June 11 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

A small waterfall of avalanches, will the market continue to fall? How is the real account?

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I. Core Views

1- The weekend emphasized that this week's macro data is very important, the market expectations are pessimistic, and the doomsday option Gamma takes off;

2- ETF has a slight net outflow, the funding rate is -11%, and the implied volatility of the doomsday ETH has risen to 70 vol

3- Although the avalanche targets such as sol have fallen, the option contract has not risen at the end of June

Today, a fundamental research report on a mainstream target will be issued. There may be some good ways to play this target in the future, so I will keep it a secret for now.

Summary: Although I personally recovered a lot of cash flow, I made a tip in May, but I am still subjectively bullish, but I didn't add any leverage on the put side, it was unnecessary. (Premium is too low + don't like high MM)

2. Option bulk trading

btc The largest one-to-one bulk yesterday was 762 positions (the year-end RR bullish strategy was made, and the put endpoint was also very cleverly selected, which is worth noting)

sell BTC-27DEC24-60000-P + buy BTC-27DEC24-85000-C

sell BTC-28JUN24-65000-P + buy BTC-28JUN24-75000-C

eth Yesterday, another player started to buy a large number of bullish positions in the Doomsday Round. The first strategy was more than 10,000 [The Doomsday Round strategy should be taken seriously, and large amounts should not be followed]

buy ETH-21JUN24-3800-C

buy ETH-21JUN24-3850-C + sell ETH-21JUN24-3900-C

sol Updated (see planet)

3. Macro market

Yesterday, 300 and 50 large stocks fell a lot, while the small theme indexes that led the decline last week stabilized. The risks of small stocks have been emphasized earlier, and now is not the time to further emphasize the risks. It is very similar to the market on February 5. This stage should be a good time for players with the ability to explore. Of course, I subjectively know that this is not easy for most investors.

Yesterday, the theme stabilized and blue chips made up for the decline. In the absence of major changes in the macro environment, the subjective bullish thinking believes that the adjustment is almost in place. In the 3-5 year cycle dimension, some high-quality, high-win rate targets are easy to double.