an American female rapper with 7.6 million fans on X, with the slogan "Don't disappoint your mother". The project was released on Solana and landed on Bitget two days ago. It is currently the most popular celebrity meme.

Source：CoinCarp

According to CoinCarp data, the current total number of Mother currency holding addresses is 25,559, of which the top 10 addresses hold 20% of the coins, and the top 100 addresses hold 52% of the coins. Considering Mother's market value of less than 200 million, this degree of currency dispersion is very good.

Judging from the comprehensive trading volume and the Top traders section on Dexscreener, Mother has experienced very frequent turnover. Most early traders have already made profits. Currently, the holding costs of small and medium-sized investors are generally high, and this group of people will be an important force in price support.

The main drivers of price increases

  • Celebrity effect: The orders from big Vs attracted enough attention in the early stage. Compared with other grassroots memes, memes with celebrity buffs have their own traffic, and often can see a big wave of pull-ups in the early stage of project sales, thereby further attracting more investors. Mother is not the first celebrity meme. The previous Jenner and Rich The Kid all follow the same logic.

  • Continuous support: IGGY's active marketing on X. Compared with other celebrity memes, Mother did not fall into the dilemma of "peaking at the opening" largely because of IGGY's active marketing. IGGY's tweets are all about MOTHER. From the token issuance to now, IGGY has published more than 2,000 posts about MOTHER. Such a positive attitude has undoubtedly attracted a large number of investors and fans compared to those celebrity memes that ran away after a short period of time.

  • Large investors buy at the bottom: In the first few days of the project, most paper hands were washed out due to FUD. Mother was exposed to have a large number of insider trading shortly after the project was launched. At the same time, some crypto celebrities also accused celebrity memes, the most typical of which was crypto KOL Larp von Trier's "I would rather die poor than support celebrity coins." A series of FUDs led to a large number of Mother sell-offs, and the price of the coin once fell to $0.004545, but this also provided a good opportunity for large investors to build positions.

  • Enhanced liquidity: The breakthrough benefit of listing on Bitget. On June 5, Bitget will list MOTHER IGGY (MOTHER) in the Innovation Zone and Meme Zone. Listing on Bitget gives Mother a stronger endorsement and more funds to participate, making Mother surpass other celebrity memes and become the leader.

Summarize

At present, the market's understanding of Mother is still in a state of great divergence. On the one hand, Mother is actively expanding its application scenarios, such as purchasing goods and paying Onlyfans fees, but at the same time, groups represented by Vitalik have also expressed very negative views on celebrity memes. Its subsequent market performance still faces great uncertainty, and can only be tested by time.

Project 2. IO.NET (AI+Depin, Binance Launchpool)

IO.NET is a decentralized computing network that supports the development, execution, and scaling of ML applications on the Solana blockchain, bringing together 1 million GPUs to form the world's largest GPU cluster and DePIN. IO.NET aggregates GPUs from underutilized sources such as independent data centers, crypto miners, and crypto projects such as Filecoin and Render. These resources are combined in a decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN), enabling engineers to access massive computing power in an accessible, customizable, cost-effective, and easy-to-implement system.

Financing

IO.NET has raised $40 million through two rounds of private placements, led by Hack VC and participated by top crypto VCs such as OKX Venture and Solana Venture. The latest valuation is $1 billion.

IO.NET will issue IO tokens on June 11 and list the 55th project on Binance LaunchPool.

Source: IO.Net official website

At present, the official has disclosed the relevant content of token economics. Since IO.NET has not issued any tokens yet, we can only refer to the prices in the pre-market trading market (Aevo and Whales Market).

Source: Aevo

The current price of IO.NET on Aevo is 4.33 and the price on Whales Market is 4.26.

According to the IO Launchpool Details** released by Binance, the initial circulating supply of IO is 95 million, the initial total supply is 500 million, and the maximum supply is 800 million. That is, the estimated market value after listing is around US$2 billion, and the FDV is around US$3.2 billion, which is three times the valuation at the time of financing. It is estimated that there will be greater pressure to dump the token in the early stage of opening.

Project prospects

  • Huge and extensive institutional support. IO.NET has received investment from almost all crypto participants, including exchanges, public chains, and market makers, and has also landed on Binance's Launchpool. Combined with the recent strong performance of BNB and the good returns of the previous Megadrop, IO.NET has basically met market expectations and is undoubtedly a star project.

  • Depin+AI track hits the market hotspot. Nvidia's market value exceeded 3 trillion two days ago, surpassing Apple, which brought a huge boost to the entire AI sector. Coupled with the current trend of Meme and AI leading the market alternately in the current crypto market, IO.NET has the right time, place and people.

Summarize

Recently, the entire market has been focusing on Meme, and value coins are in an awkward situation where no one cares about them. IO.NET is very good in all aspects, and we hope that with the help of the explosion of IO.NET, the market attention will be drawn back to institutional coins and lead a new wave of growth.

The above is the main content of WolfDAO's weekly report. Welcome to discuss interactively.

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