In the morning today, BTC went under the important support of $69,000, breaking our local expectations. Moreover, it also broke through the volume level of $68,232 and went significantly lower, currently under $67,000. The declines today are impulsive, but on smaller volumes than on June 7.
In yesterday's big analysis we saw more arguments for growth. But on the next attempt to break through the downward trend from ATH on March 14, the price again received a reaction from sellers and a correction began from this resistance. The number of unsuccessful breakouts of this trend once again shows how important it is for bulls to see its true breakout. A strong upward impulse can develop from it.
In the meantime, the price has again come to test the downward trend since May 21. It also reached the EMA of the 50 day TF, which has not been tested since May 15th. This moving average has now come close to the volume level of $67,088. And all this now is a marker combo of supports. If there is a breakdown, we can see an impulse towards the volume level of $65,892. In a more negative scenario - to the volumetric and mirror level of $64,120.
The uptrend is in force until the body of the daily candlestick the price consolidates below the EMA of the 50 day TF. We still assess the entire movement since March 14 as the fourth corrective wave, which will be followed by the fifth wave of growth. The only question for us now is how long the fourth wave is dragging on. For now, the downward structure remains on the daily TF. And it’s confusing that the price did not reach important supports at the break of the downward trend. The decline, if the trend continues, may last until June 15-16.
At the same time, tomorrow is the release of data on US consumer inflation and the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. And a break in the trend is quite possible if the data turns out to be better than forecasts, and the Fed’s rhetoric is softer than expected. It’s difficult to say anything about rhetoric (except that elections are ahead and the Biden administration is not interested in dumping markets). But expectations for consumer inflation are very modest. Maintaining the level of the previous month for the Index, minimal decline for the Base Index.
The dominance of USDT+USDC today broke through the EMA of the 50 day TF. This is also a minus to our yesterday’s forecast. But you need to wait until the daily candle closes. If the dominance of stablecoins continues to grow and the bodies of the candles on June 11 and 12 are fixed above the EMA, we will wait for an increase in the dominance of stablecoins (and a correction of the crypto market) until June 14-15. The nearest target will be the level of 6.38%.
The dominance of#BTCyesterday reached its peak on June 7th. But in today’s market correction, altcoins still look stronger. At least some of them have not updated their levels since June 7, and today their dominance is decreasing slightly. This growth is the second attempt to return above the global uptrend since November 2022. Support for the entire uptrend from this date until May 21, 2024, when a breakdown occurred and support became resistance.
