July 9 Crypto Options Market Research Report

Fidelity and other institutions have updated their S1 documents. It is expected that ETF will be approved this week, but the options market has put a lot of buying. Will it rise or fall?

I. Core Views

1- Ethereum's ETF expectations are likely to be clear. Event volatility forecasts will be released this week. Private class students can see if my bold prediction of implied volatility is accurate.

2- VanEck previously submitted the trust of sol, and the market began to hype sol's ETF. Overall, from the perspective of ecology and innovation, this round of sol and ton will be much better than eth. Now eth's fundamentals are only restaking and L2. L2 is not visible to the naked eye and the story can't be told. Restaking and other things have been pua for everyone for a long time. It's not that I'm pessimistic about ether, but that the future is more about asset allocation. How much alpha is compared with BTC? Doubtful.

3- This Friday, the option implied volatility put is relatively more upward, and more funds in the option market position are still inclined to buy insurance thinking. I will neither buy nor sell myself.

Summary: ETF event-driven volatility forecast, wait for the opening. I will consider doing a Sol or Ordi covered call strategy later, and it is in preparation.

2. Options block trading

BTC block bets on leaps in March next year, and there are also 400 positions for the long call spread at the end of the year

Buy BTC-28MAR25-65000-C

Buy BTC-27DEC24-65000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-90000-C

No updates on ETH and SOL

3. Macro market

US stocks will focus more on US debt option strategies in the future. Recently, some high-quality option strategy ETFs have been discovered, such as JEPQ\JEPI\VXX\Svol, etc., and they are being deployed when the time is right

Currently, 2-, 5-, and 10-year US Treasury bonds are at key points

A-shares are also driven by major events. Waiting for the opening, currently betting on volatility bulls

The market is spreading a short essay about being attacked from all sides. Overall, whether financial practitioners, security guards, or taxi drivers have lost confidence. At this time, blindly FUD is meaningless because this is already a consensus.

If we look for information, we should try to find some different viewpoints and thinking logic. Such viewpoints may not be correct, but the probability of success in investment through consensus is extremely small.